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The Cost
/Immigration

ICE arrests surge; 290,000 removed

Most people in ICE detention in November 2025 had no criminal conviction; removals ran only 7% above FY 2024.

StatusOngoingImpactSevere · 4/5Sources6UpdatedSep 29, 2026

Key facts

  • 821 arrests/day average, Jan-Oct 2025
  • 290,603 total removals through Nov 2025
  • 73.6% of Nov 2025 detainees had no criminal convictions

Summary

Following Trump's inauguration, ICE shifted to large-scale interior enforcement, averaging 821 arrests per day over the first ten months of 2025 and about 1,100 per day by late 2025, according to government data reported by The Independent. Over 290,000 removals were recorded through November 15, 2025. The administration's stated goal of 3,000 arrests per day was not met.

What happened

ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations shifted resources to interior community arrests. Over the first ten months of 2025, the daily arrest average was 821. Total removals from inauguration through November 15, 2025, reached 290,603 - only 7% more than FY 2024 despite vastly greater resource expenditure. The administration set a daily target of 3,000 arrests but consistently fell short.

Impact on the United States

Pew Research found 43% of Hispanic adults worried about being asked to prove immigration status in daily life (up from 31% in March 2025). The surge targeted people with no criminal convictions: 73.6% of detainees held as of November 16, 2025, had no criminal conviction. Children in ICE detention rose from approximately 25/day (Biden's last 16 months) to approximately 170/day.

Documented effects

  1. Daily average ICE arrest rate: 821/day (Jan 20-Oct 15, 2025); 290,603 total removals through November 15, 2025.[1][6]
  2. 73.6% of 65,135 detainees held November 16, 2025, had no criminal convictions; 96.9% of the surge in detentions during one government-shutdown period had no criminal history.[1]
  3. Pew Research (November 2025): 43% of Hispanic adults worried about proving status in daily life, up from 31% in March 2025; 19% changed daily routines due to fear.[2]
  4. ICE arrested 49,571 people in July 2026, the highest monthly total of the second term, up 15% from June (43,021) and 70% from February (29,241); Texas and Florida accounted for nearly 20,000 of them (Deportation Data Project data analyzed by the AP).[4]
  5. More than 46,000 people were booked into ICE detention in July 2026, and about 68,000 were in ICE custody at the start of August, according to internal DHS figures obtained by CBS News.[5]

Projected cost to Americans

Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (low confidence).

$217Mnow20352040
So far
$217M
By 2035
$217M
By 2040
$217M

How this is calculated: To book each dollar once, this event now carries only the incremental ICE detention cost of the pre-OBBBA surge (Jan 20 - Jul 3, 2025), paid from base funds. From July 4, 2025 the expansion is financed by the reconciliation law's $45B detention and $29.9B ICE money, booked from CBO's outlay estimate under ice-detention-expansion-bbba, and the 2026 supplemental is booked under secure-america-act-funding; projecting a separate flat run-rate here (the earlier $5.8B/yr x 10 = $58B) double-counted that funding and had no source. 10yr = 15yr = the booked amount. Layer 2 = 0: the earlier ~$120B was an unsourced "small fraction" of Penn Wharton's -3.3% GDP result, which models removing 10% of 11M unauthorized immigrants every year for 10 years [S5]; actual removals (290,603 from Jan 26 to Nov 15, 2025 [S1]) are far below that pace, so the scenario cannot be applied directly. Deportation's broader economic cost is not monetized (see decisions).

Why this is rated severe

An arrest surge that reached about 50,000 a month by July 2026, 290,000+ removals by November 2025 and detention mostly of people without criminal convictions (73.6% in November 2025) caused large-scale community harm; 43% of Hispanic adults told Pew they worried about being asked to prove their status.

ICE arrested 49,571 people in July 2026, the highest monthly total of the second term

Corrections & updates [9]

Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.

  1. UpdatedFigure

    Updated: ICE arrested 49,571 people in July 2026, the highest monthly total of Trump's second term (ICE data analyzed by the Associated Press), and more than 46,000 people were booked into ICE detention that month (CBS News).[4][5]

    Previously
    ongoing
    Now
    ongoing (ICE arrested 49,571 people in July 2026, the highest monthly total of the second term)
  2. CorrectedSource

    Corrected: Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan research organization, not a news outlet, so its source label was changed from Tier 2 to Tier 3.

  3. CorrectedSource

    The American Immigration Council link now serves an April 17, 2026 article. It does not contain the 821-arrests-per-day figure it was cited for and is an advocacy source. It has been replaced by The Independent (December 4, 2025), which reports ICE averaged 821 arrests a day in the first ten months of the year against a 3,000-a-day goal. Also added: the Marshall Project analysis behind the children-in-detention figures (about 25 a day under Biden versus about 170 a day under Trump).[6][7]

  4. CorrectedSource

    Source date corrected. The TRAC report "Taking Stock" was published November 24, 2025, not November 1.[1]

  5. CorrectedFigures

    Removed figures no cited source supports: a 600% rise in at-large arrests, an eleven-fold rise in street arrests, 104 additional detention facilities (a 91% increase), a UCLA finding that Latinos were 9 in 10 arrests, and 'record' removals (TRAC's data show removals only 7% above FY 2024). The 821-a-day average is reported by The Independent for the first ten months of 2025, not a specific Jan. 20-Oct. 15 window. TRAC reports 73.6% of detainees had no criminal conviction (not 'no criminal history').[1][6][2][4]

  6. ClarifiedSource tier

    The Marshall Project is a national nonprofit newsroom, which this site's sourcing standard classes as Tier 2; its label is corrected from Tier 3.[7]

  7. CorrectedSeverity rationale

    The rationale cited 'documented due-process concerns' not described in the entry; it now states the documented figures. Severity unchanged.[1][2][4]

    + Show previous and current text
    Previously
    An arrest surge that reached about 50,000 a month by July 2026, 290,000+ removals by November 2025 and detention mostly of people without criminal convictions caused large-scale community harm and documented due-process concerns.
    Now
    An arrest surge that reached about 50,000 a month by July 2026, 290,000+ removals by November 2025 and detention mostly of people without criminal convictions (73.6% in November 2025) caused large-scale community harm; 43% of Hispanic adults told Pew they worried about being asked to prove their status.
  8. ClarifiedDisplay copy

    The record gives a November 2025 snapshot, not a trend; 'increasingly' was removed.

    Previously
    Interior enforcement increasingly detained people with no criminal convictions; removals ran only 7% above FY 2024.
    Now
    Most people in ICE detention in November 2025 had no criminal conviction; removals ran only 7% above FY 2024.
  9. CorrectedCost estimate

    The earlier figures rested on a miscomputed formula, a detention rate not in the cited source, and an unsourced removal-savings credit, and the booked fields contradicted the basis. The 10-year figure also double-counted spending funded by the 2025 reconciliation law, which is booked elsewhere. This event now carries only the sourced incremental detention cost of the surge before that law (Jan-Jul 2025). The unsourced $120B broader-economy share is removed.

    Previously
    net $5.8B so far; 10yr $58B; 15yr $92B; broader $120B
    Now
    net $0.22B so far; 10yr $0.22B; 15yr $0.22B; broader $0

Sources [6]

Image: Tia Dufour / DHS, Public domain (Wikimedia Commons)

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