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January 20, 2025

TheCost

The Trump administration, its policy timeline, and what each one means for the United States. Scroll to begin.

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The Cost
2025
Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building facade in Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

DOJ Civil Rights Division loses 70%

Mass departures and redirected priorities sharply reduced traditional enforcement of voting, housing and policing law.

~70% of attorneys departed by May 2025Investigations dropped or filings withdrawn in ~30 casesVoting Section redirected to voter-roll maintenance

The Civil Rights Division lost roughly 250 of its attorneys (about 70%) by May 2025 under new leadership that redirected its work toward the President's executive orders, and more than 75% by early 2026.

  • ~70% of DOJ Civil Rights Division attorneys (about 250) had left or were leaving by the end of May 2025; more than 75% had left by early 2026
  • Department dropped investigations and withdrew statements of interest or amicus briefs in some 30 cases, per public court records as reported by NPR
  • Voting Section redirected toward voter-roll maintenance and suspected fraud; the department withdrew from several voting-rights cases
Federal Communications Commission headquarters building at 445 12th Street SW, Washington D.C.
/Media & Institutions

FCC probes broadcasters for political bias

Targeted broadcast probes threatened licenses; the CBS-Skydance merger cleared after a $16M Trump settlement.

CBS 60 Minutes probe opened Jan 2025; NPR/PBS investigated Jan 30, 2025Paramount paid Trump $16M; FCC approved the $8B Skydance merger July 24, 2025No licenses revoked as of June 2026

FCC Chair Brendan Carr reopened complaints against major networks and investigated public broadcasters. Paramount settled Trump's 60 Minutes suit for $16M and the FCC approved its Skydance merger in July 2025; no licenses were revoked, but the FCC's Democratic commissioner, Anna Gomez, said the probes had a "chilling effect."

  • CBS "60 Minutes" investigation opened January 2025; Carr stated as of April 2025 "all options remain on the table"
  • NPR and PBS member station investigation opened January 30, 2025
  • FCC Democratic commissioner Anna Gomez publicly stated the probes create a "chilling effect" antithetical to the First Amendment
Aerial view of Greenland's Cape Farewell Archipelago showing fjords, mountains and ice
/Foreign Policy

US threatens to take Greenland, Panama Canal, Canada

Threats toward allies strained relations while Canada retaliated against US tariffs.

Canada imposed 25% counter-tariffs on C$30B of US goods, plus steel, aluminum and autosDenmark committed ~$4.3B in extra Arctic defenseNo territory acquired

Trump refused to rule out military force to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal, and said he would use "economic force" to make Canada part of the US. Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs against US tariffs, and Panama's president denied that China has influence over the canal. No territory was acquired.

  • Denmark committed ~$4.3 billion (DKK 27.4 billion) extra Arctic/North Atlantic defense spending - October 2025
  • Canada imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion of US goods (March 4, 2025), then on C$29.8 billion of US steel, aluminum and other goods (March 13) and on non-CUSMA-compliant US vehicles (April 9); on September 1, 2025 it removed most of them, keeping those on steel, aluminum and autos
  • Atlantic Council warned the Greenland threats constitute "NATO's darkest hour"
United States Capitol building, Washington D.C., June 2024
/Rule of Law

$TRUMP memecoin creates foreign-access conflict

Top token holders, most likely foreign per House Democrats, won a private dinner with the president; the SEC dropped its Coinbase case.

$27B+ fully diluted value; 19 of top 25 holders likely foreign (House Dems)Disclosures: Trump made at least $1.4B from crypto ventures in 2025GENIUS Act's ethics clause does not mention the president

Trump launched a memecoin three days before inauguration; its top 220 holders were invited to a private dinner, and a House Judiciary Democrats report found more than half were likely foreign. The SEC dropped its case against Coinbase, and the same report says the administration halted investigations of crypto firms that donated to Trump or invested in his ventures.

  • House Judiciary Committee Democrats estimated the Trump family earned $800 million+ from crypto sales in the first half of 2025, with total crypto holdings of $11.6 billion as of mid-2025
  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal, ranking member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, opened a preliminary inquiry into $TRUMP, World Liberty Financial, and associated ventures
  • House Judiciary Democrats found that administration intervened to halt or terminate federal investigations of multiple crypto firms that had donated to Trump or invested in his companies
Lyndon B. Johnson Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Education, Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

Federal DEI offices eliminated; courts clear the orders

Executive orders closed diversity offices; an appeals court vacated the block on private-sector provisions.

Federal DEI offices and CDO roles closed in 2025 (total count unconfirmed)Private-sector injunction stayed Mar 2025, vacated by 4th Circuit Feb 6, 2026Anti-DEI EOs now enforceable; case remanded

Inauguration-day executive orders ended all equity action plans, diversity offices, and DEI performance requirements across federal agencies. A court briefly blocked the private-sector enforcement provisions, but the Fourth Circuit stayed that order and then vacated it in February 2026, leaving the orders enforceable.

  • Agencies were ordered to close DEIA offices and positions; NPR reported the administration was firing hundreds and perhaps thousands of federal workers in the crackdown, many of whom were not in DEI jobs; no confirmed total count exists
  • D. Md. court issued nationwide preliminary injunction Feb. 21, 2025 blocking the private-sector provisions (NADOHE v. Trump (AAUP co-plaintiff)); the Fourth Circuit stayed it Mar 14, 2025 and vacated it Feb 6, 2026, permitting enforcement
  • Executive Order 14173 directs each federal agency to identify up to nine potential civil compliance investigations of large private-sector or university DEI programs
Aerial view of the NIH Clinical Research Center, Bethesda, Maryland
/Civil Rights

Over $3B in university research disrupted

NIH and NSF grant terminations disrupted labs, cut PhD admissions and paused hiring.

~$2.3B NIH (nearly 2,500 grants) + ~$700M NSF disrupted (Brennan Center)Over $3B total; ~$1.4B still frozen at the start of 2026~3,800 NIH and NSF grants terminated or frozen in 2025 (Science News)

Thousands of research grants targeting DEI, vaccine hesitancy, and LGBTQ+ health were frozen or cancelled, totaling over $3 billion per the Brennan Center. Two-thirds of terminated funding was destined for public universities, and universities paused hiring and cut PhD admissions.

  • ~$2.3B in NIH grants (nearly 2,500) plus ~$700M in NSF grants disrupted in 2025 - over $3 billion total per the Brennan Center, with ~$1.4 billion still frozen or cancelled at the start of 2026; a Science News dataset counts ~3,800 NIH and NSF grants terminated or frozen
  • NSF new-award volume fell sharply in 2025 (a frequently cited estimate is ~25% below the prior decade average, not independently confirmed); disproportionate targeting of DEI and LGBTQ+ research
  • Universities froze hiring, laid off staff and scaled back graduate training programs amid the funding cuts
High-level UN ceremony for Paris Agreement ratification deposits, September 2016
/Environment & Energy

US exits Paris climate accord again

The US left the accord in January 2026; the order also revoked the US international climate-finance plan.

Withdrawal effective Jan 27, 2026US climate-finance commitments revokedFirst nation to withdraw twice

Trump ordered withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on inauguration day. The US formally departed a year later, on January 27, 2026; the order also revoked the U.S. International Climate Finance Plan and directed an end to US financial commitments under the UN climate convention.

  • US officially departed the Paris Agreement on 2026-01-27, the first nation to withdraw twice. The UN confirmed receipt of the notification in January 2025.
  • EO 14162 ordered the immediate cessation or revocation of any US financial commitment made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and revoked the U.S. International Climate Finance Plan.
Oil refinery on the Mississippi River near New Orleans, Louisiana
/Environment & Energy

Energy emergency expedites fossil-fuel permitting

Emergency declaration fast-tracked oil and gas while excluding wind and solar.

6,027 new oil and gas permits approved in 202522 lease sales covering ~328,000 acresWind and solar excluded from emergency coverage

EO 14156 invoked emergency authorities to accelerate fossil-fuel and critical-mineral development through emergency permitting and consultation procedures. Its definition of "energy" omits wind and solar, which received no equivalent fast-track.

  • BLM approved 6,027 new oil and gas permits in 2025 - more than any year in the past 15 - and held 22 lease sales generating over $356.6 million, leasing approximately 328,000 acres across 369 parcels in 10 states.
  • The order's definition of "energy" omits wind and solar, so those technologies do not receive the emergency's expedited permitting pathways.
Burbo Bank Offshore Wind Farm in the Irish Sea off the Wirral, UK
/Environment & Energy

Five offshore wind projects halted mid-construction

Suspensions were reversed by courts within weeks; all five projects resumed construction in early 2026.

Five projects paused Dec 22, 2025, citing national securityAll 5 stop-work orders lifted by courts Jan-Feb 2026Administration dropped appeals; deadline lapsed April 2026

After an initial wind memo was vacated, the administration suspended five active East Coast offshore wind projects in December 2025. Federal courts lifted every stop-work order between Jan 12 and Feb 2, 2026, construction resumed, and the administration let the appeal deadline lapse in April 2026.

  • The Interior Department paused five East Coast offshore wind projects under construction on December 22, 2025 (Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Sunrise Wind, Empire Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind), citing national security risks including radar interference.
  • Dominion Energy said it was losing $5 million per day while Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind was halted; a federal judge lifted that stop-work order on January 16, 2026.
  • Federal courts lifted all five December 2025 stop-work orders between Jan 12 and Feb 2, 2026 (Revolution Wind, Empire Wind, Vineyard Wind, Sunrise Wind, plus Coastal Virginia), and construction resumed on every project.
Aerial view of the Crescent Dunes concentrated solar energy project, Nevada, June 2017
/Environment & Energy

$34.8B in clean-energy investment canceled

For the first time since 2022, cancellations outpaced new clean-energy announcements nearly 3-to-1.

$34.8B canceled; 38,000+ jobs lost in 2025Cancellations outpaced announcements nearly 3-to-1$19.9B of cancellations in Republican congressional districts

Companies abandoned nearly three dollars of clean-energy investment for every dollar announced in 2025, according to Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2). SK On withdrew a $2.8 billion Tennessee battery factory; Ford canceled an Ohio EV plant.

  • Companies canceled $34.8 billion in US clean-energy investments in 2025, with 38,000 current and future jobs lost - for the first time cancellations outpaced new announcements nearly 3-to-1.
  • SK On withdrew a $2.8 billion, 3,300-job Tennessee battery factory; Ford canceled an Ohio EV plant; $19.9 billion of total cancellations fell in Republican congressional districts.
Bears Ears buttes viewed along UT-261, southeastern Utah
/Environment & Energy

Federal lands opened to expanded oil leasing

BLM approved the most drilling permits in 15 years while royalty rates on public oil and gas were cut.

6,027 drilling permits in 2025 - most in 15+ years22 lease sales, $356.6M generated1.56M ANWR coastal acres opened to leasing

Emergency declarations, secretarial orders, and reconciliation legislation accelerated oil and gas leasing on federal lands while reducing the royalty rates companies pay on publicly owned resources.

  • BLM approved 6,027 drilling permits in 2025 - the most in 15+ years - and held 22 lease sales covering approximately 328,000 acres across 369 parcels generating $356.6 million.
  • DOI opened the full 1.56 million-acre ANWR Coastal Plain to oil and gas leasing, replacing the Biden-era leasing program with the earlier Trump-era plan.
  • Roughly 244,000 of the ~327,000 acres leased in 2025 were leased at the reduced 12.5% royalty rate, an estimated $489 million in foregone royalty revenue from projected production, per Taxpayers for Common Sense
Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, D.C., adjacent to the White House
/Federal Government

DOGE created with sweeping data access

The order opened agency systems to DOGE while Elon Musk, whose companies hold billions in federal contracts, served in the White House as a special government employee.

SpaceX was awarded 100 federal contracts worth $3B in 2023Agencies ordered to form DOGE teams within 30 daysMore than a dozen court cases by March 2025

Trump's executive order gave DOGE access to all unclassified agency records and IT systems. The order did not name Elon Musk, whose companies hold billions in federal contracts; the White House said he served as a special government employee, a role with lighter ethics and disclosure obligations than full-time officials.

  • DOGE teams gained access to data systems at Treasury, the Social Security Administration, OPM, and the Education and Labor departments within weeks, drawing more than a dozen court cases by March 2025.
  • Musk's companies hold billions of dollars in federal contracts - SpaceX alone was awarded 100 contracts worth $3 billion in 2023, according to the New York Times as reported by CBS News - while special government employees face lighter ethics and disclosure obligations than full-time officials.
  • DOGE reached its scheduled July 2026 sunset, though some of its staffers continued working at federal agencies; a GAO report released in August 2026 found DOGE's published savings tally incorrect or unsupported in places.
South side of the White House, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

Schedule F strips ~8,000 workers' protections

At-will reclassification covers senior policy-role civil servants across regulatory agencies.

~8,000 positions reclassified in June 2026 (OPM had estimated 50,000)OPM finalized regulations Feb 2026Covers GS-15 and equivalent policy-influencing positions

Trump reinstated Schedule F on inauguration day. OPM estimated it could cover about 50,000 positions, but the June 2026 order moved nearly 8,000, nearly all at the GS-15 level, into an at-will category without standard adverse-action procedures or MSPB appeal rights.

  • OPM issued final regulations implementing Schedule Policy/Career in February 2026, removing statutory adverse-action procedures and MSPB appeal rights for positions placed in the new schedule; the announcement did not say how many positions would be moved.
  • The June 2026 list of reclassified positions spans the executive branch: the Defense Department listed the most position codes (more than 1,600), followed by Homeland Security (571) and Health and Human Services (400); roles include division heads, program managers and officials overseeing spending and grants.
  • A June 3, 2026 executive order moved nearly 8,000 positions, nearly all at the GS-15 level, into Schedule Policy/Career - far below OPM's initial estimate of 50,000.
Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, Washington, D.C., former USAID headquarters location
/Federal Government

USAID shut down; aid cuts tied to 9.4M projected deaths

The US eliminated its development agency, which had provided aid in more than 100 countries.

83% of programs (5,200 contracts) cancelled by March 2025Agency officially closed July 1, 2025Lancet (Feb 2026) projects 9.4M additional deaths by 2030 from US and other donors' aid cuts

A 90-day foreign-aid pause escalated to cancellation of 83% of USAID programs by March 2025, halting programs including HIV/AIDS treatment, malaria prevention and Ebola containment; USAID officially closed July 1, 2025.

  • 83% of USAID programs (approx. 5,200 contracts) cancelled by March 10, 2025; agency officially closed July 1, 2025.
  • Lancet medical journal study (February 2026) projected at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030 attributable to global aid cuts.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$6Bnow20352040
medium confidence$6.00B by 2035·$6.00B by 2040
Internal Revenue Service Building in the Federal Triangle, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

IRS loses 31% of auditors nationwide

Buyouts and firings cost the IRS nearly a third of its auditors, the agents who typically handle wealthy and corporate taxpayers.

3,600 revenue agents (31%) lost by March 2025Yale Budget Lab projects $323B in forfeited revenue over decadeEach $1 auditing top 0.1% can return ~$26, per advocacy group Better IRS

Nearly a third of IRS revenue agents left through deferred resignation or firing in the first three months of 2025, during DOGE's cost-cutting push. The Yale Budget Lab projected hundreds of billions of dollars in forgone tax revenue over a decade.

  • IRS lost approximately 3,600 revenue agents (31%) in the first three months of 2025, per a Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report issued May 2, 2025.
  • Yale Budget Lab projected $323 billion in forfeited tax revenue over ten years from reduced IRS auditing and compliance activity.
  • An updated Yale Budget Lab analysis (April 2026) estimated that the reduction of almost 28,000 IRS staff in 2025 decreases federal revenue by $597.8 billion over 2026-2035.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$1.1Tnow20352040
medium confidence$597.80B by 2035·$1.08T by 2040
Social Security Administration Metro West Tower and Complex, Baltimore, Maryland
/Federal Government

SSA loses 7,500 workers; benefits delayed

The largest SSA staffing cut degraded service for 75 million beneficiaries.

7,500 employees lost - lowest staffing since 1967Disability hearing backlog grew by 73,000 cases12M+ unprocessed local office transactions as of Dec 2025

Social Security Administration staffing fell to its lowest level since 1967. By May 2025 callers waited an average of 1 hour 45 minutes to reach an agent, and the disability hearing backlog grew by 73,000 cases between January 2025 and February 2026.

  • Average SSA phone wait time reached 1 hour 45 minutes by May 2025; fewer than half of callers reached a representative. By January 2026, staffing was the lowest since 1967.
  • Disability hearing backlog grew by 73,000 cases (Jan 2025 - Feb 2026), with 344,000 appeals pending; 12 million+ unprocessed local office transactions as of December 2025.
  • By April 2026, SSA had lost more than 8,000 workers (14%) since January 2025; 42 states and DC saw SSA staff losses greater than 10%, per OPM data analyzed by CBPP.
United States Capitol Building, Washington, D.C., seat of Congress which holds the power of appropriations
/Federal Government

Appropriated funds withheld; GAO finds violations

GAO cited multiple Impoundment Control Act violations as spending control shifted to the executive.

GAO found multiple ICA violations$4.9B USAID 'pocket rescission' in Aug 2025Appeals court limited who can sue over funding freezes

The administration withheld funds for energy, health, and foreign-aid programs from day one. The GAO ruled repeatedly that these actions violated the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, but the administration treated the $4.9 billion USAID cancellation as a unilateral rescission.

  • GAO issued a legal opinion finding Trump violated the ICA regarding the Renew America's Schools Program (July 2025).
  • Administration executed a "pocket rescission" of $4.9 billion in USAID funds in August 2025 - a maneuver GAO has ruled has no legal basis under the ICA.
  • On September 26, 2025, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 emergency order, allowed the administration to withhold more than $4 billion in foreign aid covered by the pocket rescission.
Yosemite Valley and Tenaya Creek in Yosemite National Park, California
/Federal Government

National Parks lose 24% of permanent staff

Ninety parks reported staffing impacts by July 2025, from shorter visitor-center hours to degraded emergency response.

1,700+ full-time workers forced out in the first six weeks of 202590 parks reported staffing impactsNearly 70 parks reduced visitor center hours or services

Probationary firings and deferred resignations forced out more than 1,700 full-time National Park Service workers in the first six weeks of 2025. By July, 90 parks reported staffing impacts, and parks including Yosemite and Joshua Tree reported degraded search-and-rescue capacity.

  • According to NPCA's review of park operational-status reports, 90 national parks reported staffing impacts by July 2025: nearly 70 reduced visitor center hours or services, 22 postponed maintenance, and 11 closed or delayed opening facilities.
  • More than 1,700 full-time NPS workers - about 1,000 fired probationary employees and about 700 who took buyouts - were forced out in the first six weeks of 2025. By late 2025, the National Parks Conservation Association, citing Park Service records, put the loss at more than 4,000 permanent employees, a 24% decline.
WHO headquarters main building in Geneva, Switzerland, viewed from the north
/Foreign Policy

US exits the World Health Organization

The exit ended US participation in WHO flu surveillance and cut off disease data other countries share for early pandemic warning.

Formal exit Jan 22, 2026WHO announced plans to cut ~2,300 jobs (25% of staff)US left GISRS flu-strain surveillance network, operating since 1952

Trump ordered WHO withdrawal and halted US funding on inauguration day. The US formally exited a year later, losing access to flu-strain data and global disease early-warning networks.

  • Formal US exit effective 2026-01-22, one year after the executive order
  • WHO announced plans to eliminate ~2,300 positions (25% of staff) by summer 2026 due to funding loss
  • US participation in Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) - operational since 1952 - ceased
Colorized transmission electron micrograph of a measles virus particle
/Health & Science

Worst US measles outbreak since 2000

More than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026 put measles-elimination status at risk for the first time since 2000.

2,289 cases in 2025 - highest since elimination3 deaths in the 2025 outbreak; Pa. reported 4 more in 2026About 280,000 kindergartners lacked documented MMR vaccination (2025-26)

A west Texas outbreak spread to dozens of states in 2025, producing the most cases since elimination and the first US measles deaths in a decade. Kindergarten vaccination rates had been sliding for years, and public-health experts warn that federal vaccine-skeptic messaging risks deepening that decline.

  • 2,289 US measles cases in full-year 2025; highest since elimination declared in 2000; 3 deaths in the 2025 southwest outbreak
  • 3,659 confirmed cases in 2026 as of September 24, 2026, from 40 new outbreaks; more than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026
  • Kindergarten MMR coverage 92.5% in 2024-25 and 92.4% in 2025-26, below the 95% threshold; about 280,000 kindergartners lacked documentation of completing the MMR series in 2025-26
Panoramic view of the United States Supreme Court Building at dusk
/Immigration

Supreme Court rules against birthright-citizenship order

An order denying citizenship to US-born children whose parents are neither citizens nor permanent residents was blocked within days.

Blocked Jan 23, 2025 as 'blatantly unconstitutional'22 states suedSupreme Court ruled 6-3 against the order June 30, 2026

On inauguration day Trump signed an order denying birthright citizenship to children born to parents who are neither US citizens nor permanent residents. Federal courts blocked it within days, and on June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against it: five justices held it violates the Fourteenth Amendment, and Justice Kavanaugh agreed on statutory grounds only.

  • Injunctions from federal district courts (universal injunctions in Maryland, Washington and Massachusetts in February 2025, then a nationwide class-wide injunction in New Hampshire in July 2025) kept the order from ever taking effect.
  • Supreme Court accepted the case December 5, 2025 for its 2025-26 term; oral arguments held April 1, 2026.
  • Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against the order in Trump v. Barbara (June 30, 2026): a five-justice majority held that children born in the US to parents unlawfully or temporarily present are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment; Justice Kavanaugh concurred in the judgment on statutory grounds only, and Justices Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch dissented.
Central American migrants resting in southern Mexico during transit north
/Immigration

Refugee admissions suspended; cap at 7,500

The suspension forced resettlement-agency layoffs and left pre-vetted families stranded.

10,000+ pre-approved refugee flights canceledFY 2026 cap 7,500 (94% below FY 2025), raised to 17,500 in May 2026220+ Houston resettlement jobs cut by March 2025

An inauguration-day order suspended all refugee admissions, and flights for more than 10,000 pre-approved refugees were canceled. Two Houston resettlement agencies alone cut more than 220 jobs by March 2025.

  • Flights for over 10,000 pre-approved refugees canceled within days of the January 27 suspension; 22,000 recently arrived refugees lost federally funded services.
  • Houston resettlement agencies laid off staff: Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston (120, February 2025) and Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston (101, March 2025).
  • FY 2026 cap set at 7,500 in late October 2025 - 94% below FY 2025 level - and designated primarily for South African Afrikaners.
ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations agents in tactical gear during a Los Angeles operation, June 12, 2025
/Immigration

ICE arrests surge; 290,000 removed

Most people in ICE detention in November 2025 had no criminal conviction; removals ran only 7% above FY 2024.

821 arrests/day average, Jan-Oct 2025290,603 total removals through Nov 202573.6% of Nov 2025 detainees had no criminal convictions

ICE sharply expanded interior arrests, averaging 821 a day in the first ten months of 2025 and reaching nearly 50,000 in July 2026. Nearly three-quarters of those detained in November 2025 had no criminal conviction, and 43% of Hispanic adults surveyed worried about being asked to prove their status.

  • Daily average ICE arrest rate: 821/day (Jan 20-Oct 15, 2025); 290,603 total removals through November 15, 2025.
  • 73.6% of 65,135 detainees held November 16, 2025, had no criminal convictions; 96.9% of the surge in detentions during one government-shutdown period had no criminal history.
  • Pew Research (November 2025): 43% of Hispanic adults worried about proving status in daily life, up from 31% in March 2025; 19% changed daily routines due to fear.
ICE headquarters building in Washington DC, 2009
/Immigration

Record 33 deaths in ICE custody

Deaths tripled from 2024 as detention population surged 70% and inspections fell 36%.

33 deaths in 2025 (revised up from 32)57 deaths since Jan 2025, through Aug 23, 2026Detention population rose from 39,000 to 68,000+

ICE's detention population grew from 39,000 to over 68,000 as enforcement ramped up while facility inspections dropped 36%. Deaths nearly tripled versus 2024 to 33 in 2025 and kept climbing into 2026, reaching 57 deaths since January 2025 by August 23, 2026, per ICE records.

  • 33 deaths in ICE custody in 2025 (KFF revised up from 32) - three times the 11 deaths in 2024 and the most in more than two decades.
  • Cumulative deaths since January 2025 reached roughly 52 or more by June 2026, as deaths continued at about one per week (at least 17 in 2026 by April 21; 19+ by June 4) - well past the frozen 46 figure recorded through March 18, 2026.
  • ICE detention inspection reports published fell 36.25% in 2025 vs. prior year, per POGO analysis.
ICE and DHS agents detaining a man during a January 2025 enforcement operation
/Immigration

170+ US citizens wrongfully detained

Database errors and mass enforcement led to detention of US citizens and children.

