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The Cost
/Federal Government

75,000 federal workers accept resignation buyout

Mass simultaneous departures created agency knowledge gaps at a paid-leave cost GAO estimated at $6.7B for 2025.

StatusIn effectImpactSignificant · 3/5Sources5CorrectedSep 29, 2026

Key facts

  • ~75,000 employees accepted
  • $6.7B paid-leave cost in 2025, per GAO (~144,000 takers)
  • Offer: full pay and benefits through Sept 30, 2025

Summary

On January 28, 2025, OPM emailed all 2.3 million federal civilian employees offering a "deferred resignation" - full pay and benefits through September 30, 2025 in exchange for immediate cessation of work. Approximately 75,000 employees accepted by the time the offer closed on February 12, 2025, after a federal judge lifted a temporary pause (the original deadline was February 6).

What happened

The offer, styled "Fork in the Road" after Musk's similar communication at Twitter/X, required employees to either recommit to in-person work and administration priorities or resign with paid administrative leave through end of FY2025. Unions challenged the offer's legality, noting that Congress - not the executive - controls appropriations for salaries. A federal judge declined to block the offer in February 2025. The Partnership for Public Service estimated that deferred resignation payments across all 2025 rounds, taken by an estimated 137,000 employees, cost about $4.5 billion. The Government Accountability Office later estimated that agencies spent about $6.7 billion in 2025 on paid administrative leave tied to the program, covering about 144,000 participants in the agencies it analyzed.

Impact on the United States

Tens of thousands of experienced career civil servants left their positions simultaneously across dozens of agencies, creating immediate institutional knowledge gaps in areas such as benefits administration, regulatory enforcement, and scientific research. Agencies were simultaneously under pressure from DOGE to reduce headcount further, compounding operational stress.

Documented effects

  1. Approximately 75,000 federal employees accepted the buyout, per White House figures reported February 2025.[1]
  2. In an earlier estimate, deferred resignation payments across all 2025 rounds - taken by an estimated 137,000 employees - cost about $4.5 billion in salary and benefits paid to employees not working, per the Partnership for Public Service (reported by Federal News Network, April 2026).[2]
  3. GAO estimated that $6.7 billion of the $9.5 billion agencies spent on paid administrative leave in 2025 was tied to the deferred resignation program, which about 144,312 employees took; paid-leave workdays rose to about 21.6 million in 2025 from about 4.4 million in 2024[4][5]
  4. OPM Director Scott Kupor said the program would produce "$40 billion per year savings in taxpayer dollars"; GAO said that without an accurate understanding of paid-leave costs "there is no way to accurately determine to what extent the governmentwide cost-savings goal is being met"[4][5]

Projected cost to Americans

Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (medium confidence).

$7Bnow20352040
So far
$6.70B
By 2035
$6.70B
By 2040
$6.70B

How this is calculated: Largely resolved one-time episode: the deferred resignation program's paid leave ended Sept. 30, 2025, so 10yr = 15yr = the booked GAO figure. GAO estimates agencies spent more than $6.7B in salary costs on paid administrative leave tied to the deferred resignation program in calendar 2025 (about 70% of $9.5B in total paid-leave salary costs; about 144,312 DRP participants in the agencies GAO analyzed). GAO notes agency leave data could overstate usage (e.g. holidays coded as leave), but its estimate covers only the agencies in its review. Savings are NOT booked: the separations do reduce payroll after Sept. 2025, but no figure can be verified - OPM Director Kupor claims about $40B a year, while GAO said that without accurate paid-leave cost data "there is no way to accurately determine" whether the cost-savings goal is being met, and NPR reported agencies rehiring and spending more after the DOGE push. The earlier ~$1.5B savings figure and the contractor-backfill tail (+$1.0B/+$1.5B) were unsourced derivations (the savings side also used the 75,000 first-round count while the gross side covered all rounds), so both are removed. Layer 2 = 0.

Why this is rated significant

Induced ~75,000 experienced workers to leave in the first round (an estimated 137,000 across all 2025 deferred-resignation rounds, with paid-leave costs GAO put at ~$6.7B for 2025), creating real operational gaps across agencies but via voluntary departures.

Corrections & updates [6]

Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.

  1. CorrectedDate

    The offer did not close on February 6. A federal judge paused the program, then let it proceed on February 12, 2025, and OPM closed it that evening; about 75,000 employees had accepted (NBC News). The NBC source was also listed under the wrong headline.[1][3]

  2. CorrectedCost estimate

    The $4.5 billion Partnership for Public Service estimate covers all deferred resignation rounds in 2025, taken by an estimated 137,000 employees - not only the ~75,000 who accepted the first "Fork in the Road" offer. The Federal News Network report was published April 9, 2026.[2]

  3. UpdatedCost estimate

    Updated: on September 15, 2026 the Government Accountability Office estimated that agencies spent about $6.7 billion in 2025 on paid administrative leave for employees in the deferred resignation program, about 70% of the $9.5 billion spent on paid administrative leave that year, with about 144,312 participants. That official estimate replaces the earlier $4.5 billion estimate from the Partnership for Public Service as the entry's cost figure. GAO also said data problems mean there is no way to accurately determine whether the program's cost-savings goal is being met.[4][5]

  4. CorrectedWhat happened

    Removed the statement that a second 'Fork in the Road' round opened in April 2025, which none of the entry's sources (NPR, Federal News Network, GAO) supports.[3][4]

  5. ClarifiedSource labels

    Source tier labels brought in line with the site's tier rule (specialist and trade publications are Tier 3; general news organizations are Tier 2): Federal News Network (Tier 2 to 3); Federal News Network (Tier 2 to 3). No claim in the entry changed.

  6. UpdatedCost estimate

    GAO (Sept. 15, 2026) estimates the deferred resignation program cost more than $6.7B in 2025 in salary paid to employees on administrative leave, replacing the earlier $4.5B think-tank estimate. The previous $1.5B savings figure and the added future tail were our own unsourced estimates and are removed: GAO says the program's savings cannot be accurately determined, and OPM's claim of $40B a year is not verified.

    Previously
    $3B net ($4.5B cost, $1.5B saved); $4B 10yr; $4.5B 15yr
    Now
    $6.7B net ($6.7B cost, $0 saved); $6.7B 10yr; $6.7B 15yr

Sources [5]

Image: Tony Webster, CC BY 2.0 (Wikimedia Commons)

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