Worst US measles outbreak since 2000
More than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026 put measles-elimination status at risk for the first time since 2000.
Key facts
- 2,289 cases in 2025 - highest since elimination
- 3 deaths in the 2025 outbreak; Pa. reported 4 more in 2026
- About 280,000 kindergartners lacked documented MMR vaccination (2025-26)
Summary
Beginning in January 2025, a measles outbreak centered in Texas and New Mexico spread to 25+ states, producing 2,289 confirmed 2025 cases - the highest annual total since the US declared elimination in 2000. Three people died in the 2025 outbreak, and Los Angeles County reported a child's death from a late complication of a measles infection acquired in infancy. The outbreak continued into 2026 with 3,659 additional confirmed cases as of September 24, 2026, per CDC.
What happened
The 2025 southwest outbreak originated in an unvaccinated community in west Texas, rapidly spreading to New Mexico and Oklahoma. By April 17, 2025, 800 cases had been confirmed (MMWR); full-year 2025 cases reached 2,289 across 48 outbreaks. Three deaths occurred in 2025: two unvaccinated school-aged children in Texas and one unvaccinated adult in New Mexico - the first US measles deaths in approximately ten years. In September 2025, Los Angeles County reported the death of a school-aged child from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), a complication of a measles infection acquired in infancy. In 2026, Pennsylvania reported four measles-associated deaths; CDC's national tracker listed two 2026 deaths as of September 25. In 2026, a further 3,659 confirmed cases had been recorded as of September 24 across 40 new outbreaks, per CDC. The US is now at risk of losing its official measles-elimination status, with a regional review of the country's measles-elimination status postponed from April to November 2026. Vaccination rates had been sliding for years before 2025 - kindergarten MMR coverage was 92.5% in 2024-25, down from 95.2% pre-pandemic - and public-health experts warn that federal vaccine-skeptic messaging and the removal of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations from the childhood schedule (later reversed by court) risk deepening that decline.
Impact on the United States
Measles deaths: three in the 2025 outbreak (two unvaccinated children in Texas, one unvaccinated adult in New Mexico); a Los Angeles County child who died in 2025 of SSPE from a measles infection acquired years earlier as an infant; and four measles-associated deaths reported by Pennsylvania in 2026 (CDC's tracker listed two 2026 deaths as of September 25). More than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026; potential loss of WHO measles-elimination status conferred in 2000; about 280,000 kindergartners without documentation of completing the MMR series (2025-26 school year).
Documented effects
- 2,289 US measles cases in full-year 2025; highest since elimination declared in 2000; 3 deaths in the 2025 southwest outbreak[1][2]
- 3,659 confirmed cases in 2026 as of September 24, 2026, from 40 new outbreaks; more than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026[2]
- Kindergarten MMR coverage 92.5% in 2024-25 and 92.4% in 2025-26, below the 95% threshold; about 280,000 kindergartners lacked documentation of completing the MMR series in 2025-26[3][7]
- Pennsylvania reported four measles-associated deaths in 2026 (August-September), all unvaccinated; CDC's national tracker listed one 2026 death as of September 24 while a standard death definition is developed, and two in its September 25 update[4][5][2]
- PAHO moved its review of US measles elimination status to its regular meeting in November 2026, citing ongoing US analysis including complete viral genome sequencing[8]
Projected cost to Americans
Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (low confidence).
- So far
- $106M
- By 2035
- $4.61B
- By 2040
- $4.61B
How this is calculated: Layer 1: no source projects the federal share of future outbreak costs, so the 10yr and 15yr figures equal the booked amount (a floor); the earlier ~$130M/yr federal run-rate ($1.5B 10yr / $2.5B 15yr) had no source and is removed. Layer 2 (broader, borne by Americans): a Yale School of Public Health / Common Health Coalition model reported by NBC News projects that if measles vaccination keeps falling 1% a year for five years, US costs reach ~$1.5B a year (about $947M public-health response, $510.4M lost productivity and $41.1M medical costs a year) [S6]. Booked Layer 2 = a linear ramp to that level over 2026-2030 (0.2+0.4+0.6+0.8+1.0 x $1.5B = $4.5B), with nothing added after 2030; this replaces a $7.8B cumulative figure whose source (AAP News) could not be opened. The model assumes coverage keeps declining, which is itself uncertain.
Why this is rated critical
The first US measles deaths in about a decade, more than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026, and a pending review of US measles-elimination status - a serious and partly irreversible public-health harm.
Corrections & updates [10]
Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.
- UpdatedFigures
Case counts updated. CDC now reports 2,289 confirmed cases for full-year 2025 (previously listed as 2,288) and 3,659 confirmed cases in 2026 as of September 24, 2026 (previously 2,104 as of June 18), from 40 new outbreaks. The combined 2025-2026 total is now more than 5,900.[2]
- UpdatedDeaths
Pennsylvania has reported four measles-associated deaths in 2026 (two infants in Lancaster County in August, and two in September in Jefferson and Mifflin counties), all unvaccinated. As of late September 2026, CDC counted one 2026 measles death on its national tracker while it works with state epidemiologists on a standard definition for measles-associated deaths.[4][5]
- UpdatedElimination review
The regional review of US measles-elimination status, first set for April 2026, was postponed to November 2026 to coincide with the annual meeting of PAHO's regional verification commission (KFF).[6]
+ Show previous and current text- Hide previous and current text
- Previously
- The 2025 southwest outbreak originated in an unvaccinated community in west Texas, rapidly spreading to New Mexico and Oklahoma. By April 17, 2025, 800 cases had been confirmed (MMWR); full-year 2025 cases reached 2,288 across 48 outbreaks. Three deaths occurred in 2025: two unvaccinated school-aged children in Texas and one unvaccinated adult in New Mexico - the first US measles deaths in approximately ten years. A fourth death (a child, Los Angeles County) was later confirmed. In 2026, a further 3,659 confirmed cases had been recorded as of September 24 across 40 new outbreaks, per CDC. The US is now at risk of losing its official measles-elimination status, with a review of the country's measles-elimination status pending (its timing reportedly delayed). Vaccination rates had been sliding for years before 2025 - kindergarten MMR coverage was 92.5% in 2024-25, down from 95.2% pre-pandemic - and public-health experts warn that federal vaccine-skeptic messaging and the removal of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations from the childhood schedule (later reversed by court) risk deepening that decline.