170+ US citizens documented detained in 2025Children in ICE detention rose from ~25/day to ~170/day1,600+ children held beyond 20-day court limit

ProPublica documented more than 170 US citizens detained by immigration agents, some due to database errors. More than 1,600 children were held beyond the 20-day Flores settlement limit in inadequate conditions.

  • 170+ US citizens documented detained in 2025 (ProPublica investigation, October 2025); congressional leaders demanded DHS/ICE investigation in August 2025.
  • Children in ICE detention rose from ~25/day (Biden) to ~170/day (Trump), with 400+ on peak days; over 6,200 children booked since January 2025 (as of April 2026).
  • More than 1,600 children held longer than the 20-day court-ordered limit (as of April 2026); conditions included moldy food, worm-infested meals, and inadequate medical care.
United States Capitol building, western front, Washington D.C.
/Rule of Law

~1,500 January 6 defendants pardoned

The clemency order voided the largest criminal prosecution in DOJ history, which ranged from trespass to seditious conspiracy.

~1,500 pardons on inauguration day97+ pardoned individuals arrested, charged or convicted in separate cases since Jan. 6 (12 allegedly offended after their pardon)One pardoned participant received life sentence for child sex abuse in 2026

Trump pardoned roughly 1,500 people charged with crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack -- nearly everyone federally prosecuted -- and commuted the sentences of 14 others, including Oath Keepers leaders Stewart Rhodes and Kelly Meggs. DOJ then expanded pardons to cover related gun and drug charges.

  • As of June 2026, at least 97 of the pardoned individuals had been arrested for, charged with, or convicted of crimes separate from January 6 since the attack -- including 14 sex-crime/CSAM charges, 28 gun offenses, 20 DUI/intoxication charges, and 41 violent crimes; at least 12 allegedly committed new offenses after their pardon (including child molestation, deadly conduct, burglary, and threats)
  • Andrew Paul Johnson, a pardoned Jan. 6 participant, was sentenced to life in prison in 2026 for child sex abuse, having been arrested months after his pardon
  • DOJ expanded pardons in February 2025 to cover separate gun and drug charges that stemmed from Jan. 6 investigation searches but were not directly connected to the Capitol breach
United States Government Accountability Office building at 441 G Street NW, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

17 inspectors general fired without notice

A single night of firings left major agencies without independent watchdogs during DOGE cuts.

17 IGs fired Jan 24, 202575%+ of IG slots vacant by Oct 2025Defense IG's office reportedly reviewing SpaceX compliance when fired

The administration fired 17 sitting inspectors general by late-night email, violating the IG Act's 30-day notice requirement. By fall 2025, more than three-quarters of presidentially-appointed IG positions were vacant across agencies overseeing hundreds of billions in spending.

  • As of October 2025, more than 75% of presidentially appointed inspector general positions were vacant, due to the firings, later resignations and vacancies carried over from the prior administration, according to the Partnership for Public Service.
  • Defense Department IG Robert Storch was among those fired; in December 2024 the New York Times had reported that his office was among those reviewing SpaceX's compliance with federal security-reporting rules.
  • On September 24, 2025, U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes (D.D.C.) ruled the firings violated the Inspector General Act but declined to reinstate the fired IGs.
J. Edgar Hoover Building, FBI Headquarters, Washington D.C., June 2024
/Rule of Law

DOJ fires prosecutors; FBI leadership ousted

DOJ fired career prosecutors who worked on Trump-related cases, saying their employment 'hindered' the president's agenda, and ordered eight senior FBI executives out.

8 senior FBI executives ordered out by Feb 3, 202512+ career prosecutors from Jack Smith's team firedDOJ demanded a list of potentially thousands of FBI agents for review

The administration fired career prosecutors assigned to Trump-related cases and dismissed the FBI's top national security, cyber, and criminal division executives.

  • Eight senior FBI executives ordered terminated by February 3, 2025, including the executive assistant directors over the criminal, national security, and cyber divisions
  • Over a dozen career prosecutors from Jack Smith's special counsel team fired by late January 2025; DOJ demanded list of potentially thousands of FBI agents for review by February 4, 2025
  • PBS News reported FBI and DOJ were struggling to "rebuild after wave of resignations and firings"
Herbert C. Hoover Federal Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

75,000 federal workers accept resignation buyout

Mass simultaneous departures created agency knowledge gaps at a paid-leave cost GAO estimated at $6.7B for 2025.

~75,000 employees accepted$6.7B paid-leave cost in 2025, per GAO (~144,000 takers)Offer: full pay and benefits through Sept 30, 2025

OPM emailed all 2.3 million federal employees offering full pay through September 30 in exchange for immediate cessation of work. Tens of thousands of experienced civil servants left simultaneously, creating institutional knowledge gaps.

  • Approximately 75,000 federal employees accepted the buyout, per White House figures reported February 2025.
  • In an earlier estimate, deferred resignation payments across all 2025 rounds - taken by an estimated 137,000 employees - cost about $4.5 billion in salary and benefits paid to employees not working, per the Partnership for Public Service (reported by Federal News Network, April 2026).
  • GAO estimated that $6.7 billion of the $9.5 billion agencies spent on paid administrative leave in 2025 was tied to the deferred resignation program, which about 144,312 employees took; paid-leave workdays rose to about 21.6 million in 2025 from about 4.4 million in 2024

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$7Bnow20352040
medium confidence$6.70B by 2035·$6.70B by 2040
Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts exterior along the Potomac River in Washington D.C.
/Media & Institutions

Kennedy Center board replaced; artists boycott

Political takeover triggered 20+ show cancellations and a blocked attempt to rename the venue.

20+ show cancellations or postponements by March 2025Board voted Dec 2025 to rename venue after TrumpFederal court ordered Trump name removed by June 2026

Trump fired the existing Kennedy Center board and installed political allies. Artists and productions, including Hamilton, withdrew from scheduled performances. A federal court later blocked a board vote to rename the national performing arts venue after Trump.

  • 20+ show cancellations or postponements by March 2025, confirmed by the Kennedy Center; further cancellations followed the December renaming
  • Board voted December 2025 to rename venue "The Donald J. Trump and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts"
  • A federal judge (Christopher Cooper), ruling in Rep. Joyce Beatty's lawsuit, ordered Trump's name removed from the building and barred the center's closure; crews removed the name in June 2026

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$257Mnow20352040
medium confidence$257M by 2035·$257M by 2040
Aerial view of the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach from San Pedro, California
/Economy & Trade

25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Tariffs on the two largest US trading partners were projected to raise prices (Brookings) and triggered retaliation.

Canada imposed 25% counter-tariffs on C$30B in US goods (March 2025)IEEPA legal basis struck down Feb 2026USMCA-qualifying goods exempted from March 7, 2025

Trump invoked emergency authority to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, undercutting the USMCA agreement his own administration had negotiated. Canada retaliated the day the tariffs took effect; from March 7, goods qualifying under USMCA were exempted.

  • Canada imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion of U.S. goods (including orange juice, appliances and apparel) effective March 4, 2025, later adding tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum and autos; it removed the C$30 billion tranche on September 1, 2025.
  • Yale Budget Lab estimated all 2025 tariffs (including Canada/Mexico duties) cost the average U.S. household an equivalent of $2,400 in lost income in the short run (as of August 2025).
United States Treasury Building, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

DOGE reached Treasury systems before vetting was done

DOGE staff, some before background checks were complete, reached a payment system holding records of nearly every American; a court blocked them, then later allowed access under conditions.

Federal TRO blocking access issued Feb 8, 2025Court lifted the block May 27-28, 2025; four vetted DOGE staffers granted accessDOGE also sought access to IRS taxpayer data

DOGE affiliates accessed the Treasury Bureau of Fiscal Service system containing Social Security numbers, bank accounts, and addresses of virtually all Americans before background checks were complete for some staff. A federal judge blocked further access in February 2025, but in May 2025 the court dissolved the order and let four vetted staffers in under training and financial-disclosure conditions.

  • Federal judge issued TRO blocking DOGE Treasury access on February 8, 2025, and extended it via preliminary injunction on February 21, 2025.
  • Judge Vargas lifted the block on May 27-28, 2025, granting four vetted DOGE staffers (Krause, Whitridge, Corcos, Newnam) access to Treasury payment systems after they completed training and financial-disclosure requirements.
  • In a January 2026 court filing, the Justice Department said a political advocacy group had contacted two members of SSA's DOGE team seeking analysis of state voter rolls, that one signed a "Voter Data Agreement" with the group, and that the administration made two Hatch Act referrals to the Office of Special Counsel; it was unclear whether any personal information was shared.
Aerial view of the National Institutes of Health campus in Bethesda, Maryland
/Federal Government

~3,800 NIH/NSF grants cut or frozen; $3B affected

Grant cancellations disrupted biomedical research with the Supreme Court allowing DEI terminations.

~2,500 NIH grants ($2.3B) and ~1,300 NSF grants ($700M) terminated or frozenSupreme Court allowed $783M in DEI-linked terminations, Aug 2025Largest single cut froze $77M at Northwestern's Lurie Cancer Center

The administration froze or terminated about 3,800 NIH and NSF grants in 2025, including DEI-related, vaccine-hesitancy, environmental-health and gender-health research. Scientific societies warned of a brain drain as researchers lost mid-project funding.

  • Approximately 3,800 grants eliminated or suspended as of November 2025: ~2,500 NIH grants ($2.3 billion) and ~1,300 NSF grants ($700 million).
  • On August 21, 2025 the Supreme Court stayed the lower-court judgments that had vacated NIH grant terminations, letting them proceed; the government described the grants at issue as $783 million tied to 'DEI and gender ideology'
Mexico-US border fence at Tijuana with crosses marking migrant deaths
/Immigration

TPS stripped from 1.5 million residents

TPS terminations for Venezuela, Haiti and other countries affected more than 1.5 million people with legal work authorization.

1.5M+ people lost TPS in 2025Supreme Court allowed Venezuelan termination Oct 2025Supreme Court cleared Haiti/Syria terminations June 25, 2026

DHS Secretary Noem rescinded Temporary Protected Status for Venezuela, Haiti, and at least nine other countries, affecting over 1.5 million people with lawful work authorization. The Supreme Court allowed the Venezuelan termination to take effect while litigation continued, and cleared the Haiti and Syria terminations on June 25, 2026.

  • Trump canceled temporary legal status for more than 1.5 million immigrants in 2025; Venezuelans and Haitians constituted the majority of those affected.
  • Supreme Court order (October 3, 2025) again paused a district court ruling, allowing the Venezuelan TPS termination to proceed while litigation continued.
  • Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Mullin v. Doe (June 25, 2026) that TPS terminations are largely unreviewable, clearing the Haiti and Syria terminations; ~350,000 Haitians and ~6,100 Syrians lose status as work permits expire July 2026.
Port Newark-Elizabeth Marine Terminal, a major US container ship facility on Newark Bay
/Economy & Trade

China tariffs hit 145% in 2025

Initial fentanyl tariffs doubled by March 2025; Liberation Day later drove rates to 145%.

Combined rate reached 145%US imports from China fell to half 2024 levels by June 2025Customs duties rose from $79B (2024) to $264B (2025)

Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports in February 2025 citing fentanyl, then doubled it to 20% in March. Combined with Liberation Day tariffs, the total rate reached 145%, effectively suspending normal US-China trade.

  • U.S. imports from China fell to $18.9 billion in June 2025, about 55% of the June 2024 level ($34.2 billion) and the lowest monthly total since 2009, while the combined tariff rate on Chinese goods was at its 2025 peak levels.
  • The overall U.S. effective tariff rate reached 7.7% in 2025, the highest since 1947, with customs duties collected rising from $79 billion in 2024 to $264 billion in 2025.
ISS satellite view of the Mediterranean Sea coastline showing the Gaza Strip, Ashdod, and surrounding region from space
/Foreign Policy

Trump proposes displacing ~2M Gaza residents

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and UAE all rejected the plan within hours.

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, UAE rejected plan on day oneSen. Graham called it 'problematic at many, many levels'Administration continued exploring redevelopment as of Sept 2025

Trump publicly proposed US 'long-term ownership' of Gaza and asked Egypt and Jordan to permanently accept its approximately 2 million residents. Arab allies immediately rejected the plan; legal scholars questioned whether it could be implemented under international law.

  • Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and UAE rejected the proposal within hours of its announcement - February 2025
  • European diplomats described "widespread shock" at the proposal
  • Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a Trump ally, said the plan would be "problematic at many, many levels"
The Palais des Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, seat of the UN Human Rights Council.
/Foreign Policy

US exits UN rights bodies, defunds UNRWA

An executive order pulled the US from rights and cultural institutions.

Withdrew from UN Human Rights CouncilPermanently cut funding to UNRWAUNESCO exit announced, effective Dec 2026

Trump's February 4 executive order withdrew the US from the UN Human Rights Council, permanently defunded the UNRWA refugee agency, and set in motion a UNESCO exit. A January 2026 memorandum withdrew the US from 66 more international organizations and instruments.

  • US withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council and permanently cut funding to UNRWA
  • Formal withdrawal from UNESCO announced July 2025, effective December 2026
  • A January 2026 presidential memorandum withdrew the US from 66 international organizations and instruments, including 31 UN entities
The Peace Palace in The Hague, a seat of international justice.
/Foreign Policy

US sanctions ICC prosecutor and judges

An executive order authorized sanctions on Court personnel in response to warrants for Israeli leaders.

Prosecutor, 2 deputies, and 9 judges sanctionedIssued over warrants for Netanyahu and GallantJudge enjoined enforcement vs. two US citizens

Trump's Executive Order 14203 imposed sanctions on ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan, his two deputies, and nine judges after the Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. A federal judge later issued a narrow injunction barring enforcement against two US-citizen plaintiffs on First Amendment grounds; the order otherwise remained in effect.

  • Prosecutor Karim Khan, his two deputies, and nine ICC judges sanctioned (the last two judges designated December 18, 2025 and ICC President Tomoko Akane on August 18, 2026), plus ICC Senior Trial Lawyer Abdoulaye Seye
  • Order issued in response to ICC arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu and ex-Defense Minister Gallant
  • A federal judge in Maine (Smith v. Trump) issued a narrow preliminary injunction on July 18, 2025 barring civil or criminal penalties against two US-citizen human rights advocates for providing speech-based services to the ICC, on First Amendment grounds; the executive order and sanctions otherwise remained in effect
The west facade of the Supreme Court of the United States building, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

Three oversight watchdogs fired at once

Removing the OSC, MSPB, and FLRA heads disabled the bodies protecting whistleblowers and fired workers.

3 watchdog leaders firedMSPB lost quorum April 9Removable only 'for cause'

Within days Trump fired the OSC special counsel, an MSPB member three years into a seven-year term, and the FLRA chair, none for any cause alleged. The MSPB then lost its quorum, leaving thousands of fired employees without a functioning appeals board.

  • Whistleblower-protection head Hampton Dellinger terminated without cause alleged
  • MSPB lost its quorum around April 9, leaving thousands of fired workers without appeals
  • D.C. Circuit upheld the Harris firing
Aerial view of the NIH Clinical Center (Building 10) on the NIH campus in Bethesda, Maryland
/Health & Science

NIH indirect-cost cap blocked by courts

A flat overhead cap that would have cut an estimated $5.2B a year from university research was permanently enjoined.

Est. $5.2B projected annual loss to universitiesPermanent injunction issued April 7, 2025Administration dropped Supreme Court appeal April 2026

NIH issued a notice imposing a 15% flat cap on all indirect-cost reimbursements, replacing negotiated rates of 25-65%. A federal judge permanently blocked the policy; the administration ultimately abandoned its appeal.

  • Permanent injunction issued April 7, 2025; policy never took effect for existing grants
  • A Health Affairs Scholar analysis projected universities would lose about $5.24 billion in indirect-cost funding in FY2025 under the cap; the court cited threatened suspension of research, including clinical trials
  • First Circuit upheld the block January 5, 2026; Trump administration abandoned Supreme Court appeal April 2026
Frances Perkins Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

CFPB effectively shuttered; 1,700 jobs targeted

The primary consumer-finance regulator was ordered closed, halting enforcement of lending and debt-collection laws.

200 employees fired; remainder locked out by March 2025Dec 30, 2025 court order blocked defunding; planned furloughs avertedCFPB had returned ~$21B to consumers since 2011

Acting Director Russell Vought ordered the CFPB closed and DOGE accessed its systems, with mass furloughs planned for Dec 31, 2025. A federal judge blocked the defunding on Dec 30, 2025 and the Fed kept the bureau funded through ~March 2026, averting the furloughs, though it has lost roughly a quarter of its staff and outstanding cases moved to DOJ.

  • 200 CFPB employees fired and remaining staff locked out of headquarters by March 2025; mass furloughs announced for December 31, 2025.
  • On December 30, 2025, Judge Amy Berman Jackson blocked the administration's attempt to defund the CFPB, ordering continued Federal Reserve funding; the Fed authorized ~$145 million, funding the bureau through ~March 2026 and averting the planned year-end mass furloughs.
  • Employees stayed on payroll with diminished workloads; the CFPB has lost roughly 25% of its pre-Trump workforce, with RIF litigation still pending (oral argument late February 2026).
The White House seen from the south lawn, with the Washington Monument in the distance.
/Rule of Law

Pardons for fraudsters and corrupt pols

Clemency for people convicted of corruption and fraud, many with donor or political ties, erased repayments a California estimate puts near $2 billion across both terms.

Santos, Blagojevich, the Chrisleys among recipientsFraud convict Milton pardoned; Watson's sentence commuted~$2B in restitution, fines, forfeitures across both terms (Calif. est.)

Trump granted clemency to a string of corrupt politicians and fraud convicts, many tied to donations or loyalty. California's governor's office estimated Trump's clemency across both terms erased nearly $2 billion in restitution, fines, and forfeitures.

  • Trump commuted former Rep. George Santos's prison sentence on October 17, 2025.
  • An analysis by California Gov. Gavin Newsom's office put the total erased by Trump's clemency across both terms at nearly $2 billion in restitution, fines, and forfeitures (more than $1.3 billion of it restitution), noting the figures may include pending requests and double-counted joint obligations.
  • On September 3, 2026 Trump granted 23 pardons and 6 commutations, including a commutation for former Philadelphia IBEW Local 98 leader John Dougherty, convicted of conspiracy to embezzle union and benefit-plan assets, 33 counts of embezzling union assets, 24 counts of wire fraud and honest-services fraud and bribery counts.
Empty James S. Brady Press Briefing Room in the White House West Wing, with podium and press seating
/Media & Institutions

AP stays barred from White House pool after appeals court stay

A district judge ordered AP reinstated, but the D.C. Circuit stayed that order and the exclusion continues.

AP excluded from restricted pool since Feb 11, 2025Reinstatement ordered Apr 8, 2025, then stayed by D.C. Circuit June 6, 2025En banc rehearing denied July 22, 2025; merits appeal ongoing

The White House blocked AP reporters from pool events after AP declined to adopt the executive-order-mandated geographic renaming. A judge ordered reinstatement, but the D.C. Circuit stayed that order and denied en banc rehearing, leaving AP excluded from the restricted press pool through at least late 2025.

  • AP excluded from Oval Office, Air Force One, and pool events from February 11, 2025; exclusion from the restricted press pool continued after the appeals court stay and was still in place at the November 24, 2025 merits argument
  • Judge McFadden issued injunction ordering reinstatement April 8, 2025
  • D.C. Circuit panel (2-1) stayed the reinstatement June 6, 2025 and the full court denied en banc rehearing July 22, 2025; AP stays barred from the restricted pool while the merits appeal proceeds
ArcelorMittal steel plant on the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio
/Economy & Trade

Steel and aluminum tariffs reinstated globally

25% tariffs on all countries raised US input costs and triggered allied retaliation.

John Deere: ~$300M in tariff costs; 200+ workers laid offRates raised to 50% for most countries by June 2025Canada imposed 25% counter-tariffs on C$29.8B of US goods

Trump reinstated steel and aluminum tariffs at 25% and eliminated all country-specific exemptions previously negotiated with allies. Higher input costs cascaded through auto, appliance, and construction sectors.

  • John Deere announced ~$300 million in tariff-related costs on steel and aluminum inputs and laid off more than 200 workers at Illinois and Iowa plants in August 2025.
  • Cox Automotive estimated the steel and aluminum tariffs would add $300 to $500 to the price of a vehicle, on top of the effect of the auto tariffs.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$213Bnow20352040
medium confidence$213.00B by 2035·$213.00B by 2040
Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

~25,000 probationary employees fired; judge rules it unlawful

OPM directed mass firings using 'performance' justifications a judge found pretextual.

~25,000 workers fired mid-February 2025Judge Alsup called it 'a gimmick to avoid the [RIF laws]'Supreme Court stayed the California reinstatement order April 8, 2025

OPM-directed firings swept out about 25,000 probationary federal workers using boilerplate performance justifications that a judge found pretextual. The judge later ruled the firings unlawful but declined to order the workers re-hired.

  • Judge Alsup (N.D. Cal.) found OPM's "performance" termination rationale legally pretextual and constituting a violation of federal RIF statutes (March 13, 2025).
  • The Supreme Court on April 8, 2025 stayed Judge Alsup's order to reinstate about 16,000 workers at six departments, letting those firings stand while litigation continued; a separate Maryland order keeping fired workers at other agencies on paid leave remained in place at the time.
  • In a September 2025 final ruling, Judge Alsup held that OPM unlawfully directed the roughly 25,000 probationary firings, but declined to order the workers re-hired.
NATO member country flags flying at the entrance of NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium
/Foreign Policy

NATO Article 5 commitment publicly questioned

Sustained pressure on allies came alongside public questioning of the mutual-defense guarantee.

Trump questioned Article 5 commitment June 24, 2025Withdrawal of ~5,000 US troops from Germany announced May 2026NATO adopted 5% GDP defense target at Hague summit June 2025

VP Vance accused European democracies of suppressing dissent in a Munich speech; Defense Secretary Hegseth called some allies 'shameful.' Trump said his Article 5 commitment "depends on your definition"; the next day the US joined allies in reaffirming their "ironclad commitment" to it.

  • Vance Munich speech (2025-02-14) received sparse applause; Germany's defense minister publicly rejected the framing
  • Trump questioned Article 5 commitment on June 24, 2025 ("depends on your definition"); the next day the US joined the Hague Summit Declaration reaffirming allies' "ironclad commitment" to Article 5
  • Pentagon announced withdrawal of ~5,000 troops from Germany over 6-12 months (May 2026)
Main entrance to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia
/Health & Science

CDC cuts ~1,300 in DOGE wave

About 1,300 CDC staff, mostly probationary, were cut on February 14, 2025, ahead of deeper April program eliminations.

1,300 employees notified Feb 14, 2025All first-year Epidemic Intelligence Service officers laid offApril 2025 cuts later eliminated lead, gun-violence and other CDC programs

The February 14, 2025 firings targeted probationary CDC employees, including the incoming class of outbreak investigators. A separate April 2025 reduction in force cut about 2,400 more CDC jobs and eliminated whole programs.

  • About 1,300 CDC employees (roughly 10% of the workforce) notified of termination Feb 14, 2025, including all first-year Epidemic Intelligence Service officers
  • The follow-on April 1, 2025 reduction in force cut about 2,400 CDC jobs, eliminating programs on smoking, lead poisoning, gun violence, asthma and occupational safety and hitting HIV, hepatitis and TB work
  • CDC gun-violence prevention and injury-center teams "decimated" in the April 2025 cuts, disrupting research and data collection
The U.S. Department of Justice (Main Justice) building in Washington, D.C.
/Rule of Law

DOJ drops Adams case for cooperation

Dismissal was tied to the mayor's help on immigration; seven prosecutors quit.

Dismissal linked to immigration cooperation7 DOJ lawyers, incl. acting US Attorney, resignedCase dismissed with prejudice April 2, 2025

DOJ leadership ordered SDNY to drop Mayor Eric Adams's corruption case, tying it to his cooperation on immigration enforcement. Seven DOJ lawyers, including the acting US Attorney, resigned, and a judge dismissed the case with prejudice while rebuking the arrangement.

  • Seven Justice Department lawyers, including the acting US Attorney for SDNY, resigned rather than comply with the dismissal order.
  • A federal judge dismissed the Adams case with prejudice on April 2, 2025, barring it from being refiled.
Aerial view of the Pentagon, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Defense, July 2011.
/Foreign Policy

Trump fires top military leaders and JAGs

Joint Chiefs chairman, Navy chief, and service JAGs fired without cause.

6 senior leaders fired in one day, Feb 21, 2025Army, Navy, Air Force top lawyers all removedDan Caine nominated over more senior officers

Trump fired Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. CQ Brown, the Chief of Naval Operations, the Air Force vice chief, and the three service Judge Advocates General on the same day, with no cause given. He nominated retired Lt. Gen. Dan Caine to chair the Joint Chiefs, bypassing more senior officers.

