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The Cost

EPA rescinds greenhouse gas Endangerment Finding

Rescinding the GHG Endangerment Finding repealed all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards.

StatusIn effectImpactCritical · 5/5Sources6CorrectedSep 29, 2026

Key facts

  • Final rule effective April 20, 2026
  • All GHG standards for model years 2012-2027 simultaneously repealed
  • Groups sued Feb 18; 24 states sued March 19, 2026

Summary

On February 12, 2026, EPA finalized a rule rescinding the 2009 Endangerment Finding - the determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare - and simultaneously repealed all GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles of model years 2012-2027 and beyond. The rule was published in the Federal Register on February 18, 2026 and took effect April 20, 2026.

What happened

The reconsideration process began March 12, 2025; a formal proposal was signed July 29, 2025. After a 52-day public comment period receiving approximately 572,000 written comments, EPA finalized the rescission on February 12, 2026. The final rule removes the statutory basis under Clean Air Act Section 202(a) for regulating GHG emissions from motor vehicles. It also eliminated all model-year 2012-2027 GHG emission standards and associated averaging, banking, and trading (ABT) provisions. The final rule states that EPA separately regulates stationary sources under authorities outside the scope of this rulemaking. Seventeen health and environmental groups challenged the rule in the D.C. Circuit on February 18, 2026, and 24 states, joined by cities, counties and others, filed a second challenge on March 19, 2026.

Impact on the United States

The rescission ends EPA's claimed authority to set GHG standards for motor vehicles, and the AP reported it could unleash a broader undoing of climate regulations on stationary sources such as power plants and oil and gas facilities. Automakers that had planned model-year 2027+ vehicles to meet the vacated standards face investment uncertainty. Air quality benefits from avoided co-pollutants (NOx, PM) associated with cleaner vehicles are also lost.

Documented effects

  1. Federal Register publication on 2026-02-18 (Document 2026-03157) confirms the rule's effective date of April 20, 2026; all GHG standards for model years 2012-2027 vehicles simultaneously repealed.[1]
  2. Two D.C. Circuit challenges: No. 26-1037, filed February 18, 2026 by 17 health and environmental groups including the American Lung Association, Sierra Club and Environmental Defense Fund; and No. 26-1061, filed March 19, 2026 by 24 states, 10 cities, five counties, the District of Columbia and others, led by New York, Massachusetts, California and Connecticut. A petition asking EPA to reconsider the rule was filed April 16, 2026, and the parties moved to delay merits briefing pending EPA's response.[3]
  3. EPA separately proposed rescinding the greenhouse-gas findings for fossil-fuel-fired power plants and repealing their GHG emission standards[4]

Projected cost to Americans

Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (low confidence).

$280Bnow20352040
So far
$0
By 2035
$280.00B
By 2040
$280.00B

How this is calculated: One final rule (FR 2026-03157, effective April 20, 2026) both rescinded the 2009 Endangerment Finding and repealed all light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicle GHG standards, so its costs are split across two blocks and each dollar is booked once: this block carries ONLY the forgone CLIMATE benefit (Layer 2); vehicle-ghg-standards-rollback carries the consumer fuel/vehicle-price effect and the co-pollutant health effect. Layer 1 (direct federal) is 0 through FY2035 and 2040: the rule imposes no federal outlay and no published score attributes a federal budget effect to it (the prior ~$1.5B/yr federal figure was unsourced and has been removed). The September 2026 proposal to rescind the power-plant GHG findings is only proposed and is not booked. Layer 2: EPA's own final-rule analysis projects the repeal raises vehicle GHG emissions by 8,300 MMT CO2e cumulatively over CY2027-2055, reaching 410 MMT in CY2055 [S1]. Interpolating EPA's two anchors with a smooth ramp (annual increase proportional to t^0.44, which reproduces both 410 MMT in 2055 and 8,300 MMT cumulative) puts ~1,470 MMT (~18% of the total) in CY2027 through FY2035. Valued at EPA's 2023 central SC-CO2 of $190/metric ton (2020 dollars, 2020 emission year, 2% discount rate; later emission years carry higher values, e.g. $230 for 2030, so this is a floor) [S5] = ~$280B through FY2035. Caveats: the SC-CO2 measures global damages, not only damages to Americans; the rule is being challenged in the D.C. Circuit (Nos. 26-1037, 26-1061) and would not bite if vacated. For scale, Adler & Welty (The Regulatory Review) cite ~$87B/yr in climate damages the repealed standards would have avoided and >$2T cumulatively by 2055 [S2]. Low confidence (ramp shape and SC-CO2 choice).

