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The Cost
/Federal Government

Student loans overhauled; Grad PLUS ended

New borrowing caps and a single repayment plan cut federal spending by ~$284B (CBO) by shifting costs onto borrowers.

StatusIn effectImpactSignificant · 3/5Sources3CorrectedSep 29, 2026

Key facts

  • ~$284B cut over 2025-2034 (CBO, education title)
  • Grad PLUS eliminated; SAVE/PAYE/ICR sunset
  • $257,500 lifetime borrowing cap; effective July 1, 2026

Summary

H.R. 1 eliminated Grad PLUS loans, replaced existing income-driven repayment plans with a single Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP), and imposed new lifetime borrowing caps - with CBO estimating that the law's education title, mostly these loan changes, cuts federal direct spending by about $284 billion over 2025-2034 - while narrowing access to graduate and professional education and raising payments for many borrowers.

What happened

Effective July 1, 2026, the law ends Grad PLUS loans, sunsets the SAVE, PAYE, and ICR repayment plans (current borrowers moved off by 2028), creates the income-based Repayment Assistance Plan, and caps a student's lifetime federal borrowing at $257,500 (Parent PLUS loans are capped separately at $20,000 a year and $65,000 in total per dependent student). CBO estimated that the law's education title (Title VIII) reduces federal direct spending by about $284 billion over 2025-2034, mostly from the loan-repayment and borrowing-limit changes; the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has cited roughly $315 billion in student-loan savings projected at passage.

Impact on the United States

The new caps and the loss of Grad PLUS limit financing for medical, law, and graduate students, while the RAP raises monthly payments for many low-income borrowers compared with the SAVE plan it replaces. The federal saving CBO estimated is achieved by shifting more education costs onto borrowers.

Documented effects

  1. CBO estimated the law's education title (Title VIII) reduces federal direct spending by about $284.0 billion over 2025-2034; the loan-repayment changes account for about $269.1 billion and the new loan limits about $44.2 billion, partly offset by Pell Grant changes and interactions.[2]
  2. Grad PLUS loans end and the SAVE/PAYE/ICR repayment plans sunset (borrowers moved to the new Repayment Assistance Plan by 2028), effective July 1, 2026, with a new $257,500 lifetime borrowing cap.[2][3]

Projected cost to Americans

Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (medium confidence).

$0now20352040
So far
$0
By 2035
$0
By 2040
$0

How this is calculated: Marks the bill's student-loan/higher-education SAVING (the tax-cut cost side is booked under obbba-reconciliation-law, which books only the net revenue loss, so this saving is not double counted there). Layer 1 (direct federal): CBO's cost estimate for P.L. 119-21 as enacted (July 21, 2025; Table 8, Title VIII, total changes in direct spending) is -$284.022B in outlays over FY2025-2034: loan repayment/RAP (Subtitle C) -$269.1B, loan limits and end of Grad PLUS (Subtitle B) -$44.2B, delayed borrower-defense and closed-school-discharge rules (Subtitle F) -$16.7B, Pell shortfall and other Pell items (Subtitle D) +$10.6B, other small items, and interactions +$35.8B. (The loan subtitles alone plus interactions sum to about -$294.2B; the Title VIII total is used to match the event record. CRFB's "roughly $315 billion" at passage does not match the enacted-law table and is not used; the earlier "$295B" appears in no source.) CBO's window ends in FY2034, so net_cost_10yr_usd = -284,000,000,000 (no FY2035 year is added). 15yr: Title VIII's FY2034 outlay change is -$16.992B; holding it flat for FY2035-2040 (6 x -$16.992B = -$102.0B) gives ~-$386.0B through 2040 (CBO states Title VIII will not increase on-budget deficits after 2034). Layer 2: the prior ~$15B figure had no source and is set to 0; the household side of these savings (higher payments under RAP, lower borrowing limits) is real but not quantified by any source we can open (see decisions).

Why this is rated significant

Eliminates Grad PLUS loans, replaces income-driven repayment with a single plan, and caps borrowing - with CBO estimating the law's education title cuts federal spending by about $284B over 2025-2034 but narrowing access to graduate and professional education and raising payments for many low-income borrowers.

Corrections & updates [3]

Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.

  1. CorrectedSource

    Citation corrections: the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget post is dated Feb. 6, 2026 (updated Feb. 9), is specialist analysis (Tier 3, not Tier 2), and cites "roughly $315 billion" in CBO-projected student-loan savings - it does not contain the $295 billion figure. The CBO document's published title is "Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21 ... Relative to CBO's January 2025 Baseline" (July 21, 2025). The borrowing caps are now cited to the law text, which sets a $257,500 lifetime limit per student (excluding Parent PLUS) and Parent PLUS limits of $20,000 a year and $65,000 in total per dependent student; the previous "$20,000 per child" wording omitted that it is an annual limit.[1][2][3]

  2. CorrectedFigure

    The entry said CBO scored the student-loan changes at about $295 billion in federal savings. That figure does not appear in CBO's estimate or the other sources. CBO's July 21, 2025 estimate of Public Law 119-21 puts the law's education title (Title VIII) at a $284.0 billion reduction in direct spending over 2025-2034; within it, the loan-repayment changes account for about $269.1 billion and the new loan limits about $44.2 billion, partly offset by Pell Grant changes and interactions. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has cited roughly $315 billion in student-loan savings projected at passage. The entry now uses CBO's figure, attributed.[2][1]

  3. CorrectedCost estimate

    The ~$295B student-loan saving appears in no source. It now uses CBO's official table for the law as enacted: -$284.0B over 2025-2034 for the higher-education title (loan repayment, loan limits, delayed borrower-defense rules, net of the Pell funding increase). The 15-year figure is now derived from CBO's final-year number instead of an unsourced estimate. The ~$15B broader cost to borrowers had no source and was removed.

    Previously
    -$295B (10yr), -$350B (15yr), $15B broader
    Now
    -$284.0B (10yr), -$386.0B (15yr), $0 broader

Sources [3]

Image: Carol M. Highsmith, Public domain (Wikimedia Commons)

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