  • Joint Chiefs Chairman, Chief of Naval Operations, Air Force Vice Chief, and three service JAGs fired the same day
  • Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan fired January 21, 2025, the day after inauguration
  • Retired Lt. Gen. Dan Caine nominated to chair Joint Chiefs, bypassing more senior officers
U.S. General Services Administration headquarters building, E Street facade, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

GSA pushes to shed federal leases and buildings

A DOGE-driven push to shed federal office space that critics said outran planning and risked selling public assets short.

~900 lease terminations sent260+ leases terminated or sent termination notices90 owned properties disposed of FY2025

GSA, driven by DOGE, sent about 900 lease terminations to landlords toward a goal of halving federal property, then walked back hundreds. By December 2025 over 260 leases had been terminated or sent notices of intent to terminate, and GSA disposed of 90 owned properties in FY2025. Rep. Greg Stanton said the effort outran planning, with agencies told to vacate before replacement space was ready.

  • About 900 lease terminations sent to landlords, toward an administration goal of halving federal property
  • Over 260 leases terminated or sent a notice of intent to terminate, with GSA estimating ~$112M in annual savings (GAO); 90 owned properties disposed of in FY2025
  • Rep. Greg Stanton said agencies were told to vacate buildings before replacement space was ready
Tornado vortex signature on weather radar, NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
/Environment & Energy

Weather Service enters disaster season understaffed

About 600 of ~4,200 Weather Service positions were lost by spring 2025, ahead of hurricane and tornado seasons.

~800 NOAA employees fired Feb 27, 2025~600 NWS positions lost by spring 2025NOAA down ~2,000 of ~12,000 staff by mid-March 2025

NOAA began firing probationary staff in February 2025, and by spring the National Weather Service had lost about 600 of its roughly 4,200 positions. Five former NWS directors warned the agency was down more than 10% of its staffing heading into severe-storm season.

  • The National Weather Service lost roughly 600 of about 4,200 positions through layoffs, buyouts and retirements by spring 2025, according to the NWS Employees Organization.
  • NOAA was down about 2,000 of roughly 12,000 employees since January 2025 and was preparing more than 1,000 additional layoffs as of mid-March 2025.
White House South Lawn exterior view showing the south facade of the White House
/Foreign Policy

Trump and Vance confront Zelensky publicly

The televised confrontation derailed a planned minerals-deal signing and preceded US military aid suspension; the deal was ultimately signed in April 2025.

Planned Feb 28 minerals signing canceled; deal signed April 30, 2025Military aid suspended within 72 hoursEU Commission proposed ~EUR 800B "ReArm Europe" defense plan March 4

A White House meeting to finalize a US-Ukraine minerals agreement collapsed on camera when Trump and Vance accused Zelensky of ingratitude. Within days Trump paused military aid; after a roughly two-month delay, the US and Ukraine signed the minerals deal on April 30, 2025.

  • Minerals-deal signing was delayed roughly two months from the canceled Feb 28 ceremony, then signed April 30, 2025 (US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund); Ukraine's parliament ratified it May 8, 2025
  • Military aid suspended within 72 hours (2025-03-03) directly in response
  • On March 4, 2025, ahead of a European Council meeting that week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a "ReArm Europe" plan that could mobilise close to EUR 800 billion for defence, including EUR 150 billion in loans to member states
Dale and Betty Bumpers Vaccine Research Center building on the NIH campus in Bethesda, Maryland
/Health & Science

NIH terminates 2,291 active research grants

The mass grant cancellation disrupted 383 clinical trials with more than 74,000 enrolled participants.

2,291 grants and $2.45B in committed funding cancelled383 clinical trials disrupted Feb-Aug 202574,000 trial participants affected

NIH cancelled thousands of active grants, often with little or no notice, targeting LGBTQ+ health, health disparities, and DEI research. Courts ordered partial restoration, but the Supreme Court allowed the terminations to proceed while litigation continued.

  • 383 NIH-funded clinical trials (355 US-based) lost funding Feb-Aug 2025; participants could have lost access to medication or been left with an unmonitored device implant
  • Supreme Court on Aug 21, 2025 (5-4 on this point) stayed the lower-court judgments that had vacated the grant terminations, allowing them to proceed while litigation continued
  • PNAS study found early-career investigators and women were disproportionately affected by the terminations
Lyndon Baines Johnson Department of Education Building, Washington, D.C., home of the Office for Civil Rights
/Civil Rights

Education civil rights office guts enforcement

Seven of 12 regional offices closed; about 90% of resolved complaints were dismissals.

3,424 complaints dismissed March 11-June 27, 2025Only 112 resolution agreements in 2025, a 12-year lowZero racial/sexual harassment resolutions in 2025

Layoffs cut 299 of 575 OCR staff and closed seven regional offices. Thousands of discrimination complaints covering race, sex, and disability were dismissed, and resolution agreements fell to a 12-year low.

  • 3,424 civil rights complaints dismissed between March 11 and June 27, 2025 (4,833 received in that period), per a court filing reported by Axios
  • OCR reached 112 resolution agreements in 2025, the fewest in at least 12 years, against 11,985 cases pending in January 2025
  • Senate (Sanders) report documented zero resolution agreements in 2025 for sexual harassment, sexual violence, seclusion or restraint, racial harassment and discriminatory discipline cases

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$29Mnow20352040
high confidence$29M by 2035·$29M by 2040
Front entrance of NIAID's Rocky Mountain Laboratories biomedical research facility in Hamilton, Montana
/Health & Science

Signs of a US scientific brain drain

75% of US scientists answering a Nature poll said they were considering leaving; the EU allocated €500M to recruit them.

Nature survey: 75.3% of US scientists considering leavingERC early-career applications from US-based scientists nearly tripled 2024-2026EU allocated €500M to attract US researchers

Following NIH grant terminations and HHS layoffs, early-career European Research Council applications from US-based scientists nearly tripled between 2024 and 2026. France, Canada, Germany, and other nations launched dedicated programs to recruit American researchers.

  • ERC applications from US-based early-career scientists: 60 (2024) → 116 (2025) → 169 (2026), nearly tripling
  • Nature survey (March 2025): 75.3% of US scientists considering leaving; 80% of early-career researchers considering departure
  • EU allocated €500M to attract US researchers; France, Canada, Germany, and others launched dedicated programs
Pro-Palestinian protest encampment at Columbia University, April 2024
/Immigration

6,000+ student visas revoked; SEVIS records restored

Abrupt visa revocations - many for alleged infractions, a subset tied to campus protests - disrupted studies; SEVIS terminations were reversed, visa revocations were not.

6,000+ student visas revoked1,800+ students at 280+ universities affectedSEVIS statuses restored April 25, 2025 after courts intervened

The State Department revoked more than 6,000 student visas in 2025, attributing about 4,000 to law violations such as overstays, DUI and assault. Separately, about 1,800 students at 280+ universities had SEVIS records terminated, often without notice, in actions that targeted protest participants and students with minor or dismissed charges; after courts issued restraining orders, the administration restored those records on April 25, 2025. The visa revocations were not reversed.

  • 6,000+ student visas revoked in 2025 (as of August 2025); separately, an estimated 1,800+ students at 280+ universities had SEVIS records terminated without prior notice between March and April 2025.
  • Administration reversed course on April 25, 2025, restoring SEVIS statuses after federal courts issued emergency restraining orders.
Aerial view of Kyiv, Ukraine showing the city's urban landscape and the Dnipro River
/Foreign Policy

US suspends military aid to Ukraine

A nearly week-long intelligence blackout coincided with a Russian strike on Odesa's port.

Military aid paused March 3; US intelligence sharing cut off for about a weekRussia attacked Odesa's port during the blackout March 8NGA suspended commercial satellite imagery access (confirmed March 7)

Following the Oval Office confrontation, Trump paused military assistance and intelligence sharing. Russia struck Odesa's port and civilian targets during the gap. Intelligence sharing resumed March 11 during US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.

  • Russia launched a massive missile and drone barrage on Odesa on 2025-03-08, striking the port and civilian targets during the intelligence blackout - with Ukrainian targeting impaired for HIMARS precision strikes
  • A White House official said the US was "pausing and reviewing" its aid to "ensure that it is contributing to a solution"
  • The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency confirmed on 2025-03-07 that it had temporarily suspended Ukraine's access to its portal for US-government-purchased commercial satellite imagery
E. Barrett Prettyman United States Courthouse, Washington D.C., May 2024
/Rule of Law

Executive orders target major law firms

Courts struck down every order firms challenged; nine firms instead pledged $940M in free legal work.

Paul Weiss pledged $40M in pro-bono services to settleNine firms, including Paul Weiss, pledged $940M in pro bono work in deals with the White HouseFour senior Paul Weiss litigators departed after its settlement

Trump targeted Perkins Coie, Jenner & Block, WilmerHale, and Paul Weiss with orders suspending clearances and restricting contracts. Courts struck down the orders that firms challenged; Paul Weiss's order was revoked after it cut a deal.

  • Judge Howell's 102-page permanent injunction (May 2, 2025) found the Perkins Coie EO violated the First Amendment right of association and was unlawful retaliation against protected speech
  • Paul Weiss pledged $40 million in pro-bono services (March 20) as blueprint for nine firms collectively pledging $940 million; four senior litigators left the firm
  • Temporarily blocking the WilmerHale EO on March 28, 2025, Judge Richard Leon wrote: "There is no doubt this retaliatory action chills speech and legal advocacy, or that it qualifies as a constitutional harm."
Alma Mater sculpture on the steps of Low Library, Columbia University, New York City
/Civil Rights

Columbia pays $221M after $400M cut

To restore $400M in federal funding, Columbia agreed to pay $221M, overhaul protest rules and adopt the IHRA antisemitism definition.

$400M in grants cancelled March 7, 2025Settlement July 23, 2025: Columbia paid $221MColumbia adopted IHRA antisemitism definition under settlement

The administration cancelled about $400 million in Columbia's federal funding, then restored it through a settlement in which Columbia paid $221 million, overhauled its protest rules and adopted the IHRA definition of antisemitism, setting a template for using federal funding as leverage over universities.

  • $400 million in federal grants and contracts cancelled March 7, 2025
  • Settlement formalized July 23, 2025: Columbia paid $221 million and accepted policy mandates including IHRA antisemitism definition and protest-rule overhaul
  • The American Association of University Professors called the settlement "an unprecedented disaster" for academic freedom
Soybean field in the United States during growing season
/Economy & Trade

China tariffs cost US farmers $14.9B

China's countermeasures cut US farm exports by $14.9B, about 41% more than the 2018-19 trade war's annualized losses.

$14.9B in US agricultural export losses, March 2025-Feb 2026China shifted soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina before the Nov 2025 truceSoybean losses alone: $6.8B

China imposed retaliatory tariffs on a broad range of US farm goods, from soybeans and pork to wheat and dairy, and shifted its soybean buying to South America. The resulting $14.9 billion loss exceeded the prior trade war's annualized damages by approximately 41%.

  • China's retaliatory tariffs cost US agricultural exporters $14.9 billion over March 2025-February 2026, exceeding the 2018-19 trade war losses (~$10.6 billion annualized) by approximately 41%.
  • Soybeans accounted for about $6.8 billion of the $14.9 billion loss, roughly half; beef and cotton each accounted for about $1.3 billion.
  • PBS NewsHour (AP) reported that farm bankruptcies, while still relatively low, continued to climb in 2025 (American Farm Bureau Federation), as soybean farmers faced high costs, low prices and a trade war that pushed China toward competing exporters such as Brazil.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$27Bnow20352040
medium confidence$26.90B by 2035·$26.90B by 2040
Main entrance of the EPA headquarters, William Jefferson Clinton Federal Building, Washington D.C.
/Environment & Energy

EPA launches 31-rule deregulatory sweep

What EPA called the largest deregulatory action in US history placed air, water, and climate standards under review at once.

31 actions announced March 12, 2025Included reconsideration of the 2009 GHG Endangerment FindingEndangerment Finding repeal finalized Feb 2026

EPA Administrator Zeldin announced reconsideration of 31 environmental rules and programs at once, from power-plant, vehicle and soot standards to the 2009 greenhouse-gas Endangerment Finding.

  • EPA announced all 31 actions on a single day, March 12, 2025, calling it "the greatest and most consequential day of deregulation in U.S. history." The announcement was a statement of intent to reconsider the rules; legal challenges attached to the individual rules as they were later finalized, not to the March 12 announcement itself.
  • The announcement included reconsideration of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, the legal basis for federal GHG regulation; EPA finalized its repeal on February 12, 2026.
Aerial view of the Houston Ship Channel and surrounding petrochemical energy facilities, Texas, 2014
/Environment & Energy

EPA shuts EJ offices, ends $2.8B grant program

EPA closed its environmental-justice offices and ended the $2.8B EJ block-grant program; a judge later ruled the termination unlawful.

168 staffers placed on administrative leave in February 2025$2.8B EJ block-grant program terminated; judge later ruled it unlawful29 additional positions abolished by Aug 2025

EPA abolished its Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights and terminated the $2.8 billion Environmental and Climate Justice Block Grant Program, cancelling grants to community groups. In June 2026 a federal judge ruled the termination unlawful but did not order the program restarted.

  • EPA placed its 168 environmental-justice staffers on administrative leave in early 2025 and abolished the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights; 29 additional EJ positions at Washington headquarters were abolished through a reduction in force on August 25, 2025.
  • EPA terminated the $2.8 billion Environmental and Climate Justice Block Grant Program; in June 2026 a federal judge ruled the termination unlawful and voided it but declined to order the agency to resume administering the program.
United States Supreme Court Building at dusk, Washington D.C.
/Rule of Law

Judge threats surge; one judge convicted

400 federal judges faced serious threats in 2025, up 78% in four years, amid presidential calls for impeachment.

400 judges seriously threatened in 2025 (up 78% in four years)Chief Justice Roberts rebuked calls to impeach judgesJudge Dugan convicted Dec 2025 for obstruction

Judges who ruled against administration policies faced a sharp escalation in bomb threats, swatting, and doxxing amplified by presidential impeachment calls. Chief Justice Roberts issued a rare rebuke after Trump called for a sitting judge's removal.

  • Chief Justice John Roberts said in a rare statement on March 18, 2025 that "impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision," after Trump called for Judge James Boasberg's impeachment
  • CBS's 60 Minutes reported hundreds of threats left on judges' voicemails; most of the sitting judges it interviewed would not appear on camera, fearing for their safety
  • Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan was charged in April 2025 with obstruction and concealment after leading an undocumented defendant out of her courtroom through a private jury door; on December 18, 2025, a jury convicted her of felony obstruction and acquitted her of the concealment count
Library of Congress Thomas Jefferson Building west facade in Washington D.C.
/Media & Institutions

Library funding agency targeted for elimination

An EO to eliminate IMLS was reversed by settlement in April 2026.

~63 of 75 IMLS employees placed on leave~1,200 IMLS grants cancelled from early April 2025Settlement April 9, 2026 keeps IMLS intact

EO 14238 directed IMLS's elimination; staff were sidelined and federal library grants terminated. The American Library Association said the cuts affected services such as talking books for blind readers and literacy programs, before courts and a settlement reversed all actions.

  • ~63 of 75 IMLS employees placed on administrative leave; beginning in early April 2025 about 1,200 competitive IMLS grants were cancelled
  • After a November 2025 court ruling in the states' case, IMLS reinstated all terminated grants (announced Dec 3, 2025); an April 9, 2026 settlement ended ALA's suit and keeps IMLS intact
  • ALA characterized affected services as talking books, interlibrary loans, bookmobiles, and literacy programs in all 50 states
Secretary of State delivers remarks at the Voice of America headquarters in Washington, D.C., January 2021.
/Foreign Policy

Order guts Voice of America broadcasts

Voice of America went mostly silent; a court-ordered restoration is on hold pending appeal.

VOA staff put on leave; 1,042 still sidelined a year laterRFE/RL appropriated grant terminatedJudge ordered VOA staff reinstated Mar 2026; stayed on appeal

A March 2025 executive order reduced USAGM, parent of VOA, RFE/RL, and Radio Free Asia, to the statutory minimum, and VOA went mostly silent. A judge ordered VOA staff reinstated in March 2026, but an appeals court stayed that order pending appeal.

  • VOA staff placed on paid administrative leave March 15, 2025, and VOA went mostly silent; 1,042 employees were still on leave a year later
  • RFE/RL's congressionally appropriated grant terminated
  • A judge ordered VOA staff reinstated on March 17, 2026; on March 31, 2026 the D.C. Circuit stayed that order pending appeal
F/A-18F Super Hornet launching from the flight deck of USS George Washington aircraft carrier
/Foreign Policy

Yemen strike plans shared in Signal chat with a journalist

Hegseth shared F-18 launch timelines in a chat that included a news editor.

Pentagon IG found Hegseth violated regulations and put US personnel at riskSecond Signal chat including Hegseth's wife also shared battle plansNo prosecutions as of June 2026

Hegseth posted precise attack sequencing, weapon types, and timing for imminent Yemen airstrikes to a Signal chat that accidentally included Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg. The Pentagon's inspector general found he violated policy by using a personal phone and that the messages, if intercepted, would have endangered US service members and the mission.

  • Pentagon Inspector General report (released December 2025) found Hegseth violated regulations and put US personnel at risk
  • Second Signal chat on Hegseth's personal phone - including his wife, brother, and personal lawyer - also shared Yemen strike details, the New York Times reported
  • The Pentagon called the inspector general's review "a total exoneration" of Hegseth and the White House said "operational security was not compromised"; no prosecutions filed as of 2026-06-19
Aerial view of CECOT, El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center mega-prison, January 2023
/Immigration

Venezuelans deported to CECOT without hearings

Flights went ahead despite a court order to halt them; the 252 held at CECOT were sent to Venezuela in a July 2025 prisoner swap.

137 sent to CECOT under the Act, March 15, 2025Judge ruled the 137 were denied due process, Dec 2025All 252 returned to Venezuela July 18, 2025

The administration invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to send 137 Venezuelans to El Salvador's CECOT prison without individual hearings, despite a judge's oral order to halt the flights. Courts ruled the removals violated due process; all 252 Venezuelans held at CECOT were returned to Venezuela via a prisoner swap.

  • 137 Venezuelan men removed under the Act were sent to CECOT on March 15, 2025, without individual hearings; Judge Boasberg later found probable cause to hold the administration in criminal contempt over the flights.
  • Judge Boasberg ruled December 22, 2025, that the 137 men removed under the Act had been denied due process; directed the administration to submit a plan to return them to the US or give them hearings.
  • All 252 Venezuelans held at CECOT were returned to Venezuela on July 18, 2025, in a prisoner swap.
Exterior of the ICE building at 500 12th Street SW, Washington DC, April 2025
/Immigration

Abrego Garcia wrongfully deported to CECOT

A man with legal protection was deported; the Supreme Court unanimously ordered return.

Deported March 15, 2025 despite valid withholding-of-removal orderSupreme Court ordered return unanimously April 10, 2025Returned June 6, 2025; charges later dismissed as vindictive prosecution

ICE deported Abrego Garcia to CECOT despite a standing court order barring his removal. After the government admitted 'administrative error,' the Supreme Court ordered his return. He arrived back in the US on June 6, 2025.

  • An ICE official acknowledged in a sworn declaration in district court (early April 2025) that the deportation was an "administrative error"; the government repeated this to the Supreme Court in No. 24A949.
  • Supreme Court issued unanimous order on April 10, 2025, directing the US government to facilitate his return; administration delayed compliance for nearly two months.
  • Federal criminal charges against him dismissed May 22, 2026, on vindictive-prosecution grounds.
Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building, Washington D.C., July 2023
/Rule of Law

Deportation flights continued despite a judge's halt order

Continuing flights after a court halt prompted a Chief Justice rebuke and a contempt fight that is still live.

Flights continued after Judge Boasberg's verbal halt orderChief Justice Roberts issued public rebuke March 18, 2025Probable-cause contempt finding (April 2025) vacated; inquiry re-blocked April 2026; full D.C. Circuit rehearing, argument Sept 29, 2026

The administration flew deportation planes to El Salvador after a federal judge verbally ordered them turned around, claiming the verbal order was ineffective. Chief Justice Roberts stated judicial impeachment is 'not an appropriate response' to an unfavorable ruling.

  • Chief Justice Roberts issued a public rebuke March 18, 2025, after Trump called for Judge Boasberg's impeachment - a statement CBS News described as rare
  • Boasberg found probable cause for criminal contempt on April 17, 2025; a D.C. Circuit panel vacated the finding 2-1 via mandamus on August 8, 2025
  • After the full D.C. Circuit let the panel ruling stand (Nov 14, 2025), Boasberg resumed the criminal-contempt inquiry Nov 19, 2025, but a 2-1 panel again blocked further contempt steps on April 14, 2026; in February 2026 Boasberg also ordered the government to facilitate the return of certain of the deported Venezuelans (DOJ appealed)
Lyndon Baines Johnson Department of Education Building, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

Education Department ordered to dismantle itself

An executive order put administration of $1.6T in student loans and services for 7.5 million disabled students at risk.

1,300+ of ~4,000 employees fired before the EO was signedTrump named SBA to take student loans (later Treasury)IDEA services for 7.5M disabled students put at risk

Trump directed Education Secretary McMahon to take 'all necessary steps' to dismantle the department. He said the next day that the SBA would handle student loans and HHS special education; the order itself made no transfers, and in March 2026 the administration instead began moving student loans to Treasury.

  • More than 1,300 Education Department employees (of ~4,000) fired before the EO was signed, cutting the civil rights enforcement and student aid workforce.
  • Trump said on March 21, 2025 that the SBA would handle federal student loans; in March 2026 the administration instead announced a phased move of student loan management and collections to the Treasury Department.
  • On July 14, 2025, the Supreme Court (shadow docket, McMahon v. New York; Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson dissenting) lifted the lower-court injunction, allowing the RIF of roughly 1,400 employees to proceed.
The White House, Washington D.C., viewed from the front lawn
/Rule of Law

Dozens of officials' and critics' clearances revoked

What experts called an unprecedented, partisan sweep targeted former officials, impeachment witnesses, and prosecutors.

Clearances pulled in waves: 50 (Jan), 15 (Mar), 37 (Aug 2025)Targets included Biden, Harris, Clinton, Blinken, Liz CheneyFederal judge blocked one revocation as likely unlawful retaliation

Trump revoked security clearances from dozens of current and former officials in separate waves; experts called it unprecedented and partisan. Former intelligence officials warned the action chills future analysts from reaching conclusions that displease the president.

  • More than 50 clearances were revoked in January 2025 alone (49 former intelligence officials plus John Bolton) - described by experts as "unprecedented and partisan" - before the 15-person March memorandum
  • PBS reported a federal judge blocked one clearance revocation targeting an attorney who represented whistleblowers, finding it likely unlawful retaliation
  • Former intelligence officials stated the actions would deter future intelligence professionals from providing analysis that displeases the president
U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers, including a Field Operations federal officer, standing at the San Ysidro port of entry.
/Immigration

Parole ended for 532,000

DHS ended humanitarian parole for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans; about 532,000 had been paroled under the programs.

~532,000 peopleEffective ~April 24, 2025SCOTUS let it proceed

A March 25, 2025 Federal Register notice ended the CHNV parole processes, ending parole and related work permits for CHNV parolees whose parole had not yet expired; about 532,000 people had been paroled under the programs. The Supreme Court allowed it to proceed on May 30, and the First Circuit upheld it in September. Many face removal or loss of work.

  • Parole ended April 24, 2025 for CHNV parolees whose parole had not already expired; about 532,000 people had been paroled under the programs
  • Supreme Court allowed termination to proceed May 30, 2025
  • First Circuit upheld the termination September 12, 2025
Voting location sign, California, October 2008
/Rule of Law

Proof-of-citizenship voting requirement blocked

An executive order imposing documentary citizenship requirements on federal voter registration was permanently enjoined.

19 states suedSection 2(a) permanently blocked Oct 2025Additional provisions permanently blocked Jan 2026

Trump signed an order requiring proof of citizenship on federal voter registration forms. Nineteen states sued, and a federal court permanently blocked the primary provision in October 2025 and two more in January 2026.

  • 19 states filed suit alleging the order was an unconstitutional federal seizure of state election authority
  • Federal court permanently blocked Section 2(a) (citizenship-proof for voter registration) in October 2025
  • Additional permanent injunctions against further provisions issued January 2026
Tesla Motors automobile assembly line at the Fremont, California factory
/Economy & Trade

25% tariff on all imported autos

Analysts projected new-vehicle price increases of $2,000 to $12,000; GM estimated at least $4B in 2025 tariff costs.

GM: at least $4B in 2025 tariff costsCenter for Automotive Research: $107.7B in added costs for US automakersStellantis temporarily laid off 900 US workers

A Section 232 proclamation imposed 25% tariffs on imported passenger vehicles from April 3, 2025 and on key parts from May 3. US consumers faced higher new-vehicle prices; automakers with cross-border supply chains absorbed billions in added costs.