Why this is rated critical

Rescinding the 2009 finding repealed all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards and, per AP, could unleash a broader undoing of climate rules for power plants and oil and gas, a systemic and far-reaching harm now in effect.

effective 2026-04-20; legal challenges pending

Corrections & updates [7]

Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.

  1. CorrectedKey facts

    Corrected the description of the lawsuits: 17 health and environmental groups challenged the rule in the D.C. Circuit on February 18, 2026 (No. 26-1037), and 24 states with cities, counties and others filed a second challenge on March 19, 2026 (No. 26-1061). A petition asking EPA to reconsider was filed April 16, 2026, and the parties moved to delay merits briefing pending EPA's response.[3]

  2. UpdatedStatus

    On September 17, 2026, EPA proposed rescinding the separate greenhouse-gas findings for fossil-fuel-fired power plants and repealing their GHG standards under section 111. This is the stationary-source step that the vehicle rule itself did not take.[4]

  3. CorrectedSummary

    The entry overstated the rule's reach. The final rule repeals vehicle GHG standards under Clean Air Act section 202(a)(1). It says EPA regulates stationary sources separately under authorities outside the scope of the rulemaking, and it contains no statement that EPA would not regulate under section 111. The AP reported that the repeal 'could unleash' a broader undoing of climate rules for power plants and oil and gas. The sentence saying California's waiver was unaffected was removed: Congress had already disapproved California's Advanced Clean Cars II waiver in June 2025 (Public Law 119-16). EPA's proposal was signed, not published, on July 29, 2025.[1][5][6]

  4. CorrectedKey facts

    States did not sue 'immediately'. Seventeen health and environmental groups challenged the rule in the D.C. Circuit on February 18, 2026 (No. 26-1037), and 24 states filed a second challenge on March 19, 2026 (No. 26-1061).[3][5]

    Previously
    20+ state AGs immediately filed legal challenges
    Now
    Groups sued Feb 18; 24 states sued March 19, 2026
  5. CorrectedForeign linkback

    Removed an unsourced passage on foreign automakers and US competitiveness abroad; no cited source supports it. Also corrected the comment count to 'approximately 572,000', as the final rule states.[1]

  6. ClarifiedSummary

    Replaced an unsourced line in the short description (automaker investment uncertainty) with the lawsuits documented in the entry.[3][5]

    + Show previous and current text
    Previously
    EPA finalized a rule rescinding the 2009 determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health and repealing all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards under the Clean Air Act. Automakers face investment uncertainty and consumers lose federal emissions floors.
    Now
    EPA finalized a rule rescinding the 2009 determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health and repealing all federal vehicle greenhouse-gas standards under the Clean Air Act. Health and environmental groups and 24 states have challenged it in the D.C. Circuit.
  7. CorrectedCost estimate

    Removed the $8.7B 'so far' figure: it treated EPA's 2,500 premature deaths projected for the year 2055 as an annual toll starting in 2026 and used ACEEE's full-fleet 2032 fuel-savings figure; the repealed standards only bite from model year 2027. Removed an unsourced federal-outlay projection. The climate cost is now derived from EPA's own final-rule emissions estimate (8,300 million tons CO2e over 2027-2055), about 1,470 million tons by FY2035, valued at EPA's $190/ton social cost of carbon. Consumer and health effects stay under the vehicle-standards entry so nothing is counted twice.

    Previously
    $8.7B so far; $15B / $25B federal 10yr/15yr; $600B broader 10yr
    Now
    $0 so far; $0 federal 10yr/15yr; $280B broader 10yr

Sources [6]

Image: 我爱波音哈, CC BY-SA 3.0 (Wikimedia Commons)

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