  • General Motors estimated the tariffs would cost it at least $4 billion in 2025; Toyota said tariffs would cost it $1.3 billion in April and May 2025 alone.
  • The Center for Automotive Research estimated the auto and parts tariffs would raise costs for automakers in the U.S. by $107.7 billion, including $41.9 billion for GM, Ford and Stellantis; Boston Consulting Group estimated $110 billion to $160 billion a year in added industry costs.
  • Stellantis paused production at some of its assembly plants in Mexico and Canada and said 900 workers would be temporarily laid off at several of its factories in Michigan and Indiana.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$264Bnow20352040
medium confidence$264.00B by 2035·$264.00B by 2040
Smithsonian Institution Building known as the Castle on the National Mall in Washington D.C.
/Media & Institutions

Smithsonian ordered to remove 'race-centered ideology'

An executive order directed the Vice President to work to remove 'improper ideology' from Smithsonian museums, and the White House ordered a content review of eight museums.

NMAAHC explicitly targeted in the orderFull review of 8 museums ordered Aug 2025Smithsonian closed its diversity office (Jan 2025)

EO 14253 directed the VP to work with the Smithsonian to eliminate 'improper ideology' from its museums and criticized the National Museum of African American History and Culture. In August 2025 the White House ordered a content review of eight museums ahead of the 2026 US 250th anniversary.

  • The Smithsonian had already closed its central Office of Diversity in January 2025, after an earlier Trump executive order on DEI
  • August 2025: White House ordered comprehensive review of 8 Smithsonian museums for alignment with the administration's historical interpretation
  • EO directed the Vice President and OMB Director to work with Congress to bar future Smithsonian spending on exhibits that "divide Americans based on race"
Federal officials at a HUD ceremony signing a labor settlement with the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) union.
/Federal Government

Union rights stripped at most agencies

A 'national security' order ended collective bargaining for about two-thirds of federal workers.

~40 agencies affected~two-thirds of workforceTSA contract termination blocked in court, Jan 2026

The March 2025 executive order invoked a national-security exclusion to end collective bargaining across roughly 40 agencies, later expanded in August. A judge enjoined key parts, but the Ninth Circuit vacated that injunction in February 2026, letting the order proceed; the House passed a bipartisan reversal.

  • Collective bargaining ended at ~40 agencies covering ~two-thirds of federal workers
  • August 2025 order expanded the exclusions; separately, TSA announced in December 2025 that it would end its union contract, which a federal judge blocked on January 15, 2026
  • Ninth Circuit vacated the preliminary injunction on Feb. 26, 2026, finding unions unlikely to succeed, and the EO proceeds; on June 17, 2026 the court amended its opinion, barred rehearing petitions and issued its mandate. The House had passed a bipartisan reversal bill.
Hubert H. Humphrey Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington D.C.
/Health & Science

HHS eliminates 10,000 health agency positions

Simultaneous cuts to FDA, CDC, NIH, and CMS disrupted drug reviews and disease surveillance.

10,000 positions eliminated; 28 divisions consolidated to 15FDA's top vaccine regulator resigned April 5, 2025FDA reviewers handling double workloads by late March 2025

HHS Secretary Kennedy announced 10,000 position cuts on March 27, 2025. FDA, CDC, NIH, and CMS all suffered major staffing losses simultaneously. FDA's CBER director resigned citing promotion of 'misinformation and lies' about vaccines.

  • FDA device and tobacco-product reviewers reported roughly double application workloads as of late March 2025, with experts warning of a higher risk of missed red flags
  • Peter Marks (FDA CBER Director) resigned April 5, 2025, citing Kennedy's preference for "subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies"
  • Judge advanced states' lawsuit challenging legality of restructuring without congressional approval
Exterior of FDA Building 1 with circular driveway at the FDA White Oak Campus in Silver Spring, Maryland
/Health & Science

FDA loses leadership and top reviewers

After February layoffs left reviewers with doubled workloads, HHS announced 3,500 more FDA job cuts.

3,500-position cut announced March 27, 2025Peter Marks (CBER Director) resigned April 5, 2025Some FDA reviewers handling roughly double application loads

After an initial wave cut roughly 1,000 probationary employees, FDA reviewers reported roughly double application workloads, and HHS then announced 3,500 more FDA job cuts. The agency's top vaccine regulator, Peter Marks, resigned citing Kennedy's promotion of 'misinformation and lies.'

  • FDA device and tobacco-product reviewers handling roughly double application loads as of March 27, 2025
  • Peter Marks (CBER Director since 2016) resigned April 5, 2025, citing Kennedy's promotion of "misinformation and lies"
  • FDA announced 3,500-position cut March 27, 2025, on top of earlier DOGE layoffs
Sherco Generating Station, Xcel Energy coal-fired power plant, at sunset near Becker, Minnesota
/Environment & Energy

60+ power plants exempted from mercury rule

Two-year exemptions were followed by a 2026 repeal of the stricter Biden-era mercury and air-toxics limits.

60+ plants from 47 owners got 2-year MATS exemptions April 20252024 MATS amendments repealed Feb 2026Exempted plants hold about one third of US coal capacity

A presidential proclamation exempted more than 60 power plants from updated mercury and particulate standards for two years, and EPA then finalized a full repeal of the Biden-era MATS amendments in 2026. Plants remain subject to the original 2012 standards.

  • A presidential proclamation signed April 8, 2025 gave listed coal plants two more years to comply with the 2024 MATS amendments, which were set to take effect in 2027; EPA's list covered 47 plant owners and more than 60 plants.
  • EPA finalized repeal of the 2024 MATS amendments in February 2026, permanently removing the filterable PM standard for coal plants and the updated mercury standard for lignite-fired units.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$360Mnow20352040
medium confidence$360M by 2035·$360M by 2040
A coal tipple worker in Wyoming County, West Virginia, photographed for the federal government.
/Health & Science

HHS cuts gut mine-safety research

Roughly two-thirds of NIOSH was laid off, halting black-lung surveillance for coal miners.

Nearly 900 NIOSH staff laid off, about two-thirds of the agencyCoal Workers' Health Surveillance Program haltedA court injunction later forced reinstatement of some workers

Starting April 1, 2025, the HHS restructuring laid off roughly two-thirds of NIOSH, halting the Coal Workers' Health Surveillance Program and mobile black-lung screening. Litigation later forced some black-lung workers to be reinstated.

  • Nearly 900 NIOSH workers (about two-thirds) fired in April 2025, including about 200 union workers at the Pittsburgh-area mine-safety research center
  • May 13, 2025 court injunction to reinstate surveillance-program staff; HHS then reversed the firings of 328 NIOSH employees
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services headquarters building in Washington, D.C.
/Health & Science

CDC lead program cut during crisis

HHS eliminated the CDC's childhood lead program and declined Milwaukee's request for help, then reinstated the team two months later.

CDC childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention program eliminated April 2025CDC declined Milwaukee's request for lead experts in April 2025Team reinstated June 11, 2025 as HHS rehired 450+ CDC staff

The HHS restructuring eliminated the CDC's childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention and Surveillance program, and when Milwaukee sought federal help with a lead-paint crisis that closed schools, the CDC declined, citing the loss of its lead experts. The team was reinstated on June 11, 2025 as part of a broader rehiring of more than 450 CDC employees.

  • On April 1, 2025, the day the lead team was cut, the CDC told Milwaukee it could not provide the requested lead experts and transferred the request to ATSDR
  • A laid-off CDC lead expert later volunteered to help Milwaukee schools
  • CDC Childhood Lead Poisoning Prevention team reinstated June 11, 2025, as HHS rehired 450+ CDC employees
New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street in Lower Manhattan
/Economy & Trade

Liberation Day tariffs trigger $6T+ selloff

Tariffs on nearly every trading partner set off a market selloff that brought the S&P 500 near bear-market territory.

US equity markets lost more than $6T in value April 3-4S&P 500 fell 19% from Feb 19 high by April 8Yale Budget Lab: $2,400 per-household loss from all 2025 tariffs

Trump's April 2 executive order imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all countries plus higher country-specific rates. US stocks lost more than $6 trillion in value over the next two days, leaving the S&P 500 near bear-market territory. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA legal basis in February 2026.

  • U.S. equity markets lost more than $6 trillion in market value over April 3-4, 2025 - the S&P 500 fell 4.8% on April 3 and ~6% on April 4. Retirement accounts with equity exposure suffered proportional losses.
  • By April 8, 2025, the S&P 500 had fallen 19% from its February 19 record high, approaching bear-market territory.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.84% (April 4) to 4.32% (April 11), raising federal borrowing costs. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cited the bond market as a factor in the 90-day pause.
Aerial view of the Port of Long Beach, California, one of the busiest US container ports
/Economy & Trade

US-China tariffs escalate to 145%

A near-total tariff barrier coincided with US imports from China falling to about half of 2024 levels; the de minimis exemption for China also ended.

US imports from China fell to ~half 2024 levels by June 2025De minimis exemption ended May 2, 2025; postal duties of 120% or $100-$200 per itemGeneva deal May 12 temporarily reduced to 30% for 90 days

When China retaliated to Liberation Day tariffs, Trump excluded China from the 90-day pause and escalated the combined rate to 145%. Normal US-China trade was effectively suspended; retailers dependent on Chinese supply chains faced inventory shortfalls.

  • U.S. imports from China fell to $18.9 billion in June 2025, about 55% of the June 2024 level ($34.2 billion).
  • End of the de minimis exemption for China (effective May 2, 2025) subjected low-value postal packages to duties of 120% of value or $100 per item (rising to $200 on June 1), up from the 30% or $25-$50 set on April 2, affecting US shoppers on platforms such as Temu and Shein.
  • The 145% combined rate constituted a near-total trade barrier in several categories of consumer goods, contributing to the collapse in US imports from China.
United States Supreme Court Building, front facade, Washington D.C.
/Rule of Law

Judge finds noncompliance after 9-0 Supreme Court order

After a 9-0 ruling, a judge found the government had failed to comply and accused it of bad faith; he was returned two months later.

Supreme Court ruled 9-0 April 10, 2025Judge Xinis accused the government of bad faith in discoveryAbrego Garcia returned June 6, 2025

The Supreme Court unanimously required the government to facilitate the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, deported to El Salvador despite an order barring his removal there. He was returned nearly two months later to face criminal charges; a federal judge had accused the government of bad faith.

  • Judge Xinis found on April 11, 2025 that the government had failed to comply with her order, and on April 22 accused it of acting in bad faith by refusing to provide discovery; Abrego Garcia's lawyers later alleged a "pattern of deliberate delay and bad faith"
  • As of June 2026, Abrego Garcia is free in the U.S. -- released from ICE custody under court order and shielded from re-detention by a February 17, 2026 ruling -- while still subject to removal proceedings; his Tennessee human-smuggling indictment was dismissed for "presumptive vindictiveness" by Judge Waverly Crenshaw on May 22, 2026
  • Fourth Circuit denied the government's stay request April 7, 2025: "The United States Government has no legal authority to snatch a person who is lawfully present in the United States off the street and remove him from the country without due process"
CBP construction workers erecting steel border wall panels near Weslaco, Texas, October 2019
/Immigration

Military takes control of 800+ miles of border

National Defense Areas placed border territory under Pentagon control, enabling civilian arrests.

800+ miles of border land in military zones by March 20268,500-10,000 troops deployed4,700+ migrants charged with military trespass

Trump transferred federal border lands to Defense Department jurisdiction, allowing active-duty troops to detain border crossers, who can then be charged with trespassing on military property. The Brennan Center said the arrangement appears designed to evade the Posse Comitatus Act.

  • By March 2026 the Pentagon had established six National Defense Areas in all four border states covering more than 800 miles, about 42% of the US-Mexico border (The War Horse); more than 10,000 troops were deployed by summer 2025 and about 8,500 in February 2026.
  • Approximately 4,700 migrants charged with military trespass by April 2026; the majority of resolved cases were dismissed or dropped after magistrate judges found no proof the migrants knew they were entering a military zone.
  • Brennan Center analysis found the policy likely violates the Posse Comitatus Act by deploying troops in a de facto domestic law enforcement role.
Aerial view of Harvard Yard and campus, Cambridge, Massachusetts
/Civil Rights

Harvard $2.2B+ federal funding frozen

Research funding was frozen hours after Harvard rejected government demands; a judge ruled the freeze unconstitutional retaliation.

$2.2B frozen April 2025; $450M more cut May 2025Federal court ruled freeze unconstitutional retaliation Sept 2025Government appealed Dec 2025

After Harvard refused government policy demands, the administration froze billions in federal research grants. A federal judge ruled the freeze was unconstitutional retaliation for protected speech; the government appealed and research disruptions continued.

  • $2.2 billion in grants frozen April 2025; additional $450 million cut May 2025
  • Federal court blocked the freeze September 2025, ruling it unconstitutional retaliation for protected speech
  • Government appealed December 2025; research disruptions continued during litigation period
A Florida panther photographed at Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge.
/Environment & Energy

Habitat loss excluded from ESA harm

A final rule effective Sept. 14, 2026 removed the definition that let habitat destruction count as harm.

'Harm' definition rescindedExcludes habitat lossDecades-old definition rescinded

USFWS and NOAA Fisheries rescinded the ESA regulatory definition of 'harm', which for decades had been interpreted to cover habitat modification that impairs species' ability to feed, breed or find shelter. Proposed in April 2025, the final rule took effect September 14, 2026.

  • Proposal would redefine 'harm' to exclude habitat destruction
  • November 2025 proposal sought to eliminate the 'blanket rule' protecting threatened species
  • For decades, federal agencies had interpreted 'harm' to include habitat modification that impairs species' ability to feed, breed or find shelter
A U.S. government speaker addresses roughly 100 law students seated in a law-school auditorium at Cornell Law School.
/Civil Rights

ABA drops law-school diversity standard

After federal pressure, the legal accreditor repealed its law-school diversity requirement.

April 2025 EO targeted ABA accreditor statusStandard 206 suspended then eliminatedFTC chair urged states to drop the ABA

The ABA suspended its diversity-and-inclusion standard for law schools in February 2025; after a Bondi letter and an executive order targeting its accreditor role, it voted to eliminate the standard. The FTC chair urged states to stop relying on it.

  • The ABA Council suspended Standard 206, its diversity-and-inclusion accreditation standard, in February 2025 and repealed it on Sept. 8, 2026 (10-6, one abstention), effective immediately.
  • The FTC chair urged states to stop relying on the ABA to vet law schools.
AmeriCorps NCCC corps members performing outdoor service work with the Bureau of Land Management.
/Federal Government

AmeriCorps cut, then partly restored

A move to cut ~90% of staff and ~$400M in grants disrupted national-service programs nationwide.

~90% of workforce targeted~$400M grants canceled$184M restored after suit

In April 2025 the administration moved to eliminate about 90% of AmeriCorps' workforce and roughly $400 million in grants, abruptly ending contracts nationwide. After a 24-state-and-DC lawsuit, the administration agreed to release $184 million, but many programs were already disrupted.

  • ~90% of AmeriCorps workforce and ~$400M in grants targeted for elimination
  • Terminated programs included a child-abuse prevention program in Independence, Missouri and several in California
  • June 5, 2025 D. Md. preliminary injunction restored programs terminated in the plaintiff states and 750+ NCCC members
"The Blue Marble" photograph of Earth taken by the Apollo 17 crew in 1972.
/Environment & Energy

Climate Assessment authors dismissed

All roughly 400 scientists writing the mandated US climate report were let go.

~400 scientists dismissedReport due ~2027Congressionally mandated

The administration dismissed all volunteer authors of the Sixth National Climate Assessment, the peer-reviewed federal report on US climate risks. Officials said its scope was being reevaluated, leaving the mandated assessment's future in doubt.

  • Roughly 400 volunteer scientists dismissed from the congressionally mandated assessment
  • Report, due in 2027, left with an uncertain future as its scope was 'reevaluated'
Herbert C. Hoover Building, headquarters of the US Department of Commerce in Washington DC, home to the Bureau of Economic Analysis
/Economy & Trade

US GDP contracts 0.6% in Q1

The first contraction since 2022 reflected a pre-tariff import surge and slowing spending.

Q1 GDP: -0.6% annualized (BEA Sept 2025 revised estimate, from -0.5%)Consumer spending growth fell from 3.9% to 0.6%Job-market expectations worst since 2009 (Conference Board, April 2025)

Real US GDP contracted in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in imports ahead of expected tariffs and slowing consumer spending. Consumer confidence fell for five straight months, and job-market expectations were the worst since 2009.

  • Q1 2025 GDP third estimate: -0.5% annualized (released June 26, 2025); BEA's September 25, 2025 annual update revised it to -0.6%. The first contraction since Q1 2022.
  • Real consumer spending grew at a 0.6% annual rate in Q1 2025, down from 3.9% in Q4 2024 (BEA data as currently revised).
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index had fallen for five straight months by April 2025, and its survey found expectations about the job market were the worst since 2009.
Automobile assembly line at the Hyundai Motor Company car factory in Ulsan, South Korea
/Economy & Trade

Manufacturing sheds jobs in Trump's first year

Payrolls fell after Liberation Day, with durable-goods makers hit hardest.

JEC Democrats: 108,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Trump's first year (earlier BLS-based count: 68,000)Center for American Progress: 42,000 jobs lost April-Aug 2025Share of supply chain managers reporting layoffs doubled to 32%

Despite tariffs meant to revive manufacturing employment, BLS data show payrolls fell from 12.673 million in January 2025 to 12.582 million in January 2026. Most 2025 losses were among durable-goods makers such as cars, appliances and electronics.

  • Manufacturing payrolls fell by 42,000 from April through August 2025, according to a Center for American Progress analysis of government labor data reported by CBS News.
  • Joint Economic Committee Democrats (minority) reported in February 2026 that the manufacturing industry lost 108,000 jobs during Trump's first year in office, more than the 68,000 BLS had previously estimated.
  • Supply chain manager survey (ASCM/CNBC, January 2026): 32% of respondents reported layoffs, double the 16% reported in April 2025.
Aerial view of a flooded residential neighborhood after a hurricane.
/Environment & Energy

FEMA cancels disaster-prevention grants

The $3.6B BRIC program was scrapped, then a court ruled the cancellation unlawful and ordered it reinstated.

$3.6B program cancelled April 202522 states + DC sued; cancellation ruled unlawful Dec 2025Court ordered ~$4.5B restored; FEMA conceded March 2026

FEMA cancelled its $3.6 billion BRIC pre-disaster mitigation program in April 2025. After 22 states and DC sued, a federal judge ruled the termination unlawful (Dec 2025) and a March 2026 enforcement order required FEMA to restore roughly $4.5 billion and reopen applications; FEMA conceded and filed a reinstatement plan.

  • $3.6 billion BRIC mitigation program cancelled; a notice for $600 million in Flood Mitigation Assistance grants had been removed in February
  • Twenty-two states plus the District of Columbia sued FEMA over the cancellation
  • July 2025 Texas floods killed more than 130 people amid the cuts
NPR headquarters building in Washington D.C.
/Media & Institutions

Congress defunds CPB; public-broadcasting funder dissolves

Congress rescinded ~$1.1B in CPB funding and the corporation voted to shut down.

PBS announced a 21% budget cut Aug 2025Rescissions Act of 2025 clawed back ~$1.1B in CPB fundingCPB announced wind-down Aug 1, 2025; board dissolution announced Jan 5, 2026

Trump's executive order directed an end to public-broadcasting funding, and Congress went further by rescinding about $1.1 billion in CPB appropriations. The Corporation for Public Broadcasting announced it would wind down operations on August 1, 2025, and its board voted to dissolve it (announced January 5, 2026), with some stations closing or cutting staff.

  • PBS announced 21% annual budget cut August 2025 in response to defunding pressure
  • America's Public Television Stations' CEO said stations relying on federal funds for 30% or more of their budgets face the greatest risk, estimating about 30 such stations, all rural
  • Congress's Rescissions Act of 2025 rescinded ~$1.1B in CPB funding (signed July 2025), superseding the EO-funding fight; CPB announced Aug 1, 2025 it would wind down operations, and its board voted to dissolve CPB (announced Jan 5, 2026)

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$0now20352040
medium confidence$0 by 2035·$0 by 2040
Albert Armendariz Sr. United States Courthouse in El Paso, Texas
/Immigration

ICE arrests inside courthouses nationwide

ICE arrested people at their immigration hearings, driving absenteeism and lawsuits, until a federal judge vacated the policies nationwide.

Prior limits on courthouse arrests rescinded Jan 2025Federal judge vacated the policies nationwide June 23, 2026Arrests often followed DHS motions to dismiss cases

The administration revoked guidance barring ICE from civil arrests inside courthouses, allowing agents to detain individuals at their own hearings. Immigrants and advocates sued, and in June 2026 a federal judge vacated the courthouse-arrest policies nationwide.

  • ICE began arresting people at immigration court hearings in May 2025, often after government lawyers moved to dismiss their cases so they could be placed in expedited removal; a class-action lawsuit filed in July 2025 challenged the practice.
  • Federal judge ordered halt to courthouse arrests in Northern California in December 2025.
  • U.S. District Judge P. Casey Pitts (N.D. Cal.) vacated ICE's 2025 courthouse-arrest policies nationwide on June 23, 2026, ruling under the Administrative Procedure Act that they did not address earlier concerns about chilling effects, safety risks and hearing attendance; the ruling also vacated ICE's waiver of the 12-hour limit on detention in short-term holding facilities.
A U.S. Navy sailor installs high-efficiency light bulbs as part of an energy-conservation initiative, Hawaii, 2011.
/Environment & Energy

Energy Star targeted for elimination

The threatened elimination was averted; Congress funded the program and management moved to DOE.

$32M a year; $40B+ saved yearly, per Alliance to Save EnergyCongress funded Energy Star $33M for FY2026March 2026 EPA-DOE agreement moves it to DOE, not eliminated

EPA prepared in May 2025 to eliminate Energy Star, the efficiency program running since 1992, but the program was preserved: Congress provided $33 million in FY2026 funding, and a March 3, 2026 EPA-DOE agreement transfers management to the Department of Energy rather than scrapping it.

  • The Alliance to Save Energy said the program, costing about $32 million a year, helps families save over $40 billion annually
  • President's budget zeroed out Energy Star funding
  • Industry groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, urged EPA to keep the program
Open-air coagulation and filtration basins at a municipal drinking-water treatment plant.
/Environment & Energy

PFAS water limits targeted for rollback

EPA moved to scrap limits for four 'forever chemicals' and delay cleanup deadlines.

4 PFAS limits proposed for rescission73M+ served by systems above targeted limits (NRDC)Proposed PFOA/PFOS deadline delay to 2031

EPA announced it would rescind drinking-water limits for four PFAS compounds and proposed letting water systems push PFOA/PFOS compliance from 2029 to 2031. NRDC estimates more than 73 million people are served by systems with PFAS above the limits EPA seeks to rescind or delay.

  • EPA announced it would rescind the maximum contaminant levels for three PFAS compounds plus the Hazard Index mixture standard
  • EPA proposed extending PFOA/PFOS compliance deadlines from 2029 to 2031 for water systems that request it
  • NRDC estimates more than 73 million people are served by water systems that have detected PFAS above the limits EPA seeks to rescind or delay
Boeing VC-25A Air Force One in flight over Mount Rushmore, February 2001
/Rule of Law

Qatar's $400M jet accepted without approval

Accepting a foreign government gift without congressional approval drew Emoluments Clause objections.

Jet valued at ~$400MSenate Democrats' resolution calling it an illegal emolument stalled in committeeAir Force put the retrofit at "probably less than $400 million"

The Trump administration formally accepted a Boeing 747-8 from Qatar's royal family without seeking congressional consent, saying it was a gift to the Defense Department. Legal experts said the Emoluments Clause suggests congressional consent was required.

  • Northeastern University law faculty said the Emoluments Clauses suggest Congress must consent to such a gift from a foreign state, calling the situation unprecedented
  • Senate Democrats introduced S.Res.244, which would declare the transfer an illegal emolument and withhold Senate consent; it was referred to committee and not adopted
  • House Judiciary Democrats opened an investigation demanding legal memoranda from DOJ and White House Counsel on May 15, 2025
The Hubert H. Humphrey Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, D.C.
/Health & Science

MAHA report cites fake studies

RFK Jr.'s flagship child-health report cited studies that do not exist, with AI-hallucination hallmarks.

At least seven fabricated citations identified by NOTUSReport also had broken links and wrong authorsWhite House revised the citations, calling them "formatting issues"

The MAHA Commission's 'Make Our Children Healthy Again' report, meant to set federal child-health policy, cited nonexistent studies. NOTUS found at least seven fabricated citations with generative-AI hallmarks; the White House posted a revised version and called the errors 'formatting issues.'

  • At least seven fabricated citations identified, plus broken links and wrong authors
  • The White House posted a revised version replacing the nonexistent citations, calling the errors "formatting issues"
A large coal-fired power plant beside strip-mine spoil piles.
/Environment & Energy

Retiring coal plants forced open

DOE emergency orders kept retiring fossil plants running, with the costs passed to ratepayers.

$3-6B/yr projected costMultiple statesSection 202(c) orders

Under Trump's grid order, DOE issued repeated emergency directives forcing retiring coal and fossil plants to keep operating across several states. A Grid Strategies analysis commissioned by environmental groups estimated such orders could cost ratepayers $3 billion to nearly $6 billion a year.

  • Section 202(c) emergency orders kept multiple retiring coal and fossil plants running across six-plus states
  • Grid Strategies analysis commissioned by environmental groups projected $3.1 billion to nearly $6 billion per year in added ratepayer costs if such orders covered plants slated to retire through 2028
  • Emergency order kept a Florida coal plant operating
COVID-19 vaccine vials stored in a freezer at the NIAID laboratory
/Health & Science

Routine COVID shot advice dropped for kids, pregnancy

A secretarial directive bypassed the advisory-committee process before a court restored the prior schedule.

Routine recommendation dropped May 2025, bypassing ACIPInsurance coverage obligations linked to ACIP recommendations put at riskFederal court restored prior schedule March 16, 2026

HHS Secretary Kennedy removed COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women without consulting the statutory advisory committee. In March 2026 a federal judge restored the prior schedule by staying later advisory-committee votes; the directive itself was left for the merits phase.

  • May 2025: COVID vaccine recommendation removed from healthy children and pregnant women by Secretarial Directive, bypassing ACIP
  • Insurers' coverage obligations linked to ACIP recommendations, raising risk of out-of-pocket costs for affected groups
  • March 16, 2026: Judge Brian Murphy (D. Mass.) stayed later ACIP votes and the January 2026 schedule memo, restoring the June 2024 schedule; the May 2025 directive itself was not ruled on; government appealed April 29, 2026
The United Nations Headquarters Secretariat building in New York at sunset.
/Foreign Policy

US funding cuts force UN peacekeeping cut

Withheld dues and arrears triggered a 25% global force reduction.

FY2026 request zeroed out US peacekeeping funding~$2.4B in unpaid US peacekeeping dues (Oct 2025)UN to cut global peacekeeping force ~25%

The FY2026 budget moved to zero out most UN funding, including the US peacekeeping share, while arrears climbed to about $2.4 billion. Facing the shortfall, the UN announced a roughly 25% cut to its global peacekeeping force in October 2025.

  • FY2026 budget request proposed eliminating US funding for UN peacekeeping operations (FY2025 appropriation: $1.23B pre-rescission)
  • US unpaid peacekeeping assessments reached ~$2.4B (plus ~$1.5B to the UN regular budget) as of Oct 9, 2025, after P.L. 119-28 rescinded $361.2M in FY2024-FY2025 peacekeeping funds
  • UN announced in October 2025 it would cut its global peacekeeping force by roughly 25%
Food shelves in a grocery store showing consumer goods subject to tariff-driven price increases
/Economy & Trade

Tariffs add measurable inflation in summer

Import-exposed goods such as video equipment and floor coverings posted record price jumps in June 2025.

Video equipment up 4.5% in June; floor coverings up 4.2%Appliance prices up 1.9% in June 2025, most since Aug 2020Coffee prices up 18.9% in the 12 months to Sept 2025 (BLS)

BLS data showed record monthly price increases in June 2025 for import-exposed goods such as video equipment and floor coverings, which CNN linked to businesses passing on higher import costs. Yale Budget Lab estimated all 2025 tariffs would cost the bottom income decile about $1,300 a year, a larger share of income than for the top decile.

  • Video equipment prices surged a record 4.5% in June 2025; windows and floor coverings rose a record 4.2% in June.
  • Appliance prices rose 1.9% in June 2025, the largest monthly jump since August 2020, after the administration extended 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to appliances and other "derivative products".
  • Coffee prices rose 18.9% in the 12 months ending September 2025 (BLS); CNN noted coffee was among categories expected to feel added price pressure from tariffs.
Agricultural workers harvesting tomatoes in California's Sacramento Valley, circa 1939
/Immigration

Farm groups say ICE raids are keeping workers away

Farm groups said raids kept workers from the fields; a preprint modeled billions in crop losses in Oxnard.

DHS told ICE to keep raiding farms, ranches and dairies (June 2025)Up to 70% of strawberry crops unharvested in some Ventura County fields (preprint)Preprint modeled $3-7B a year in Oxnard crop losses and 5-12% higher produce prices

ICE stepped up enforcement in Southern California in June 2025, and DHS told agents to keep raiding farms, ranches and dairies. Farm groups said fear kept workers home, fields in Oxnard were reported unharvested, and a modeling preprint estimated billions in potential crop losses.

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics survey data show agricultural employment fell about 5.7% from March to July 2025 (2.353 million to 2.220 million, seasonally adjusted); a modeling preprint, citing the Los Angeles Times, reported ICE arrests in Southern California rose from 699 in May to nearly 2,000 in June 2025.
  • Estimated $3-7 billion in annual crop losses in Oxnard and a 5-12% produce price increase, modeled from a 20-40% agricultural workforce reduction (arXiv preprint modeling study, not peer-reviewed).
  • A modeling preprint on Oxnard reported up to 70% of strawberry crops unharvested in some Ventura County fields and cited press reports of unharvested fields in Oxnard after the June 2025 raids.
Mobile passenger lounges at Dulles International Airport, a U.S. international port of entry.
/Immigration

Travel ban hits dozens of countries

A June 2025 ban on 19 countries expanded to roughly 39 nations by January 2026.

19 countries, June 2025~39 countries by Jan 2026~4.3M immigrants from the listed countries already live in the US

The June 4, 2025 proclamation suspended entry of nationals from 19 countries, with 12 under full bans. A December 2025 order widened it to about 39 countries plus Palestinian Authority document holders. The American Immigration Council says the bans separate families and disrupt tourism, study and work.

  • Roughly 4.3 million immigrants from affected countries already live in the US
  • Restrictions widened from 19 to ~39 countries plus PA document holders, effective Jan 1, 2026
  • Research cited by the American Immigration Council found tourism from the Middle East to the US fell by about one-quarter after the 2017 travel ban
ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations in Los Angeles, California, June 12, 2025
/Rule of Law

LA military deployment ruled unlawful

A Posse Comitatus Act injunction barred troops from civilian arrests and searches.

4,000 National Guard and ~700 Marines deployed June 2025$134M estimated costJudge Breyer issued a Posse Comitatus injunction Sept 2, 2025

Trump federalized California National Guard troops and deployed Marines to Los Angeles for immigration enforcement over Governor Newsom's objection. A federal judge ruled the deployment violated the Posse Comitatus Act.

  • 4,000 federalized National Guard and ~700 Marines deployed to Los Angeles June 7-10, 2025, at estimated $134 million cost
  • Judge Breyer issued a Posse Comitatus Act injunction on September 2, 2025, barring troop involvement in arrests, searches, and crowd control
  • Brennan Center noted the ruling provides a legal framework for states to challenge similar military deployments nationwide

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$193Mnow20352040
medium confidence$193M by 2035·$193M by 2040
A child receiving a vaccination injection from a healthcare worker
/Health & Science

RFK Jr. fires 17 ACIP advisors

Replacements made hepatitis B birth dose optional before courts reversed their actions.

All 17 sitting ACIP members fired June 9, 2025Dec 2025: hepatitis B birth dose made optionalMarch 16, 2026 court order restored June 2024 schedule

Kennedy dismissed the entire ACIP vaccine advisory panel and replaced it with appointees including Robert Malone, who CBS News reported was accused of spreading misinformation about mRNA COVID vaccines. In March 2026 a federal court stayed the new appointments and all of the reconstituted panel's votes; the government has appealed.

  • May 2025: Kennedy directed the CDC to drop its COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for healthy children and pregnant women; the March 2026 court order did not block this directive
  • December 2025: ACIP voted to make hepatitis B birth dose optional - reversed by March 2026 court order
  • March 16, 2026: Judge Brian Murphy (D. Mass.) stayed all ACIP reconstitution actions, restored June 2024 immunization schedule
New American citizens at a 2024 U.S. naturalization ceremony.
/Immigration

DOJ prioritizes stripping citizenship

A June 2025 memo directs attorneys to maximally pursue civil denaturalization of naturalized Americans.

Top-5 DOJ priorityGoal of 100-200 cases/month in 2026~25M naturalized citizens (2023)

The June 11, 2025 DOJ Civil Division memo ordered attorneys to prioritize civil denaturalization, which, a law professor told NPR, carries a lower burden of proof and no right to an attorney. A document circulated to USCIS in December 2025 set a goal of 100-200 denaturalizations a month in 2026. Close to 25 million Americans are naturalized citizens.

  • Civil denaturalization named a top-five DOJ Civil Division priority
  • December 2025 guidance circulated to USCIS set a goal of 100-200 denaturalization cases per month in 2026
  • Close to 25 million immigrants were naturalized US citizens as of 2023
B-2 Spirit stealth bomber in flight at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam
/Foreign Policy

US strikes Iran's nuclear sites; ceasefire

Iran's enriched uranium stockpile location remains unaccounted for after the strikes.

7 B-2 bombers, 14 bunker-buster MOPs, 24+ Tomahawks deployed June 21, 2025Iran retaliated with ~14 missiles on Al Udeid Air Base June 23~400 kg of 60%-enriched uranium stockpile location unaccounted for

US B-2 bombers struck Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities; Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles against the US base in Qatar that is home to thousands of US troops. A ceasefire was reached but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile location is unconfirmed.

  • Seven B-2 bombers, 125+ aircraft, 14 MOPs, and 24+ Tomahawks struck Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan - June 21, 2025
  • Iran launched 14 ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base - June 23, 2025; one got through and damaged a radome, with no US casualties
  • Iran's ~400 kg of 60%-enriched uranium (IAEA estimate) not accounted for after the strikes; VP Vance said Iran still controlled the stockpile - June 2025

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$2Bnow20352040
medium confidence$2.04B by 2035·$2.04B by 2040
Old-growth hemlock and spruce coastal forest in the Tongass National Forest, Alaska.
/Environment & Energy

Roadless forest protections targeted

USDA moved to open about 58.5 million acres of roadless national forest to logging and roads.

~58.5M acres of roadless areasBars most roadbuilding and logging thereRescission proposed; comments due Oct 6, 2026

USDA moved to rescind the 2001 Roadless Rule, which generally bars roadbuilding and logging on about 58.5 million acres of national forest, citing the president's order to expand timber production. The proposal was published in August 2026.

  • Targets the 2001 Roadless Rule covering about 58.5 million acres of inventoried roadless areas
  • The proposed rescission cites Executive Order 14225 (March 2025), Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production
  • Conservation groups, including Earthjustice, said they would challenge the rescission in court
ICE officers escort a detainee across an airfield toward a waiting ICE Air charter aircraft.
/Immigration

Migrants sent to unrelated nations

After the Supreme Court lifted notice rules, the US deported migrants to South Sudan, Eswatini, and Ghana.

SCOTUS lifted notice June 238 men to South SudanSolitary in Eswatini

Following the June 23, 2025 Supreme Court order removing advance-notice requirements, the US deported migrants to third countries where they had no ties. Eight men went to South Sudan, others to Eswatini's solitary confinement and to Ghana. Immigration lawyers say third-country removals are used to indirectly force asylum-seekers back to their home countries.

  • Eight men deported to South Sudan, citizens of Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Myanmar, Vietnam and South Sudan
  • Men deported to Eswatini held in solitary confinement
  • A federal court set aside the third-country removal policy; the First Circuit largely affirmed on Sept. 18, 2026 and lifted its stay on Sept. 23, and the government said the order forced it to cancel a removal flight to three countries while it sought a Supreme Court stay.
Gas flare burning off methane at the Rheinland Raffinerie chemical plant, Wesseling, Germany
/Environment & Energy

Methane compliance deadlines delayed 18 months

EPA extended compliance deadlines, forgoing 3.8 million tons of methane reductions.

3.8M tons of methane unreduced per EPA's own analysisApr 2026: flaring window extended from 24 to 72 hoursFinal rule published Dec 3, 2025

EPA issued an interim final rule extending methane compliance deadlines by 18 months for oil and gas operations. EPA's own fact sheet estimated the delay forgoes 3.8 million tons of methane reductions, plus 960,000 tons of VOCs and 36,000 tons of toxic air pollutants, between 2028 and 2038.

  • EPA's fact sheet on the July 2025 interim final rule estimated 3.8 million tons of methane reductions will not occur as a result of the delay between 2028-2038, along with 960,000 tons of VOCs and 36,000 tons of toxic air pollutants.
  • In April 2026 EPA finalized changes to the 2024 methane rule itself, extending the window for emergency flaring at new oil wells from 24 to 72 hours, and said it was developing a further proposal to amend the rule.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$6Bnow20352040
medium confidence$5.50B by 2035·$5.50B by 2040
CBS Television City broadcast complex in the Fairfax District of Los Angeles.
/Media & Institutions

Paramount pays Trump amid merger review

A $16M settlement preceded FCC merger approval, a late-night cancellation, and a pulled "60 Minutes" segment at CBS.

$16M settlement before $8B Skydance approvalColbert's "Late Show" canceled after "bribe" lineWeiss pulled a "60 Minutes" segment

Paramount paid $16M to settle Trump's "60 Minutes" suit just before the FCC cleared its Skydance merger. CBS canceled Colbert's show, and new chief Bari Weiss later pulled a "60 Minutes" segment.

  • CBS canceled "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" days after he called the $16M settlement "a big fat bribe."
  • New CBS News chief Bari Weiss pulled a "60 Minutes" segment in December 2025, sparking a newsroom revolt.
Aerial view of the Florida Everglades showing a vast expanse of sawgrass marsh transitioning to coastal wetland habitat.
/Immigration

Florida's Everglades detention camp

A state-run camp for federal immigration detainees drew reports of inhuman conditions; it was emptied and demobilized in June 2026 at an estimated $1.2B total cost.

~3,000-person capacity, opened July 3, 2025Reports of inhuman conditionsEmptied and demobilized June 2026; total cost est. $1.2B

Florida opened its first state-run immigration detention camp on a remote Everglades airfield in July 2025 to hold federal immigration detainees, without a federal environmental impact study; the Trump administration promoted it and President Trump toured the site in July 2025. Amnesty International and an NPR-covered report documented overflowing toilets, maggot-infested food, and denial of water. By June 2026 the remaining detainees had been transferred out, and on June 22 Florida ordered full demobilization of the site, at an estimated total cost of $1.2 billion.

  • Camp opened with ~3,000 capacity
  • Reports documented overflowing toilets, maggot-infested food, and denied water
  • Florida began shutting the camp down in May 2026 amid total costs estimated near $1 billion (above the earlier ~$450M/year and $608M-sought figures); remaining detainees (~1,400) were transferred out, with the last leaving in June 2026.
President Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act at a table on the South Lawn of the White House, surrounded by lawmakers and officials, with press photographers in the foreground.
/Economy & Trade

"Big Beautiful Bill": $4.5T tax cuts, +$3.4T deficit

Tax cuts weighted to top earners, paid for partly by Medicaid and SNAP cuts, adding ~$3.4T to the debt.

~$4.5T in tax cuts; ~$3.4T added to the deficit ($4.1T w/ interest)Senate 51-50, VP Vance tiebreak; signed July 4, 2025Top 10% get ~80% of the value; lowest earners net worse off (PWBM)

Signed July 4, 2025, the reconciliation law (H.R. 1) made the 2017 tax cuts permanent and added temporary deductions - about $4.5 trillion over a decade - partly offset by ~$1.4 trillion in Medicaid, SNAP, and student-aid cuts. CBO scored a ~$3.4 trillion deficit increase; the Penn Wharton Budget Model finds the top 10% receive about 80% of the value while the lowest-income fifth ends up worse off.

  • CBO estimated the law increases the deficit by ~$3.4 trillion over 2025-2034 (conventional), composed of ~$4.5 trillion in lost revenue offset by ~$1.1 trillion in net spending cuts; ~$4.1 trillion including interest.
  • Permanently extending the 2017 law's lower individual income tax rates is the largest single piece (~$2.2 trillion); new temporary deductions - no tax on tips and overtime and a $6,000 senior deduction - expire after 2028, while the SALT cap rises to $40,000 through 2029 before reverting to $10,000 in 2030.
  • The Penn Wharton Budget Model projected the lowest-income quintile is net worse off after the Medicaid and SNAP cuts - about -1.1% of income in 2027, worsening to -7.4% by 2033 - while the top 10% of the income distribution receives about 80 percent of the total value.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$7.3Tnow20352040
medium confidence$4.49T by 2035·$7.27T by 2040
Offshore wind turbines lined along the horizon of the North Sea
/Environment & Energy

Reconciliation law eliminates most IRA clean-energy credits

Congress ended the EV credit, solar credit, and wind production credits ahead of schedule.

$7,500 EV credit ended for purchases after Sept 30, 2025Residential solar credit ended after Dec 31, 2025Wind/solar credits end after 2027 unless begun by July 4, 2026

The reconciliation law signed July 4, 2025, ended the EV credits for purchases after September 30, 2025 and the residential solar and home-efficiency credits after December 31, 2025, and cut off wind and solar production and investment credits for projects placed in service after 2027 unless construction began by July 4, 2026.

  • EV tax credits ($7,500 new / $4,000 used) terminated for purchases after September 30, 2025; residential solar credit terminated for installations after December 31, 2025 - years ahead of schedule.
  • Wind and solar investment/production tax credits restricted to projects that begin construction by July 4, 2026 or are placed in service by the end of 2027.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$139Bnow20352040
medium confidence$139.00B by 2035·$139.00B by 2040
The six stone columns of the Francis Quadrangle in front of the domed Jesse Hall at the University of Missouri, under a cloudy blue sky.
/Federal Government

Student loans overhauled; Grad PLUS ended

New borrowing caps and a single repayment plan cut federal spending by ~$284B (CBO) by shifting costs onto borrowers.

~$284B cut over 2025-2034 (CBO, education title)Grad PLUS eliminated; SAVE/PAYE/ICR sunset$257,500 lifetime borrowing cap; effective July 1, 2026

H.R. 1 ended Grad PLUS loans, replaced income-driven repayment with a single plan, and capped borrowing - with CBO scoring the law's education title at about $284 billion in spending cuts. It narrows financing for graduate and professional students and raises payments for many low-income borrowers.

  • CBO estimated the law's education title (Title VIII) reduces federal direct spending by about $284.0 billion over 2025-2034; the loan-repayment changes account for about $269.1 billion and the new loan limits about $44.2 billion, partly offset by Pell Grant changes and interactions.
  • Grad PLUS loans end and the SAVE/PAYE/ICR repayment plans sunset (borrowers moved to the new Repayment Assistance Plan by 2028), effective July 1, 2026, with a new $257,500 lifetime borrowing cap.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$0now20352040
medium confidence$0 by 2035·$0 by 2040
Emergency services entrance at Parkview Pueblo West Hospital in Pueblo West, Colorado
/Health & Science

Reconciliation law projects leaving 10M uninsured

The largest Medicaid cut in history imposes work requirements and eligibility redeterminations.

CBO: 10M additional uninsured by 2034$990B in gross Medicaid/CHIP cuts over 10 years1.3M uninsured added in 2026 alone

The July 4, 2025 reconciliation law imposes Medicaid work requirements and semi-annual eligibility checks while cutting ACA marketplace subsidies. CBO projects 10 million Americans will lose health coverage by 2034, with losses starting in 2026.

  • CBO (August 2025): 10 million additional uninsured by 2034; $990B gross Medicaid/CHIP cut over 10 years
  • 1.3 million uninsured added in 2026 alone; Medicaid work requirements account for majority of projected losses
  • Enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025, projected to add 4.2 million uninsured by 2034

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$144Bnow20352040
medium confidence$144.00B by 2035·$144.00B by 2040
A shopper swipes an EBT benefits card at a grocery-store self-checkout terminal.
/Health & Science

Largest SNAP cut in history: ~$186 billion

Expanded work requirements and a first-ever state cost-share shrink food assistance for millions.

~$186B cut over a decade (CBO) - largest everWork requirements to age 64; live since Nov 1, 2025SNAP enrollment down >13% (5.6M) May 2025-May 2026

The reconciliation law cut SNAP by roughly $186 billion - the biggest cut in the program's history - by expanding work requirements to older adults and parents and, for the first time, making states pay 5-15% of benefit costs from 2028. Enrollment fell from 42.2 million in May 2025 to 36.6 million in May 2026.

  • CBO scored H.R. 1's SNAP provisions at roughly $186 billion in reduced federal spending over 2025-2034 - the largest SNAP cut in history.
  • SNAP enrollment fell from 42.2 million in May 2025 to 36.6 million in May 2026, a drop of more than 13%, as the expanded work requirements took hold.
  • A new state benefit cost-share of 5-15% (tied to payment-error rates) begins FY2028, and the federal administrative-cost match drops from 50% to 25% (FY2027), pressuring state budgets.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$0now20352040
medium confidence$0 by 2035·$0 by 2040
West facade of the United States Capitol building, Washington DC
/Immigration

Reconciliation law funds $45B ICE detention buildout

$45B for detention could fund at least 116,000 beds, and ICE's detention budget rises 308% to $14B+ a year.

$45B for detention, est. 116,000+ beds (signed July 4, 2025)$29.9B for ICE enforcement operationsDetention budget at least $14B/yr through FY2029 (+308%)

H.R. 1 provided $45 billion to expand ICE detention and $29.9 billion for ICE enforcement operations. The American Immigration Council estimates the money could fund at least 116,000 beds and lifts ICE's detention budget to at least $14 billion a year through FY 2029.

  • $45 billion for ICE detention capacity expansion (estimated to fund at least 116,000 beds) and $29.9 billion for enforcement operations signed into law July 4, 2025.
  • ICE's annual detention budget rises to at least $14 billion through FY 2029, a 308% increase over FY 2024.
  • A 2-1 Fifth Circuit panel ruled on July 2, 2026 that immigrants held under the administration's no-bond detention policy cannot be detained longer than 90 days without a bond hearing; immigrants had filed nearly 47,000 habeas petitions in the administration's first 13 months (ProPublica figure).

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$170Bnow20352040
high confidence$169.92B by 2035·$169.92B by 2040
Aerial view of a Brazilian harbor district with port infrastructure, cranes, ships, and a waterway through a coastal city.
/Foreign Policy

Brazil tariff over Bolsonaro trial struck down

Trump's 50% tariff, explicitly tied to Bolsonaro's prosecution, was vacated by the Supreme Court in Feb 2026; a new 25% Section 301 tariff took effect July 22, 2026.

50% rate, the highest in that week's tariff letters, vacated by SCOTUS Feb 2026Explicitly tied to Bolsonaro 'Witch Hunt' trial; Bolsonaro convicted 2025New 25% Section 301 tariff on most Brazilian goods from July 22, 2026

Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and openly linked it to Brazil's prosecution of his ally Jair Bolsonaro. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA basis in February 2026, dropping Brazilian goods to the 10% Section 122 global tariff; after USTR proposed new ~25% tariffs in June over deforestation and digital-trade practices, a 25% Section 301 tariff on most Brazilian goods took effect July 22, 2026.

  • The 50% rate was by far the highest in that week's round of tariff letters, despite a US goods-trade surplus with Brazil of more than $7 billion in 2024
  • Tariff explicitly tied to Bolsonaro's prosecution, which Trump called a 'Witch Hunt'; Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025
  • President Lula condemned the move as interference and vowed reciprocal tariffs
Harry S. Truman Building, headquarters of the United States Department of State, Washington D.C.
/Foreign Policy

Foreign service loses 25% in 2025

1,100+ civil servants and 246 foreign service officers received layoff notices in July 2025.

1,107 civil servants and 246 FSOs received layoff notices July 2025~25% of foreign service gone since Jan 2025 (AFSA)98% of surveyed diplomats reported declining morale

State Department layoffs and departures cost the Foreign Service about 2,000 diplomats in a year, and nearly a hundred US embassies lacked Senate-confirmed ambassadors by May 2026. In AFSA's survey, 86% of diplomats said the changes hurt their ability to carry out US foreign policy.

  • 1,107 civil servants and 246 foreign service officers received layoff notices - July 2025
  • 25% of the foreign service had resigned, retired, seen their agencies dismantled (e.g. USAID), or been removed from their posts since January 2025, per AFSA's December 2025 report
  • 98% of foreign service members surveyed by AFSA said morale had declined since January 2025; one-third were considering leaving early
EPA scientists collecting water samples from a research vessel at the agency's Gulf Coast water-supply laboratory.
/Environment & Energy

EPA shutters research office

The agency's independent science arm was eliminated amid mass layoffs.

Up to ~1,155 scientists faced layoffsORD eliminatedStaff cut of nearly 23% planned

EPA eliminated its Office of Research and Development, its independent science arm, threatening up to about 1,155 scientist layoffs. EPA said total staffing would fall nearly 23% from January 2025 levels, to 12,448.

  • Up to about 1,155 of roughly 1,540 ORD scientists faced layoffs
  • EPA said total staffing would fall to 12,448, a cut of more than 3,700 employees, or nearly 23%, from January 2025
  • ORD replaced by a new Office of Applied Science and Environmental Solutions, housed in the Office of the Administrator
GCHQ headquarters building at Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, known as the Doughnut, a key Five Eyes intelligence agency
/Foreign Policy

Ukraine intel restricted from Five Eyes

A DNI memo reportedly barred sharing Ukraine peace-talk intelligence with the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Gabbard memo dated July 20, 2025 directed NOFORN classificationFormer officials warned allies could build channels without the USODNI publicly denied the reporting

US intelligence officials told CBS News the Director of National Intelligence signed a memo restricting intelligence on Ukraine-Russia negotiations from Five Eyes partners; ODNI called the reporting false. Former officials warned the restriction could chill allied intelligence sharing, while others called such restrictions routine.

  • Gabbard memo dated 2025-07-20 directed NOFORN classification for all Ukraine-Russia peace-talk intelligence, confirmed by multiple intelligence officials to CBS News
  • National Interest (August 2025) assessed the restriction as potentially "catastrophic" for Five Eyes cohesion and US intelligence access
  • ODNI denied the reporting; restriction's current scope remains disputed
Cornell University campus buildings, North Campus area.
/Civil Rights

Grant freezes coerce university settlements

Brown and Cornell settled to unfreeze funds; UCLA refused and beat the freeze in court.

Brown committed $50M to workforce programs to unfreeze ~$510MCornell paid $60M to unfreeze $250MUCLA faced a $1.2B demand but won an injunction; appeal dropped Feb 2026

After the administration froze their research grants, Brown and Cornell reached multimillion-dollar settlements with policy changes to restore funding. UCLA, facing a $1.2B demand after $584M was suspended, did not capitulate: a judge enjoined the freeze as coercive and the administration dropped its appeal in February 2026.

  • Brown committed $50 million to workforce-development programs (no payment to the federal government) and adopted policy changes to unfreeze about $510M in research funding.
  • Cornell paid $60M to unfreeze $250M; UCLA had $584M suspended and faced a $1.2B demand ($1B fine plus a $172M Title VII fund).
  • UCLA did not capitulate: Judge Rita Lin restored the grants and enjoined the freeze as "coercive and retaliatory" (Nov 14, 2025), and the administration dropped its appeal around Feb 13, 2026.
Grocery store aisle in Vermont showing consumer goods whose prices are affected by tariffs
/Economy & Trade

2025 tariffs cost average household $2,400

Yale Budget Lab found the burden is about three times larger as a share of income for the lowest-income households than for the highest.

Yale Budget Lab: $2,400 per-household purchasing-power lossApril 2026 estimate: bottom decile ~$517/yr, top ~$2,175/yrEffective tariff rate hit 7.7% - highest since 1947

Yale Budget Lab estimated all 2025 tariffs cost the average household $2,300-$2,400 in lost purchasing power in the short run; the Tax Foundation estimated an average $1,000 tax increase per household in 2025. As a share of income, the burden is about three times larger for the bottom tenth of households than the top tenth, per Yale's April 2026 estimate.

  • Yale Budget Lab (July 2025): all 2025 tariffs raise price levels 1.8% in short run, equivalent to $2,400 per household income loss.
  • Yale Budget Lab (April 2026, tariffs in place after the IEEPA ruling, assuming Section 122 tariffs expire): bottom-decile households lose ~$517/year and top-decile ~$2,175/year (2025 dollars); as a share of income the bottom decile's burden is about three times the top decile's - the tariff is regressive.
  • Tax Foundation (2026): effective tariff rate reached 7.7% in 2025, highest since 1947; customs revenues jumped from $79B (2024) to $264B (2025).
U.S. Secretary of Labor arrives at the U.S. Department of Labor building, March 2025.
/Economy & Trade

Trump fires BLS jobs-data chief

Commissioner ousted after a weak report, after Trump said she had "faked" the numbers.

July report: only 73,000 jobs added~258,000 in downward May/June revisionsUrban Institute: BLS funding at its lowest point since 2001

After a weak July jobs report and large downward revisions, Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, saying she had "faked the Jobs Numbers"; her Trump-appointed predecessor called the firing "totally groundless." The commissioner does not produce the underlying estimates that markets, the Fed, and Social Security COLA rely on.

  • July 2025 report showed just 73,000 jobs added plus ~258,000 in downward revisions to May and June
  • Urban Institute: inflation-adjusted BLS spending fell more than 13% over the past 20 years, and BLS funding is at its lowest point since 2001
Naval Health Clinic Lemoore staff preparing Moderna COVID-19 vaccine doses for administration
/Health & Science

HHS cancels $500M BARDA mRNA contracts

Terminating mRNA contracts undercut pandemic preparedness while H5N1 remains an active threat.

22 contracts (~$500M) terminated Aug 5-6, 2025$766M Moderna H5N1 vaccine contract cancelled May 28, 2025 after positive Phase I resultsFormer BARDA director Rick Bright called it a 'self-inflicted vulnerability'

HHS cancelled 22 BARDA-funded mRNA vaccine contracts worth about $500 million, after separately cancelling a $766 million Moderna H5N1 pandemic-influenza vaccine contract. Former BARDA director Rick Bright called the decision a "self-inflicted vulnerability."

  • 22 mRNA contracts (~$500M) terminated August 5-6, 2025; includes Moderna and Pfizer projects
  • $766M Moderna H5N1 mRNA vaccine contract cancelled May 28, 2025, as Moderna announced positive interim early-stage trial results
  • Former BARDA director Rick Bright called the decision a "self-inflicted vulnerability"
An oil and chemical tanker ship underway at sea.
/Foreign Policy

India tariff doubled to 50% over Russian oil

A penalty tariff strained a key Indo-Pacific partner before being lifted.

25% penalty stacked to a punitive 50% totalImposed over India's Russian crude purchasesLifted Feb 7, 2026; the order said India had committed to stop Russian oil imports

Trump added a 25% penalty tariff on India over its Russian oil imports, doubling the total to 50%, one of the highest US rates anywhere. The move strained a partnership two decades in the making before being reversed in early 2026.

  • Additional 25% penalty stacked on a 25% reciprocal tariff for a punitive 50% total
  • Tariff justified as punishment for India's Russian crude oil purchases, invoking Russia's war as a national emergency
  • Penalty removed effective Feb 7, 2026 (EO 14384) after India committed to stop importing Russian oil; India had cut Russian crude purchases from ~1.56M to ~0.94M barrels/day between August and early November 2025
The U.S. Census Bureau headquarters building in Suitland, Maryland.
/Civil Rights

Trump seeks census without undocumented

Trump directed a new census excluding people in the country illegally; a September 2026 proposed rule would exclude them from the decennial count.

Directive posted on social media August 7, 2025Expert: a mid-decade count is almost impossible14th Amendment counts "the whole number of persons"

Trump directed Commerce to begin a new census that would not count people in the country illegally. A census expert called a mid-decade count almost logistically impossible, the 14th Amendment counts the whole number of persons in each state, and a September 2026 Census Bureau proposed rule would exclude undocumented immigrants from the decennial census.

  • A census and redistricting expert said a mid-decade census on that timeline would be almost logistically impossible.
  • The 14th Amendment requires apportionment to count "the whole number of persons in each state."
  • The Census Bureau proposed residence rules that would keep counting lawful permanent residents but exclude undocumented immigrants from the decennial census; comments close Oct. 13, 2026.
Facade and sign of the New York Stock Exchange on Broad Street.
/Economy & Trade

401(k)s opened to crypto, private equity

An executive order eases alternative assets such as private equity and crypto into retirement plans.

EO targets PE, crypto, real estate, commoditiesDOL rescinded cautionary PE guidanceAffects tens of millions of savers

Trump's August 7, 2025 order directs DOL, the SEC, and Treasury to ease alternative assets like private equity and crypto into 401(k) plans, and DOL quickly rescinded Biden-era caution on private equity. The shift exposes retirement savers to illiquid, high-fee, volatile holdings with weaker protections.

  • Executive order directs DOL, SEC, and Treasury to ease private equity, crypto, real estate, and commodities into 401(k)s
  • DOL rescinded Biden-era cautionary private-equity guidance within days of the order
  • The Labor Department proposed a rule (March 31, 2026) giving plan fiduciaries a safe harbor when selecting 401(k) investment options, including asset-allocation funds that hold alternative assets, to implement Executive Order 14330; comments closed June 1, 2026
An Army National Guard military police soldier stands guard near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C.
/Rule of Law

Troops sent to US cities; most pulled, DC stays

Courts ruled against the Chicago and Los Angeles deployments and troops were pulled from those cities and Portland; the DC deployment continued.

DC police federalized despite 30-year-low violent crimeSupreme Court blocked Chicago deployment Dec 23Chicago, LA, Portland troops pulled Dec 31; DC stayed

Trump federalized DC's police and deployed the National Guard to the capital, then sought deployments to Chicago and Portland over governors' objections. Courts ruled against the Chicago and Los Angeles deployments, the Supreme Court refused the Chicago deployment, and troops were withdrawn from Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland at year's end. The DC deployment continued.

  • The Supreme Court declined to authorize the Chicago National Guard deployment on December 23, 2025, a major loss for the administration.
  • Trump withdrew the National Guard from Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland on December 31, 2025.
The western front of the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

Texas redraw challenged as diluting minority votes

A DOJ-prompted mid-decade redraw shifted up to five Democratic-held, largely minority seats toward the GOP; a federal panel blocked it as a likely racial gerrymander, but SCOTUS reinstated it via an unsigned shadow-docket order.

Up to five seats flipped toward RepublicansFederal panel found a likely racial gerrymanderSCOTUS reinstated the map 6-3 via an unsigned shadow-docket order, Apr 27, 2026

A DOJ letter pressured Texas into a mid-decade redistricting converting largely minority seats toward the GOP. A federal panel blocked it, but the Supreme Court reinstated the map - first for the 2026 primaries, then via a brief unsigned April 2026 shadow-docket order permitting it for the full cycle.

  • A three-judge federal panel found the map a likely unconstitutional racial gerrymander and blocked it.
  • The Supreme Court allowed Texas to use the challenged map for the 2026 primaries on an interim basis (Dec 4, 2025).
  • The Supreme Court issued a brief unsigned (shadow-docket) order, 6-3, April 27, 2026 summarily reversing the panel and reinstating the Texas map, citing back to its December 2025 stay; the three liberal justices dissented. The map is permitted for the full 2026 cycle.
Ornate cast-iron balcony on the marble facade of the Federal Reserve (Marriner S. Eccles) Building in Washington, D.C.
/Economy & Trade

Trump moves to fire a Fed governor

A bid to fire a Fed governor and reshape the board.

Attempted "for cause" firing of Gov. Lisa CookSupreme Court refused 5-4 (June 29, 2026) to let Trump remove CookMiran confirmed to Fed board 48-47

Trump attempted to fire Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations she denies, but courts blocked it, and on June 29, 2026 the Supreme Court refused 5-4 to let the removal take effect while her suit proceeds. In August 2026 the White House told Cook that Trump was again considering removing her. Trump also installed his economic adviser Stephen Miran on the board, and his nominee Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as chair.

  • Attempted "for cause" firing of a sitting Fed governor; Supreme Court heard argument January 21, 2026
  • Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to the Fed board 48-47, where he pushed outsized rate cuts
  • Supreme Court denied Trump's application to let Cook's removal take effect, 5-4 (Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh, Jackson; Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Barrett dissenting)
A CDC scientist in protective equipment uses a pipette to transfer virus samples into vials inside a biosafety cabinet.
/Health & Science

CDC director ousted, deputies quit

Susan Monarez was removed weeks after confirmation after, she testified, refusing to pre-approve RFK Jr.'s vaccine panel recommendations.

Monarez fired less than a month after Senate confirmationAt least four senior CDC leaders resigned in protestAgency left effectively leaderless amid an active measles outbreak

The White House removed CDC Director Susan Monarez on August 27, 2025; she later testified that she had refused Kennedy's request to pre-approve vaccine advisory panel recommendations, which Kennedy denies. Chief medical officer Debra Houry and other top officials resigned, leaving the CDC effectively leaderless.

  • At least four senior CDC leaders resigned in protest
  • CDC left effectively leaderless during an active measles outbreak
A COSCO Shipping container vessel loaded with cargo containers in the Port of Rotterdam.
/Economy & Trade

Duty-free package exemption ends

The $800 de minimis break ended for all countries, adding fees to cheap imports.

$800 exemption ended for all countriesFlat $80-$200 postal duties for six months1.3 billion+ foreign packages arrived in 2024

Trump suspended the $800 de minimis duty-free exemption, first for China and Hong Kong and then globally on August 29, 2025. Low-value packages face ad valorem duties (flat $80-$200 postal fees applied for the first six months), raising costs on cheap goods lower-income households buy.

  • $800 de minimis exemption ended for all countries Aug 29, 2025, after a May 2 suspension for China and Hong Kong
  • Low-value postal packages faced ad valorem duties or, for six months, flat per-package duties of $80-$200; the US received more than 1.3 billion foreign packages in 2024
  • Executive Order 14388 (Feb 20, 2026) continued the de minimis suspension for all countries after the Supreme Court IEEPA ruling
U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54) underway at sea.
/Foreign Policy

US boat strikes kill 200+; campaign widens to Venezuela

Lethal strikes on alleged drug boats, begun before Congress was notified, escalated into a direct Venezuela intervention.

At least 227 killed in 68 strikes since Sept 2, 2025 (as of late Aug 2026)Jan 3, 2026: a US military operation in Caracas captured President MaduroSenate war-powers resolutions to halt it failed

The US military carried out dozens of strikes on small boats it called drug vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 227 people by late August 2026 with no judicial process. Trump notified Congress only after strikes began; by January 2026 the campaign had escalated into a direct intervention in Venezuela, including a military operation in Caracas that captured President Maduro.

  • More than 200 people killed in strikes on more than 60 boats with no judicial process as of early June 2026
  • First strike's 'double-tap' killed two survivors clinging to wreckage, now investigated as a possible war crime
  • Administration notified Congress in early October 2025 that the US is in an 'armed conflict' with drug cartels; Senate war-powers resolutions failed 48-51 (October) and 49-51 (Nov 6, 2025)
DHS officials and ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers during an operation in Los Angeles, June 2025.
/Immigration

ICE kills immigrant and US citizen

ICE officers fatally shot a Mexican immigrant and a US citizen amid disputed official accounts.

Villegas Gonzalez, Sept 2025US citizen Good, Jan 2026Conflicting DHS accounts

An ICE officer fatally shot Silverio Villegas Gonzalez in Franklin Park, Illinois, in September 2025, with bodycam contradicting DHS claims. In January 2026, an ICE agent fatally shot US citizen Renee Nicole Good, firing into her vehicle in Minneapolis. DHS and Minnesota officials gave conflicting accounts, and the state's Bureau of Criminal Apprehension was removed from the investigation, leaving the FBI in sole charge.

  • Bodycam showed agent calling his injuries 'nothing major' after the Franklin Park shooting
  • US citizen Renee Nicole Good fatally shot by an ICE agent who fired into her vehicle in Minneapolis
  • DHS and Minnesota officials shared contrasting accounts of the shooting
Exterior of the U.S. Department of State Harry S. Truman Building in Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

Visas, jobs lost over Kirk posts

Federal officials revoked visas and backed firings over comments about Charlie Kirk's killing, prompting First Amendment suits.

At least six visas revoked over Kirk commentsDozens of public employees fired or suspendedSeveral educators sued over free speech

The State Department solicited reports of foreigners' Kirk-related posts and revoked at least six visas. Officials backed firing public employees over their posts, prompting First Amendment lawsuits.

  • State Department revoked at least six visas over Kirk-related social-media comments and solicited public reports of foreigners' posts.
  • Dozens of public employees were fired or suspended over Kirk posts; several educators sued alleging First Amendment violations.
The west facade of the United States Supreme Court building.
/Media & Institutions

Trump's billion-dollar suits target press

A string of massive defamation actions pressures newsrooms; the NYT and WSJ suits were dismissed and refiled.

ABC/Disney settled for $15M$15B NYT suit dismissed Sept 2025, refiled Oct 16, 2025 (pending)$10B WSJ suit dismissed Apr 13, 2026, refiled May 26, 2026

Trump pursued multibillion-dollar defamation suits against ABC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. ABC settled for $15M; judges dismissed the NYT and WSJ suits with leave to amend, and Trump refiled each.

  • ABC News settled its defamation suit for $15M to Trump's library plus fees.
  • A federal judge dismissed Trump's $15B defamation suit against The New York Times on Sept 19, 2025 with leave to amend; Trump refiled an amended $15B complaint Oct 16, 2025, which remains pending.
  • The $10B WSJ/Murdoch suit was dismissed April 13, 2026 (with leave to amend, for failing to plead actual malice); Trump refiled it against the WSJ's publisher and two reporters May 26, 2026.
Exterior of an ABC-affiliate television station (WSET-TV) with satellite dishes and a broadcast tower.
/Media & Institutions

Kimmel pulled off air after FCC pressure

ABC suspended a late-night host hours after the FCC chair threatened license action over his remarks.

Carr warned the "easy way or the hard way"Nexstar and Sinclair dropped the showBack on ABC six days later (Sept 23)

ABC suspended "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" hours after FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened license action over Kimmel's Kirk monologue. The show returned days later, but the FCC later moved to challenge ABC station licenses.

  • ABC pulled the show within hours of Carr's threat; Nexstar and Sinclair preempted it. It returned to ABC Sept 23, six days later, and to Sinclair and Nexstar stations Sept 26.
  • In April 2026 the FCC ordered early license renewals for ABC's eight owned stations, citing a Disney diversity probe; the move was widely viewed as retaliation over Kimmel.
  • ABC and Disney sued the FCC Aug 18, 2026, alleging the early license review is First Amendment retaliation; the FCC asked the court to dismiss the suit in September 2026
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services official administers the Oath of Allegiance at a naturalization ceremony.
/Immigration

$100,000 fee added to H-1B

A proclamation conditioned new H-1B petitions on a $100,000 payment; courts blocked it in 2026, but it was extended to 2027 and a $103,265 fee was proposed by rule.

$100,000 per new petitionUp from ~$2,000-$5,000Vacated June 8, 2026; First Circuit refused a stay July 24; extended to 2027 and a $103,265 fee proposed

The September 2025 proclamation took effect September 21, imposing a $100,000 surcharge on new H-1B petitions that rural schools and hospitals warned threatened their recruiting. Twenty states sued, and on June 8, 2026 a Massachusetts federal court vacated the fee as an unlawful tax. The court paused its ruling only temporarily, and on July 24, 2026 the First Circuit refused to stay the vacatur, so the fee cannot be required while the administration's appeal proceeds. The President extended the proclamation to September 2027, and DHS proposed a separate $103,265 fee by rule.

  • Fee jumps from about $2,000-$5,000 in visa-related fees to $100,000 per new H-1B petition
  • Twenty states plus healthcare, education, and religious groups filed suit
  • A federal court (D. Mass.) vacated the policy implementing the $100,000 fee on June 8, 2026; it declined to stay that ruling pending appeal but entered a temporary administrative stay while the First Circuit considered the government's emergency stay motion.
Facade and inscribed doorway of the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building in Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

Antifa labeled domestic terrorist group

An executive order directs federal investigation of a diffuse movement; legal scholars say US law has no domestic-terror designation mechanism.

EO signed September 22, 2025NSPM-7 targets "organized political violence"Scholars: no US law provides for domestic-terror designations

Trump designated Antifa a domestic terrorist organization and ordered federal disruption of "organized political violence." Scholars warn the move could criminalize protected protest and association.

  • National Security Presidential Memorandum 7 directed federal investigation and disruption of "organized political violence."
  • Legal experts warned the designation has no statutory basis and could criminalize protected protest and association.
A hospital pharmacist in scrubs restocks medication into rows of labeled bins at a Navy medical center pharmacy.
/Health & Science

White House pushes Tylenol-autism claim

Trump and RFK Jr. told pregnant women to stop using acetaminophen, contradicting major medical bodies.

FDA urged physicians to minimize acetaminophen use in pregnancyLeucovorin approved only for rare cerebral folate deficiency, not autismMajor medical bodies say evidence does not support causation

At a September 22, 2025 White House event, Trump and RFK Jr. urged pregnant women to stop using Tylenol over an unproven autism link. The FDA pushed minimized use, and emergency-department acetaminophen orders for pregnant patients later fell 10%.

  • FDA sent a letter to physicians urging minimized acetaminophen use in pregnancy
  • FDA approved leucovorin only for rare cerebral folate deficiency, not autism
  • A Lancet analysis found acetaminophen orders for pregnant patients visiting emergency departments fell 10% after the announcement
Quay cranes lift shipping containers onto trucks at a US container port terminal.
/Economy & Trade

Tariffs hit drugs and furniture

New Section 232 levies span pharmaceuticals, trucks, furniture, and chips.

100% tariff on branded/patented drugsNew tariffs on trucks, furniture, lumber25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors

Commerce expanded Section 232 tariffs far beyond metals and autos, including a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals plus levies on heavy trucks, furniture, lumber, and advanced chips. The measures broaden tariff coverage across major consumer and industrial categories.

  • 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceuticals announced Sept 25, 2025, formalized April 2, 2026
  • New tariffs added on heavy trucks, furniture, lumber/timber, and a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors
Official FBI portrait of former Director James Comey, among the Trump foes indicted.
/Rule of Law

DOJ indicts Trump's political foes

Installed prosecutor charged Comey and James; a judge dismissed both, DOJ is appealing, and Bolton took a plea deal.

Comey, James indicted after Trump's public demands; both cases dismissed Nov 24, 2025DOJ appealing; two grand juries rejected re-indicting Letitia JamesBolton pleaded guilty June 26, 2026 to one classified-records count

Trump's former personal lawyer was installed as a US Attorney after her predecessor, who resisted pressure to bring the cases, was forced out, and she obtained indictments of James Comey and Letitia James. A federal judge dismissed both cases on November 24, 2025, ruling the prosecutor unlawfully appointed.

  • A federal judge dismissed the Comey and James indictments on November 24, 2025, finding interim US Attorney Lindsey Halligan was unlawfully appointed; DOJ appealed both dismissals to the Fourth Circuit and twice tried to re-indict Letitia James, but both grand juries rejected the attempts.
  • John Bolton, who had pleaded not guilty to 18 counts of mishandling classified records, agreed on June 4, 2026 to plead guilty to one count of retaining classified national security information and pay a $2.25 million fine, with a change-of-plea hearing set for June 26, 2026.
  • Bolton pleaded guilty on June 26, 2026 before Judge Theodore Chuang to one count of illegally retaining national defense information (maximum 10 years); the plea agreement caps any recommended prison sentence at five years and requires a $2.25 million fine, forfeiture of his federal retirement pay, an intelligence debriefing and up to 100 hours of community service. Sentencing is set for October 28, 2026.
University graduation procession of graduates carrying ivy arches.
/Civil Rights

White House offers universities a funding compact

The White House offered preferential funding in exchange for commitments on admissions, enrollment, tuition and campus viewpoints.

Nine universities offered the compactTerms included sex/ethnicity-blind admissions and a 15% international capAt least seven schools rejected it

The White House offered nine universities funding access in exchange for commitments on admissions, tuition, international enrollment and campus viewpoints. At least seven rejected it as a threat to academic freedom.

  • At least seven of the nine invited universities publicly rejected the compact as a threat to academic freedom.
  • The funding-for-conditions offer was later expanded to additional institutions.
Wind turbines standing in an open field in North Dakota.
/Environment & Energy

$7.5B in clean energy grants canceled

DOE canceled $7.56B for 223 clean-energy projects concentrated in states that backed Harris.

223 projects canceled$7.5B totalConcentrated in Harris states

DOE canceled about $7.56 billion in funding for 223 clean-energy projects, including hydrogen and direct air capture hubs, concentrated in states that voted for Harris. In January 2026 a federal judge ruled seven of the terminations, totaling $27.6 million, unconstitutional.

  • About $7.56 billion in funding for 223 projects canceled, concentrated in states that voted for Harris
  • More than $2 billion canceled for two West Coast hydrogen hubs (ARCHES in California and the Pacific Northwest hub)
  • In January 2026 a federal judge ruled seven of the terminations ($27.6 million) unconstitutional and vacated them
The western front of the United States Capitol, seat of the U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

Longest shutdown in US history

A 43-day lapse left 1.25 million workers unpaid and food aid delayed for tens of millions.

43 days, longest ever~1.25M workers unpaid~$11B unrecoverable GDP (CBO)

The October 1 to November 12, 2025 shutdown delayed wages for about 1.25 million federal workers and SNAP benefits for roughly 42 million people. It forced thousands of flight cancellations, and CBO estimated about $11 billion in unrecoverable GDP; a judge later ruled that four agencies' layoffs violated the reopening law's ban.

  • ~$11 billion in unrecoverable GDP, ~1.25 million workers unpaid, and ~2,000 flights canceled
  • ~$8 billion in November SNAP benefits for ~42 million recipients delayed and litigated
  • Judge ruled four agencies violated the reopening law's layoff ban and ordered ~700 RIFs rescinded or paused

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$11Bnow20352040
medium confidence$11.00B by 2035·$11.00B by 2040
A military official addresses reporters at a Pentagon press conference.
/Media & Institutions

Reporters surrender Pentagon badges over press pledge

New rules demanded reporters not publish unclassified information without approval, prompting a mass walkout.

Pledge covered even unclassified information; AP, NYT, and Fox surrendered credentialsJudge Friedman found First/Fifth Amendment violations Mar 20, 2026Follow-up ruling Apr 9, 2026 found revised restrictions violated the order

Hegseth required journalists to pledge not to publish unclassified information without approval, and dozens surrendered their Pentagon badges. After the NYT sued, a federal judge found parts of the rules unconstitutional in March 2026 and ordered credentials reinstated.

  • Dozens of correspondents, including AP, NYT, and Fox, surrendered Pentagon credentials rather than sign the pledge.
  • After the NYT sued in December 2025, U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman ruled March 20, 2026 that parts of the credential rules violated the First and Fifth Amendments and ordered seven reporters' credentials reinstated.
  • A follow-up ruling April 9, 2026 found the Pentagon's revised restrictions (e.g., closing the reporters' workspace) violated the March order.
The North Portico of the White House.
/Rule of Law

Trump pardons Binance's CZ

Clemency for the crypto founder whose company took a $2 billion investment paid in the Trump family venture's stablecoin.

CZ pleaded guilty to anti-money-laundering failuresBinance paid a $4.3 billion penaltyBinance took a $2B investment paid in the Trump family venture's USD1

Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, who had pleaded guilty to anti-money-laundering failures at Binance, which paid $4.3 billion. Binance had taken a $2 billion investment paid in the Trump family venture World Liberty Financial's USD1 stablecoin.

  • Zhao's guilty plea stemmed from anti-money-laundering failures at Binance, which paid a $4.3 billion penalty.
  • The pardon drew scrutiny of MGX's $2 billion March 2025 investment in Binance, paid in World Liberty Financial's USD1 stablecoin; Zhao later said the relationship had been "misconstrued."
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington DC, headquarters of the US Federal Reserve
/Economy & Trade

DOJ investigates Federal Reserve Chair Powell

A criminal probe that Powell said was meant to pressure the Fed on rates was dropped in April 2026, before his term as chair ended.

Criminal probe opened Nov 2025DOJ dropped investigation April 24, 2026Sen. Tillis blocked Fed nominees until it was dropped

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over renovation testimony. Powell stated the probe was intended to pressure interest-rate decisions. It was dropped on April 24, 2026, clearing the way for the Senate to confirm Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh as chair on May 13.

  • Trump said in April 2025 that Powell's "termination cannot come soon enough"; ABC News reported it was unclear whether he meant removing Powell or the end of Powell's term as chair.
  • In March 2026, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg threw out the subpoenas prosecutors had sent to Powell.
  • DOJ dropped the investigation April 24, 2026, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as Powell's successor.
Exterior of the U.S. Department of State Harry S. Truman Building in Washington, D.C.
/Foreign Policy

Leaked Ukraine plan tilts toward Russia

Draft framework would require Kyiv to cede Donbas and renounce NATO.

Ukraine would cede entire Donbas, renounce NATOUS would recognize Crimea and Donbas as RussianEurope and Kyiv condemned it as pro-Moscow

A leaked 28-point peace framework drafted by envoy Steve Witkoff after talks with Russia would require Ukraine to cede the Donbas, permanently renounce NATO membership, and cap its military. European allies and Kyiv called it overwhelmingly favorable to Moscow.

  • Plan would require Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas and permanently renounce NATO membership
  • Caps Ukraine's military at 600,000 personnel and commits NATO not to station troops in Ukraine
  • European allies and Kyiv condemned the framework as overwhelmingly favorable to Moscow
Heavy smog haze over Shanghai, China, December 1993
/Environment & Energy

EPA abandons stronger PM2.5 soot standard

EPA asked a court to strike the tighter PM2.5 limit its own 2024 analysis credited with preventing up to 4,500 deaths in 2032; the court refused.

EPA's 2024 analysis: up to 4,500 premature deaths prevented in 2032D.C. Circuit denied EPA's request and upheld the standard, June 26, 2026152M Americans live where air gets failing grades (ALA 2026)

The Trump EPA asked a federal appeals court to vacate the Biden-era PM2.5 standard, which requires stricter clean-up in more counties. On June 26, 2026, the D.C. Circuit denied the request and upheld the standard.

  • EPA's own pre-rollback modeling projected the 9 µg/m³ standard would prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths, 800,000 asthma cases, and 290,000 lost workdays per year by 2032. Abandoning the standard forgoes those benefits.
  • EPA filed a motion in the D.C. Circuit on November 24, 2025 asking the court to vacate the 2024 standard
  • The D.C. Circuit denied EPA's motion for vacatur and the petitions for review on June 26, 2026, holding that the Administrator reasonably explained how the scientific evidence supported the 2024 revision
DHS and ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers conduct an operation in Los Angeles, June 2025.
/Immigration

Nationwide asylum freeze imposed

After a DC shooting, USCIS halted Afghan processing and paused all asylum nationwide; courts vacated the freeze in June 2026.

Afghan processing halted Nov 26, 2025PM-602-0192 paused all I-589 asylum casesAll four policies vacated June 5, 2026 (appeal pending)

Following the November 26, 2025 DC National Guard shooting by an Afghan parolee, USCIS halted Afghan processing and the December 2 memo PM-602-0192 paused all I-589 asylum adjudications nationwide. By March 30, 2026 USCIS had lifted the hold for asylum applicants from non-high-risk countries, and on June 5, 2026 a Rhode Island federal court vacated all four freeze policies as unlawful, ordering adjudications to restart; an appeal is pending.

  • USCIS halted all Afghan immigration processing on November 26, 2025
  • PM-602-0192 paused all pending I-589 asylum and withholding adjudications nationwide
  • Re-review of approved benefits for nationals entering on or after Jan 20, 2021 (the Comprehensive Re-Review Policy) was among the four policies later vacated as unlawful.
The brutalist Hubert H. Humphrey Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, in Washington, D.C.
/Economy & Trade

ACA subsidies expire, premiums spike

Enhanced marketplace tax credits lapsed; KFF estimates enrollees' premium payments rose 58% on average in 2026.

~7.3M lose subsidized coverage~4.8M projected newly uninsured~340,000 jobs projected lost in 2026

Congress and the administration let the enhanced ACA premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025. KFF estimates enrollees' premium payments rose 58% on average in 2026, and 114% for those keeping the same plan. Projections include millions newly uninsured, a $31 billion drop in federal premium tax credit funding, and roughly 340,000 job losses in 2026.

  • ~7.3M lose subsidized coverage; ~4.8M projected newly uninsured, with premiums more than doubling for subsidized enrollees
  • ~340,000 jobs projected lost in 2026 as federal premium tax credit funding falls ~$31B
  • Effectuated ACA Marketplace enrollment fell to 19.2 million in February 2026 from 22.1 million in 2025 (-13%); HHS attributed the drop to program-integrity efforts that stopped or ended about 2.9 million enrollments it called improper, while KFF pointed to steep increases in premium payments after the enhanced tax credits expired
The Cost
2026
U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman administering a vaccine to a crew member aboard USS George H.W. Bush
/Health & Science

CDC downgrades 6 childhood vaccine recommendations

After a presidential directive, routine recommendations fell from 17 diseases to 11; a court blocked it.

Routine recommendations cut from 17 diseases to 11, Jan 2026Federal court blocked implementation March 16, 2026Court found new ACIP appointments violated federal advisory law

After a December 2025 presidential memorandum, a January 2026 CDC decision memo downgraded six routine childhood vaccine recommendations to risk-based or shared decision-making, cutting routine recommendations from 17 diseases to 11. A federal judge stayed the change in March 2026, restoring the June 2024 schedule; the government has appealed.

  • January 5, 2026: routine recommendations cut from 17 diseases to 11; six recommendations downgraded to risk-based or shared clinical decision-making under a presidential directive
  • March 16, 2026: Judge Brian Murphy (D. Mass.) blocked the revised schedule; June 2024 schedule restored
  • Court found new ACIP appointments violated Federal Advisory Committee Act for lacking "fair balance" in vaccine expertise
Yangshupu Power Plant with smokestacks at sunset along the Huangpu River, Shanghai
/Environment & Energy

EPA rescinds greenhouse gas Endangerment Finding

Rescinding the GHG Endangerment Finding repealed all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards.

Final rule effective April 20, 2026All GHG standards for model years 2012-2027 simultaneously repealedGroups sued Feb 18; 24 states sued March 19, 2026

EPA finalized a rule rescinding the 2009 determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health and repealing all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards under the Clean Air Act. Health and environmental groups and 24 states have challenged it in the D.C. Circuit.

  • Federal Register publication on 2026-02-18 (Document 2026-03157) confirms the rule's effective date of April 20, 2026; all GHG standards for model years 2012-2027 vehicles simultaneously repealed.
  • Two D.C. Circuit challenges: No. 26-1037, filed February 18, 2026 by 17 health and environmental groups including the American Lung Association, Sierra Club and Environmental Defense Fund; and No. 26-1061, filed March 19, 2026 by 24 states, 10 cities, five counties, the District of Columbia and others, led by New York, Massachusetts, California and Connecticut. A petition asking EPA to reconsider the rule was filed April 16, 2026, and the parties moved to delay merits briefing pending EPA's response.
  • EPA separately proposed rescinding the greenhouse-gas findings for fossil-fuel-fired power plants and repealing their GHG emission standards
Heavy traffic congestion on a Los Angeles freeway, California
/Environment & Energy

Vehicle greenhouse-gas standards repealed

Repeal forgoes EPA-projected $6,000 per-driver savings and up to 2,500 prevented deaths in 2055.

EPA's 2024 analysis: ~$6,000 per vehicle in fuel and maintenance savings lostMore than 7 billion tons of projected carbon cuts no longer requiredNHTSA separately proposed CAFE rollback Dec 2025

The February 2026 Endangerment Finding rescission repealed all federal vehicle GHG standards through model year 2027+. Separately, in December 2025 NHTSA proposed rolling back fuel economy standards.

  • EPA's 2024 projections: the repealed standards would save the average driver about $6,000 in fuel and maintenance over a vehicle's life, avoid more than 7 billion tons of carbon emissions, and prevent up to 2,500 premature deaths in 2055.
  • NHTSA separately proposed a CAFE rollback in December 2025, compounding the weakening of fuel efficiency requirements for new vehicles.
West facade of the United States Supreme Court Building at dusk in Washington DC
/Economy & Trade

Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs

Court ruled tariffs are reserved to Congress, invalidating the basis for most 2025 tariffs.

Supreme Court ruled 6-3 Feb 20, 2026~$166B in IEEPA tariffs collected; about $100B certified for refund to importers by early August 2026Section 122 replacement also struck down (CIT, May 7, 2026); collected under a Federal Circuit stay until it expired July 24, 2026

The Supreme Court ruled IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, a taxing power reserved to Congress, terminating most of the 2025 tariff regime. Trump's Section 122 replacement tariffs were themselves struck down by the Court of International Trade in May 2026 but were collected under a Federal Circuit stay until they expired on July 24, 2026; refunds of the IEEPA duties to importers are under way.

  • The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs; IEEPA tariffs terminated February 24, 2026.
  • Approximately $166 billion was collected under the IEEPA tariffs (per Customs and Border Protection court disclosures); the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated up to roughly $175 billion in potential refunds with interest. CBP deployed Phase 1 of its CAPE refund functionality within ACE and began processing IEEPA refund claims in spring 2026.
  • Trump imposed a 10% global Section 122 tariff as a replacement effective February 24, 2026, with a statutory 150-day expiration (July 23-24, 2026).

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$100Bnow20352040
medium confidence$100.00B by 2035·$100.00B by 2040
The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford steaming through the Atlantic Ocean during a straits transit exercise
/Foreign Policy

Months-long US war with Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz

A war of more than three months and a 66-day naval blockade choked Hormuz shipping; a Harvard expert says it will cost over $1 trillion all-in.

66-day US naval blockade; 50,000+ troops; at least 13 US killed by mid-MayPentagon IG: $33.4B direct cost through June 30; Harvard's Bilmes says >$1 trillion all-inJ.P. Morgan warned gas could top $5/gal and put the consumer hit at ~$100B if sustained

After the 2025 nuclear strikes left an unresolved standoff, the US and Israel began striking Iran on February 28, 2026; Iranian attacks on shipping choked the Strait of Hormuz and the US escalated to a full naval blockade. At least 13 US service members had been killed by mid-May and dozens of US aircraft were damaged or destroyed; the Pentagon inspector general puts the cost through June 30 at $33.4 billion. A June 14 ceasefire followed, but fighting resumed in July.

  • US imposes a 66-day naval blockade of Iran (Apr 13 - Jun 18, 2026); more than 50,000 US troops stationed in the region
  • At least 13 US service members killed by mid-May and at least 42 US aircraft damaged or destroyed; CRS counted 18 killed and 824 wounded by Sept 15, 2026, including the resumed fighting
  • Pentagon reported ~$29B direct cost through mid-May; its inspector general later put the cost for Feb. 28 - June 30 at $33.4B ($22.3B in munitions), citing "strategic inventory shortfalls"; Harvard's Bilmes says the all-in cost will exceed $1 trillion

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$250Bnow20352040
medium confidence$150.00B by 2035·$250.00B by 2040
A gas station price sign displaying high unleaded and diesel fuel prices
/Economy & Trade

Iran-war oil shock has cost US drivers $100B+

Gas hit $4.56 in May, eased after the June ceasefire, then climbed back to $4.48 in September. Americans have paid over $100B extra for gasoline and diesel.

Gas $2.98 -> $4.56/gal (+53%), a 4-year high, Feb-May 2026Over $100B extra on gasoline and diesel, Feb 28 - Sept 7, 2026 (Brown Univ.)Gas $4.48 on Sept 24, a record for the season; diesel topped $6.50

When the 2026 Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz, US gasoline jumped from $2.98/gallon to a four-year high of $4.56 in May. Prices eased after the June ceasefire but climbed again when it collapsed in July, reaching $4.48 in late September. Brown University estimates Americans paid over $100 billion extra for gasoline and diesel through Labor Day; Moody's puts the total near $115 billion with jet fuel.

  • National average gas: $2.98/gal (Feb 26) -> $3.98 (Mar 26) -> $4.56 peak (May 21, +53%) -> $4.24 (Jun 4)
  • ~$1.12/gal average increment x ~375M gal/day x ~110 days = ~$46B in extra spending at the pump
  • J.P. Morgan (April 2026): the gasoline price increase, if it persisted for the rest of the year, would amount to around a $100B hit to consumers' purchasing power

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$115Bnow20352040
medium confidence$115.00B by 2035·$115.00B by 2040
A hand holding a pen fills out a paper absentee ballot for the 2008 U.S. general election.
/Civil Rights

An order to control who gets a mail ballot

EO 14399 orders federal citizen lists for every state and limits USPS ballot delivery; the Supreme Court let the lists proceed while parts of the Postal Service rule stay blocked.

Signed March 31, 2026Supreme Court lifted a 23-state injunction 6-3 on Aug 24, 2026Parts of the USPS ballot rule still blocked for 23 states and DC

On March 31, 2026, President Trump signed Executive Order 14399, 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,' directing DHS and the Social Security Administration to compile 'State Citizenship Lists' of adult citizens for each state, directing the Postal Service to transmit ballots only to people on state mail-in participation lists, and directing the Attorney General to prioritize prosecution of election officials who issue ballots to ineligible voters.

  • Order directs DHS to send every state a list of citizens aged 18 and over at least 60 days before each federal election and bars USPS from transmitting mail-in or absentee ballots for anyone not enrolled on a state-specific list
  • Nearly a third of all voters cast mail ballots in the 2024 general election, the population the mail provisions would affect
  • Supreme Court, 6-3, lifts a June injunction won by 23 states and DC, letting the citizenship-list, prosecution-priority and USPS-rule provisions proceed
President Trump sits at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office with lawmakers standing behind him at the signing of the Secure America Act.
/Immigration

A second $69.5B for immigration enforcement

Signed June 10, 2026, the Secure America Act adds ~$69.5B on top of the ~$170B in the 2025 megabill - nearly $240B in under a year.

$38.5B to ICE, $22.6B to CBP through FY2029Passed 52-47 (Senate) and 214-212 (House), party linesOn top of the ~$170B in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill

Trump signed the Secure America Act (S.2) into law on June 10, 2026, appropriating roughly $69.5 billion to ICE, CBP, and DHS through FY2029 via budget reconciliation, on top of the roughly $170 billion in enforcement funding in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill.

  • Senate passed S.2 52-47 (Murkowski the lone GOP no); House passed 214-212.
  • Trump signed the Secure America Act into law, appropriating ~$69.5B for ICE/CBP/DHS through FY2029.
  • ICE receives ~$38.5B and CBP ~$22.6B, funding detention and workforce expansion.

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$70Bnow20352040
medium confidence$69.50B by 2035·$69.50B by 2040
Elevated view of the Lyndon Baines Johnson Federal Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Education, in Washington, D.C.
/Civil Rights

Civil-rights enforcement, handed to the DOJ

The Education Department's Office for Civil Rights handed its investigative and enforcement work to the DOJ Civil Rights Division.

Title VI complaints now investigated by DOJOCR budget proposed down 35%, staff 530 to 271Traces to Project 2025

On June 16, 2026, the administration announced an interagency agreement transferring the Education Department Office for Civil Rights' investigative and enforcement functions to the DOJ Civil Rights Division, which will now 'evaluate, investigate and resolve' discrimination complaints against schools and universities.

  • OCR investigative and enforcement functions transferred to the DOJ Civil Rights Division
  • FY2027 proposal cuts OCR funding 35% and reduces staff from 530 to 271
Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula
/Foreign Policy

War ends in a memo pledging $300B to rebuild Iran

The administration says no US taxpayer money funds the $300B - regional partners would, with the mechanism unresolved.

MOU signed June 17, 2026 (Trump + Pezeshkian, Pakistan-mediated)Pledges a >=$300B Iran reconstruction plan 'with regional partners' - funding TBDCommits US to waivers for Iran's oil exports; frozen Iranian assets to be made available

The Islamabad Memorandum paused the war and reopened Hormuz, committing the US to help assemble a $300B reconstruction plan for Iran. Trump said there was 'no 300 Billion Dollar payment to Iran by the U.S.' and Vance said 'not a cent of American money' goes to Iran; the mechanism was left to a 60-day negotiation. The US committed to waivers for Iranian oil exports and to make Iran's frozen assets available. The ceasefire collapsed three weeks later.

  • MOU signed June 17, 2026 by Trump and Iran's President Pezeshkian, mediated by Pakistan
  • Commits the US to help develop a >=$300B Iran reconstruction plan 'with regional partners'; funding mechanism left to a 60-day window
  • Trump: 'There is no 300 Billion Dollar payment to Iran by the U.S.'; Vance: 'Not a cent of American money goes to Iran'
An oil pumpjack on a federal oil and gas lease managed by the Bureau of Land Management among dry golden hills in California.
/Environment & Energy

Cutting the safeguards on public-land drilling

Interior proposed slashing cleanup bonds, dropping pre-sale comment periods and cutting the protest window on federal leases from 30 days to 10.

Statewide cleanup bond would fall from $500,000 to $25,000Leasing preference criteria for parcels eliminatedBLM: lower bonds could delay orphaned-well cleanup

On June 23, 2026, the Interior Department proposed rewriting Bureau of Land Management rules to slash financial-assurance (bonding) requirements for oil and gas drillers on federal land, remove the two 30-day public participation periods before lease sales and cut the protest period from 30 days to 10, and eliminate the 2024 rule's leasing preference criteria for parcels.

  • Proposed rule would cut minimum cleanup bonds to $25,000 (statewide) and $10,000 (individual lease) from $500,000 and $150,000, and eliminate the 2024 rule's leasing preference criteria for parcels
  • Proposed rule would drop the two 30-day public participation periods (scoping and comment) before lease sales and cut the protest period from 30 days to 10
  • Published in the Federal Register with a 60-day comment period
The columned rotunda of the Federal Trade Commission Building (Apex Building) in Washington, D.C., under a cloud-streaked sky.
/Federal Government

Supreme Court ends FTC commissioners' removal protection

In Trump v. Slaughter, the Supreme Court overruled a 91-year-old precedent, letting the president fire FTC commissioners at will.

6-3 ruling overruled Humphrey's Executor (1935)FTC ruling puts NLRB, EEOC and similar protections in doubtA companion ruling spared the Federal Reserve

In Trump v. Slaughter, the Supreme Court on June 29, 2026 overruled Humphrey's Executor (1935), holding 6-3 that the FTC commissioners' for-cause removal protection is unconstitutional - leaving similar protections at other independent agencies in doubt. In a companion 5-4 decision (Trump v. Cook), the Court rejected the president's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for now, letting her keep serving while the litigation continues.

  • 6-3 ruling struck down the FTC commissioners' for-cause removal protection and overruled Humphrey's Executor (1935), leaving similar protections at other multimember commissions on uncertain footing
  • Companion 5-4 decision (Trump v. Cook) preserved an exception for the Federal Reserve's independence
  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook may keep her job pending resolution of lower-court litigation; Fed governors removable only for cause
The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Bulkeley fires a Tomahawk land-attack missile from its deck at sea.
/Foreign Policy

The ceasefire lasted three weeks

On July 8, 2026 Trump declared the June deal 'over' and the Iran war resumed - strikes, a blockade, and an oil spike.

Trump declared the ceasefire over July 8US reimposed the Strait of Hormuz blockadeBrent up ~$13 to almost $85 by July 16; at least 19 US troops killed in the war by Sept 24 (DoD)

Three weeks after signing a 60-day ceasefire memorandum with Iran, the Trump administration declared the deal 'over' on July 8, 2026 and resumed strikes, sliding back into open conflict over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • US rescinded Iran's oil-sales license (July 7) and reinstated the naval blockade of Iran (July 14)
  • Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' at the NATO summit; US launched a second strike round of about 90 targets
  • Iran fired missiles at US allies including Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan, where the government said its air defenses intercepted them
Granite "Sounding Stones" sculptures on the plaza outside the Daniel Patrick Moynihan U.S. Courthouse in Manhattan, with the courthouse facade behind.
/Media & Institutions

Federal agents at reporters' front doors

The DOJ subpoenaed four New York Times journalists in a leak probe over Air Force One reporting; some were served at home.

Four NYT reporters subpoenaed to a grand juryLeak probe over Qatari-jet security reportingThe Times moved to quash; CPJ called it an 'escalation'

On July 10, 2026, the Justice Department, through Southern District of New York US Attorney Jay Clayton, subpoenaed four New York Times reporters to testify before a Manhattan federal grand jury, with some subpoenas hand-delivered to their homes by federal agents. The subpoenas targeted the reporters' coverage of Trump switching aircraft on his return from the July 2026 NATO summit amid security concerns about a Qatari-donated Air Force One.

  • Four NYT reporters (Schmitt, Pager, Lipton, Barnes) subpoenaed to a Manhattan grand jury; some served at home by federal agents
  • The New York Times moved to quash the subpoenas and refused to let reporters testify
  • CPJ called the subpoenas an 'extraordinary escalation' with a 'chilling effect'; the Reporters Committee and Senator Schumer also condemned them
Building 1 on the St. Elizabeths campus in Washington, D.C., the executive offices of Department of Homeland Security headquarters.
/Civil Rights

Counterterror grants tied to election changes

DHS withheld 20% of homeland-security grants until states adopted its election rules, including SAVE citizenship checks; a judge ruled the withholding unauthorized.

20% of Homeland Security Grant awards withheld25 states and DC sued July 23, 2026Judge Amir Ali blocked withholding Sept 28, 2026

On July 10, 2026, DHS announced that 20% of each recipient's Homeland Security Grant Program award - part of more than $1 billion in funding - would be withheld until recipients adopted federally specified election measures, including a transition to hand-marked paper ballots, manual audits and citizenship checks of voters and poll workers through the SAVE system.

  • DHS withholds 20% of Homeland Security Grant Program awards (part of more than $1 billion) pending election-security compliance, including SAVE citizenship checks
  • 25 states and DC sue FEMA and DHS; about $148 million of plaintiff states' awards at stake
  • Judge Amir Ali rules FEMA cannot withhold counterterrorism grants over the election conditions
The CDC sign in front of a glass office tower on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Roybal campus in Atlanta.
/Health & Science

The CDC's global HIV awards, set to lapse

As the State Department takes more control of PEPFAR, ~120 CDC HIV awards serving a reported 8.7M+ patients were set to expire in September 2026.

State Department takes more control of PEPFAR~120 cooperative agreements set to expirePuts US global disease-surveillance capacity at risk

As CNN reported on July 10, 2026, 120 CDC funding awards for HIV/AIDS work under PEPFAR were set to expire in September 2026 with no concrete replacement system in place, as a new plan moves much more control of US global HIV programs to the State Department. A State Department spokesperson said it expects CDC overseas operating funding to increase and that the CDC remains 'the preferred provider for all technical services to recipient countries.'

  • A new plan moves much more control of US global HIV programs to the State Department; the State Department said the CDC remains 'the preferred provider for all technical services to recipient countries'
  • About 120 CDC HIV cooperative agreements (serving 8.7 million-plus patients) set to expire
Desert scrub and red-rock mesas stretching toward distant mountains in Bears Ears National Monument, Utah.
/Environment & Energy

Three million acres, un-protected

Trump shrank Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante by more than 90% and disbanded tribal co-management.

Bears Ears cut 1.36M to ~121,000 acresGrand Staircase cut 1.9M to ~182,000 acresOpens the removed land to mining and extraction

On July 13, 2026, Trump signed proclamations shrinking Utah's Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments by nearly 3 million acres combined. Bears Ears was cut from 1.36 million to roughly 121,000 acres and Grand Staircase-Escalante from about 1.9 million to roughly 182,000 acres - reductions exceeding 90%. The proclamations disband the tribal Bears Ears Commission co-management structure and open removed lands to mining and extraction.

  • Bears Ears cut to ~121,000 acres (from 1.36M); Grand Staircase-Escalante cut to ~182,000 acres (from 1.9M) - ~3M acres total removed
  • Proclamation disbands the five-tribe Bears Ears Commission co-management structure
  • The Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance said it would challenge the reductions in federal court
District of Columbia National Guard soldiers on a dismounted patrol crossing a street near the Washington Monument, August 2025.
/Federal Government

Troops in the capital, through the whole term

The DC National Guard deployment was extended to January 2029 and peaked at ~5,000 troops in a summer 2026 surge, despite studies finding little effect on violent crime.

Extended to Jan 20, 2029 'or until terminated'Summer 2026 peak of ~5,000 troops from 20-plus states; ~4,000 by AugustTwo studies found little to no effect on violent crime

In mid-July 2026, the administration extended Trump's National Guard deployment in Washington, DC through January 20, 2029 (the end of his term) 'or until terminated by the President,' and the force nearly doubled to about 5,000 troops from more than 20 states. The deployment, begun under an August 2025 crime-emergency executive order, has drawn criticism as unnecessary; two studies found the troop presence had little to no effect on violent crime.

  • DC National Guard deployment extended to January 20, 2029, 'or until terminated by the President'
  • Force nearly doubled to ~5,000 troops from 20-plus states in a 'summer surge' announced in May 2026
  • Two studies found the Guard presence had little to no effect on violent crime

Projected cumulative cost to Americans if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate.

$1Bnow20352040
medium confidence$1.43B by 2035·$1.43B by 2040
FCC Chairman Brendan Carr speaking at an FCC advisory committee meeting in September 2025.
/Media & Institutions

Clearing the way for national TV consolidation

FCC Chair Carr moved to scrap the 39% national ownership cap - which Commissioner Gomez said only Congress can change - and the FCC repealed it 2-1 on August 6, 2026.

Replaced the 39% cap with case-by-case review (Aug. 6, 2026 vote)Commissioner Gomez: only Congress can change itGomez: a hand-off to "billionaire buddies of this administration"

On July 15, 2026, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr circulated a draft order to eliminate the national television ownership cap - which bars a single owner from reaching more than 39% of US TV households - and replace it with case-by-case review of transactions. The FCC voted 2-1 on August 6, 2026 to repeal the cap; Democratic Commissioner Anna Gomez said the cap is set in federal statute and only Congress can change it.

  • FCC scheduled an August 6, 2026 vote to replace the 39% national ownership cap with case-by-case review
  • Commissioner Anna Gomez said only Congress, which set the cap in statute, can change it - signaling likely legal challenge
  • NAB applauded the move; DirecTV warned that broadcaster consolidation leads to higher prices for consumers
President Trump meets Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, with U.S. and Brazilian flags behind them, in Kuala Lumpur in October 2025.
/Economy & Trade

A 25% tariff on Brazil, round two

After the Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA tariffs, Trump hit Brazil again under Section 301, effective July 22.

25% on most Brazilian goods; coffee, beef, OJ exempt~$40B/yr of imports affected before carve-outsLula condemned it and vowed WTO retaliation

On July 15, 2026, the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective July 22, 2026, after a USTR determination that Brazil's digital-trade, electronic-payments, ethanol, IP and deforestation policies are 'unreasonable' and burden US commerce. It exempts coffee, beef, orange juice, some energy products and aircraft parts.

  • 25% Section 301 tariff on most Brazilian goods announced July 15, 2026, effective July 22, 2026
  • USTR Section 301 determination on Brazil's digital-trade, ethanol, IP and deforestation policies
  • Exemptions for coffee, beef, orange juice, some energy products and aircraft parts
Armed ICE tactical officers advance alongside an armored vehicle on a residential street during an enforcement operation in Los Angeles, June 2025.
/Immigration

Two killed, then the President overruled the safety pause

After ICE fatally shot two men during traffic stops, DHS paused the tactic - Trump reversed it within a day.

ICE killed men in Biddeford, ME and Houston, TXDHS ordered a nationwide vehicle-stop pause July 14Trump reversed it on Truth Social July 15

After ICE officers fatally shot two men during attempted vehicle stops in Maine and Texas, DHS ordered a nationwide pause on most ICE vehicle stops; within roughly a day President Trump publicly overturned the pause and directed ICE to keep conducting traffic stops.

  • ICE officer fatally shot Johan Sebastian Duran Guerrero, 26, a Colombian national, in Biddeford, Maine during an attempted vehicle stop.
  • DHS ordered a nationwide pause on most ICE vehicle stops.
  • Trump publicly overrode the pause on Truth Social and directed ICE to continue traffic stops.
Delegates seated in a State Department hall lined with national flags as Secretary Marco Rubio opens the Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism, July 16, 2026.
/Civil Rights

Turning 'far-left' into a terrorism designation

Rubio convened ~65 nations and rolled out visa bans targeting 'far-left' groups, as Treasury pledged to scrutinize nonprofits' funding.

State Dept visa restrictions on 'aligned groups'~65-nation ministerial on 'political terrorism'ACLU: designations could target lawful protest

On July 16, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened a 'Ministerial on the Resurgence of Political Terrorism' with representatives of roughly 65 countries and announced a new State Department visa-restriction policy targeting members of 'far-left terrorist and other aligned groups,' escalating the administration's earlier domestic antifa designation into a global immigration-enforcement and financial-pressure campaign against left-leaning movements.

  • State Department announces visa restrictions targeting 'far-left terrorist and aligned groups'
  • Rubio convenes ~65-nation ministerial on 'political terrorism'; the State Department says additional designations of far-left groups are under review
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent says Treasury is expanding efforts to identify organizations that abuse charitable and nonprofit structures 'as vehicles for illicit finance' and is examining where tax-exempt status has been exploited
President Trump delivers his July 16, 2026 address to the nation from a lectern in the White House East Room before a seated audience.
/Rule of Law

Trump declassifies election intel in a primetime address

Trump declassified election documents, directed DOJ and intelligence agencies to investigate how intelligence was withheld, and pushed the 'SAVE America Act.'

White House said China had compromised US voter dataDirected DOJ, FBI, CIA and DNI to investigate, 'including potential criminal charges'Officials say no votes or totals were changed

In a July 16, 2026 primetime address to the nation, Trump said he was releasing previously classified documents related to the 2020 and 2018 elections, alleging Chinese election interference and a cover-up by U.S. intelligence officials. The White House said he directed the Director of National Intelligence, the Justice Department, the FBI and the CIA to investigate how the intelligence was withheld and to hold those responsible accountable, 'including potential criminal charges.' The White House also cited a DHS review it said found about 278,000 noncitizens registered to vote in four states that shared voter files and said China had compromised U.S. voter data, and Trump urged Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, a strict voter ID bill.

  • Trump declassified and released intelligence documents alleging election fraud and Chinese interference in a July 16 primetime address
  • Directed the Director of National Intelligence, the Justice Department, the FBI and the CIA to investigate how the intelligence was withheld and to hold those responsible accountable, 'including potential criminal charges,' according to the White House
  • Officials from both administrations said no intelligence shows votes or totals were changed; the cited vulnerabilities are years old and addressed
An American curtained voting booth with a lever voting machine inside.
/Civil Rights

A federal push for one national voter file

DHS threatened prison for election officials who 'choose not to participate' as DOJ sued 30 states and D.C. for voter rolls for a federal citizenship check.

DOJ sued 30 states and D.C. for voter dataSixth Circuit ruled for Michigan June 24, 2026About 20% of flagged Texas voters proved to be citizens

On July 17, 2026, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin claimed more than 250,000 noncitizens were on four states' voter rolls and threatened prison time for state election officials who 'choose not to participate in securing the elections,' escalating a year-long DOJ campaign to assemble a national voter-data system - even as the Sixth Circuit ruled against the administration on June 24, 2026.

  • Sixth Circuit rules the DOJ cannot compel Michigan's unredacted voter roll
  • DHS Secretary Mullin threatens prison time for state election officials who 'choose not to participate in securing the elections'
  • Mullin claims more than 250,000 noncitizen registrations in four states (California, New Jersey, Nevada, Pennsylvania) without disclosing methodology
Aerial view of the Blue Water Bridge between Port Huron, Michigan, and Point Edward, Ontario, with trucks and cars queued at the U.S. port of entry.
/Economy & Trade

A 1930 law revived for 50% tariffs on Canada

The first tariffs expressly imposed under Section 338 put 50% duties on Canadian goods, with no USMCA exemption, and Canada hit back on US$20 billion of US exports.

50% duty in effect Aug. 22, 2026Canada retaliates on US$20B of US goodsImport bans on some goods from Sept. 29

On July 20, 2026, President Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods, citing Canadian discrimination against US alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor vehicles. It is the first time a president has expressly cited Section 338 to impose tariffs. The tariffs took effect August 22, 2026, and Canada retaliated on C$27.6 billion (US$20 billion) of US goods from September 8.

  • Three Section 338 proclamations signed July 20, 2026 impose 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods; the first time a president has expressly cited Section 338 to impose tariffs
  • The tariffs were suspended on August 18 until August 22, citing progress in negotiations, then took effect August 22, 2026 after the two sides did not reach agreement
  • Canada announced counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on C$27.6 billion (US$20 billion) of US goods effective September 8, 2026, plus a C$7.5 billion support package for affected Canadian workers and firms
Leather gloves from a shipment detained by U.S. Customs and Border Protection at the Los Angeles/Long Beach seaport on suspicion of being made with forced labor.
/Economy & Trade

Forced-labor tariffs replace the expired global surcharge

As the Section 122 surcharge expired, 10-12.5% forced-labor tariffs took effect on 60 economies that supply 99.4% of US imports.

60 economies supplying 99.4% of US imports$805.6B in 10-yr duties before offsets (Tax Foundation est.)Sued by importers and 25 states

On July 23, 2026, President Trump directed Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on 60 trading partners, citing each economy's failure to ban or effectively enforce a ban on imports made with forced labor. The tariffs took effect July 24, 2026, the day the temporary 10% Section 122 global surcharge expired. USTR says the 60 economies account for 99.4% of US imports.

  • 10% or 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on goods from 60 economies (which USTR says supply 99.4% of US imports) took effect 12:01 a.m. July 24, 2026, replacing the expired Section 122 surcharge
  • Yale Budget Lab: average statutory tariff rate at 11.0% after the Section 122-to-Section 301 switch; current-law tariffs cost about $1,100 per household annually and raise about $1.9 trillion over 10 years
  • Tax Foundation: the forced-labor tariffs will collect $805.6 billion in direct customs duties over 2026-2035 before income- and payroll-tax offsets ($571.6 billion in net revenue on a conventional basis), and will reduce long-run GDP 0.1% and hours worked by the equivalent of 123,000 full-time jobs
Aerial view of the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History on the National Mall, with Federal Triangle buildings behind it.
/Media & Institutions

Federal warning signs outside the Smithsonian

EO 14416 orders Park Service signs disputing the American History museum and directs agencies to use 'any and all available authorities' against what it calls ideological capture there.

EO 14416 signed July 24, 2026About a dozen signs at ~$7,000 eachNMAAHC: 'We have not changed any exhibitions'

On July 24, 2026, President Trump signed Executive Order 14416, 'Restoring Trust in the Smithsonian Institution,' directing the Interior Secretary, OMB, GSA and the Domestic Policy Council to use 'any and all available authorities' against what a White House report called 'ideological capture' at the National Museum of American History, and ordering the National Park Service to post signs on public walkways telling visitors of the report's findings.

  • EO 14416 orders NPS signage on walkways to the National Museum of American History and directs Interior, OMB and GSA to use 'any and all available authorities'
  • Interior Department letter to senators says Smithsonian leadership uses the museum 'as a tool to advance personal, radical ideologies'
  • Signs estimated at $7,000 each, about $84,000 total (about a dozen signs)
Empty cubicles and desk chairs in an Office of Personnel Management office suite, photographed in 2006.
/Federal Government

OPM becomes the judge of federal layoff appeals

New rules move layoff, suitability and probationary appeals from the independent MSPB into OPM, with no court review of RIF appeal decisions.

Effective Sept. 2, 2026 for RIF notices issued from that date99% of 1,252 public comments opposed the RIF-appeals ruleRecent performance reviews now outweigh tenure in layoff retention

On August 3, 2026, the Office of Personnel Management published final rules, effective September 2, that replace the independent Merit Systems Protection Board with OPM as the forum for appeals of reduction-in-force (RIF) separations, demotions and furloughs of more than 30 days, and shift suitability and probationary-period appeals to OPM. A companion rule makes recent performance reviews, rather than tenure, the center of RIF retention decisions.

  • RIF appeals move from MSPB to an OPM-administered, record-based process for RIF notices issued on or after Sept. 2, 2026; the final rule retains a no-judicial-review provision and bars RIF challenges through grievance arbitration
  • OPM received 1,252 public comments on the RIF-appeals rule; 99 percent opposed it
  • Four rules finalized together also shift suitability and probationary-period appeals to OPM and make recent performance reviews outweigh tenure in RIF retention
The handwritten enrolled joint resolution of the Fourteenth Amendment at the National Archives, showing Article XIV, Section 1 on birthright citizenship.
/Immigration

A second try at birthright limits, five weeks later

After losing at the Supreme Court, Trump signed a narrower order denying citizenship to some US-born children, and a judge blocked it.

Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against EO 14160 on June 30, 2026New orders signed August 6, 2026Blocked September 2 as 'almost certainly unconstitutional'

On August 6, 2026, President Trump signed two executive orders: one identifying categories of US-born children of noncitizens the administration says are not entitled to birthright citizenship, and one directing the Secretaries of State and Homeland Security to halt 'birth tourism.' A federal judge preliminarily blocked the citizenship order on September 2, 2026.

  • Two executive orders signed August 6, 2026: one identifying categories of US-born children deemed not entitled to birthright citizenship, and one directing the Secretaries of State and Homeland Security to halt 'birth tourism.'
  • Trump said 'hundreds of thousands' engage in birth tourism without offering data; CDC data show nearly 9,600 children born in 2024 to foreign mothers with an official address outside the US (TIME: fewer than 10,000 such births in 2024, against an estimated 3.6 million total US births in 2025).
  • Judge Deborah Boardman preliminarily enjoined the citizenship order on September 2, 2026 for a certified class, calling it 'almost certainly unconstitutional'; Attorney General Todd Blanche said 'if we have to go back to the Supreme Court, we will.'
President Trump holds up the signed executive order on childhood vaccines at the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office on August 10, 2026.
/Health & Science

Order trims universal child vaccines to 11 diseases

An August 2026 executive order re-asserts schedule cuts a federal judge had blocked and calls for splitting the MMR shot into three.

Universal list cut to 11 diseases from 18Hep B, rotavirus, flu, COVID moved to high-risk or shared decisionCDC schedule cuts still blocked by March injunction

On August 10, 2026, President Trump signed an executive order establishing 'Gold Standard Childhood Vaccine Recommendations' that recommend routine immunization of all children against 11 diseases, down from 18 under the CDC's recommendations, shift the rest to high-risk or shared clinical decision-making categories, and call for splitting the combined MMR shot into three single-disease shots.

  • Universal childhood vaccine recommendations cut to 11 diseases from 18; hepatitis A and B, rotavirus, meningococcal disease, flu and COVID-19 moved to high-risk or shared decision-making
  • Order calls for separating the combined MMR vaccine into three single-disease shots and gives an HHS task force 90 days to plan single-vaccine options
  • DOJ directed to support legal challenges to state vaccine laws on grounds including parental authority and religious freedom; states advised to review school-entry requirements
The south front of the U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C., with the statue of Alexander Hamilton in the foreground.
/Rule of Law

The president's family crypto firm gets a bank charter nod

A federal regulator conditionally approved a trust bank for World Liberty, 38% owned by an entity affiliated with Trump and his family, to issue its USD1 stablecoin.

OCC conditional approval Aug. 14, 202638% owned by a Trump-family-affiliated entityCEO: over $4B of USD1 in circulation

On August 14, 2026, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gave preliminary conditional approval for a national trust bank charter to World Liberty Trust Co. The company is sponsored by World Liberty Financial, which says an entity affiliated with Donald J. Trump and family members owns 38% of it. The charter would let the firm issue and manage its USD1 stablecoin itself instead of through a third party.

  • OCC granted World Liberty Trust Co. preliminary conditional approval for a national trust bank charter to issue its USD1 stablecoin directly
  • World Liberty Financial says an entity affiliated with Donald J. Trump and family members owns 38% of the company
  • Financial disclosures show the president made at least $1.4 billion on crypto ventures in 2025
A Homeland Security Investigations special agent badge and credential case set in front of an American flag.
/Civil Rights

Federal investigators sent to probe voting before midterms

ICE's investigative arm launched a nine-state 'voter fraud surge' of field interviews through mid-October, including checks on naturalized citizens' voting histories.

Nine states, early September to mid-October 2026DHS seeks up to $5M contract for voter filesNevada claim cut from ~16,000 to 185

Beginning September 1, 2026, Homeland Security Investigations, an ICE component, launched what internal guidance called a 'coordinated criminal voter fraud surge initiative' in nine states - California, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin - running through mid-October, ahead of the November midterms, according to CNN.

  • HSI surge runs from early September through mid-October in nine states: CA, CT, GA, MO, NV, NY, PA, WA and WI, according to CNN
  • DHS seeks a contract worth up to $5 million to acquire voter registration and voter history files for HSI analytics
  • DHS had cut its Nevada figure from close to 16,000 potential noncitizens on the voter list to 185 it said it was confident about; senators, citing The New York Times, say a Nevada review found all 185 were U.S. citizens
A U.S. Army Patriot launcher fires a PAC-2 interceptor missile during a 2025 live-fire exercise in Palau.
/Foreign Policy

Iran war drains arsenal; allies told to wait years

After the war drew down large shares of US missile stocks, allies were warned that key weapons deliveries could slip by up to five years.

Pentagon IG: $22.3B of munitions spent Feb 28 - June 30~36% of pre-war Patriot interceptors left (CSIS estimate)Allies warned of delays of up to 5 years

After the Iran war used up large shares of US missile and interceptor stocks, the US warned allies to expect delays of up to five years on deliveries of key weapons while it rebuilds its own inventories, Bloomberg reported on September 18, 2026.

  • Pentagon inspector general: Operation Epic Fury cost an estimated $33.4B (Feb 28 - June 30, 2026), $22.3B of it munitions, producing 'strategic inventory shortfalls' and industrial-base bottlenecks
  • About 36% of the pre-Iran-war Patriot interceptor inventory remained (CSIS estimate); Japan, which bought 400 Tomahawks, was told it is 'being pushed back in the queue', and new Japanese and Dutch orders could face delays
  • US warned allies to expect delays of up to five years on key weapons; Raytheon may not be able to fill Germany's Tomahawk/Typhon request within five years
The Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. U.S. Courthouse, the main federal courthouse of the Southern District of Florida, in downtown Miami.
/Rule of Law

A grand jury aimed at the president's investigators

DOJ's Florida 'grand conspiracy' probe kept subpoenaing ex-officials like John Brennan even as its lead prosecutor, Trump ally Joe diGenova, quit with no charges.

Career prosecutor who raised evidence concerns was replacedNo charges despite dozens of subpoenasBrennan told to appear before grand jury Oct 15

A Justice Department 'grand conspiracy' investigation in the Southern District of Florida, examining whether officials who investigated Trump since 2016 conspired against him, kept issuing grand jury subpoenas in September 2026 even as its lead prosecutor, Trump ally Joe diGenova, resigned on September 10 without having charged anyone. Former CIA Director John Brennan was subpoenaed to appear before the Fort Pierce grand jury in October.

  • Career prosecutor Maria Medetis Long, who had raised concerns about the strength of the evidence, was replaced by Trump ally Joe diGenova, appointed in April 2026.
  • The probe produced no criminal prosecutions despite dozens of subpoenas issued over the past year to officials involved in past investigations of Trump, according to ABC News.
  • diGenova resigned on September 10, 2026 after Justice Department officials reportedly lost confidence in his leadership; the department thanked him for 'his many years of service.'
Aerial view of the coal-fired Columbia Energy Center near Portage, Wisconsin, with plumes rising from its stacks.
/Environment & Energy

EPA scraps carbon limits on power plants

A September 2026 rule repeals most of the 2024 carbon standards for coal and gas plants, and a companion proposal would end federal power-plant climate rules entirely.

Existing coal plants lose their federal carbon limitsEPA's 2024 analysis: $370B in net benefits over 2024-2047Health groups sued in the D.C. Circuit three days later

On September 14, 2026, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin signed a final rule repealing the majority of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants, including the emission guidelines for existing steam units, and proposed rescinding the remaining power-sector greenhouse gas standards. EPA projected $310 billion in savings; health and environmental groups sued in the D.C. Circuit on September 17.

  • Final rule repeals the emission guidelines for existing fossil fuel-fired steam units, carbon-capture standards for modified coal units, and Phase 2 carbon-capture standards for new base-load gas turbines; effective November 16, 2026
  • EPA projects $310 billion in savings from the repeal and a more than tenfold increase in coal production for power-sector use
  • Supplemental proposal would rescind EPA's greenhouse gas findings for fossil fuel-fired power plants and repeal all remaining power-plant greenhouse gas standards; comments due November 2, 2026
The Eisenhower Executive Office Building, home of the White House Office of Management and Budget, in Washington, D.C.
/Federal Government

$810 million canceled without a vote

Five days before the fiscal year ended, the White House used a pocket rescission - a tactic GAO calls illegal - to let bipartisan funding lapse.

11 rescissions totaling $810 million sent Sept. 25, 2026$567.4 million cut from HHS refugee and entrant assistanceGOP Appropriations Chair Collins called it 'unlawful'

On September 25, 2026, five days before the fiscal year ended, President Trump sent Congress 11 proposed rescissions totaling $810 million under the Impoundment Control Act. Because the funds expire on September 30, before Congress's 45-day review window can run, the 'pocket rescission' lets the money lapse without a vote - a tactic the Government Accountability Office has said is illegal.

  • 11 rescissions totaling $810 million sent to Congress on Sept. 25, 2026, covering Commerce, Education, HHS, DHS, HUD, Justice and International Assistance Programs
  • Largest cut: $567.4 million from HHS Refugee and Entrant Assistance; also $56.1 million in HUD housing counseling and $27.7 million from AHRQ
  • Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins called the move 'unlawful' and 'a usurpation of Congress's appropriations powers'; GAO has said pocket rescissions are illegal
Events are still unfolding; details may change

Forecast · 2026 → 2040

What it’s projected to cost

Every documented action with a credible cost projection, added up: the cumulative burden on Americans over the next decade: direct federal costs plus the broader economic toll. Conservative, lower-bound estimates from the same cited sources.

$0M

projected cost to Americans by 2035

rising to $7.7T by 2040

$7.7Tnow20352040
20 low at 25% · 23 medium at 75%

Based on 45 of 193 documented actions with a cost projection; the remaining 148 are not yet projected and count as $0 here (20 low, 23 medium, 2 high confidence). “Cost to Americans” counts direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden; policies that net federal revenue or savings are never counted as a saving to households. Projections are weighted by certainty: high-confidence at full weight, the 23 medium at 75%, and the 20 low at 25% (use the toggle above to count every projection in full). Figures are conservative lower bounds, overlap across related actions, and should be read as order-of-magnitude.