- Now
- The 2025 southwest outbreak originated in an unvaccinated community in west Texas, rapidly spreading to New Mexico and Oklahoma. By April 17, 2025, 800 cases had been confirmed (MMWR); full-year 2025 cases reached 2,288 across 48 outbreaks. Three deaths occurred in 2025: two unvaccinated school-aged children in Texas and one unvaccinated adult in New Mexico - the first US measles deaths in approximately ten years. A fourth death (a child, Los Angeles County) was later confirmed. In 2026, a further 3,659 confirmed cases had been recorded as of September 24 across 40 new outbreaks, per CDC. The US is now at risk of losing its official measles-elimination status, with a regional review of the country's measles-elimination status postponed from April to November 2026. Vaccination rates had been sliding for years before 2025 - kindergarten MMR coverage was 92.5% in 2024-25, down from 95.2% pre-pandemic - and public-health experts warn that federal vaccine-skeptic messaging and the removal of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations from the childhood schedule (later reversed by court) risk deepening that decline.
- CorrectedKey facts / Source
The kindergarten-vaccination figures were attributed to a CDC measles update that does not contain them, and the "286,000 unprotected kindergartners" figure could not be found in any cited source. The 92.5% coverage figure (2024-25) is confirmed by PBS and KFF. CDC's latest SchoolVaxView data (2025-26 school year, published August 2026) put MMR coverage at 92.4% and about 280,000 kindergartners without documentation of completing the MMR series; the entry now uses that figure.[3][7]
- UpdatedKey facts
Updated: in its September 25, 2026 update CDC's national tracker listed two measles deaths in 2026, up from one.[2]
- UpdatedKey facts
Added the source for the postponed review: on March 2, 2026 PAHO said it would review US measles elimination status at its regular meeting in November 2026, citing ongoing US analysis including complete viral genome sequencing.[8]
- CorrectedDeaths and case count
The entry counted '4 deaths' as if all came from the outbreak, and gave 2,288 as the 2025 case total. Three people died in the 2025 Texas/New Mexico outbreak. The fourth death, which previously had no source, was a school-aged Los Angeles County child who died of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), a complication of a measles infection acquired in infancy, as the county health department announced on September 11, 2025. Separately, Pennsylvania has reported four measles-associated deaths in 2026, while CDC's national tracker listed two 2026 deaths as of September 25. CDC's full-year 2025 total is 2,289 confirmed cases.[9][2][4][5]
- ClarifiedSeverity rationale
The severity rationale characterized the outbreak as a 'public-health failure'; it now states the documented deaths, cases and elimination-status review. Severity unchanged.
+ Show previous and current text- Hide previous and current text
- Previously
- First US measles deaths in a decade with 5,900+ cases and elimination status at risk, a systemic and partly irreversible public-health failure.
- Now
- The first US measles deaths in about a decade, more than 5,900 cases across 2025-2026, and a pending review of US measles-elimination status - a serious and partly irreversible public-health harm.
- CorrectedDisplay copy
The summary said vaccine-skeptic messaging 'contributed to the scale' of the outbreak; the record says only that vaccination rates had been sliding for years and that experts warn federal messaging risks deepening the decline. The summary now matches the record.[3]
+ Show previous and current text- Hide previous and current text
- Previously
- A west Texas outbreak spread to dozens of states in 2025, producing the most cases since elimination and the first US measles deaths in a decade. Declining vaccination rates and vaccine-skeptic messaging contributed to the scale.
- Now
- A west Texas outbreak spread to dozens of states in 2025, producing the most cases since elimination and the first US measles deaths in a decade. Kindergarten vaccination rates had been sliding for years, and public-health experts warn that federal vaccine-skeptic messaging risks deepening that decline.
- CorrectedCost estimate
The booked cost now uses a published Johns Hopkins cost model (a fixed cost per outbreak plus about $16,197 per case) and CDC's current case count, replacing a per-case figure from a source that could not be opened and an unsourced Medicaid add-on. An unsourced federal run-rate is removed from the 10- and 15-year figures. The broader cost is rebuilt from Yale's verifiable $1.5B-a-year projection, replacing an unverifiable $7.8B total.
- Previously
- net $200M so far; 10yr $1.5B; 15yr $2.5B; broader $7.8B
- Now
- net $106M so far; 10yr $106M; 15yr $106M; broader $4.5B
Sources [9]
- T1CDC MMWR - Measles Update - United States, January 1-April 17, 2025 · Apr 24, 2025 ↗
- T1CDC - Measles Cases and Outbreaks (weekly updated surveillance page) · Jun 18, 2026 ↗
- T2PBS NewsHour - The U.S. is on the verge of losing its measles elimination status · Jan 20, 2026 ↗
- T3Healio - A fourth unvaccinated person with measles dies in Pennsylvania · Sep 15, 2026 ↗
- T2The Philadelphia Inquirer - CDC acknowledges one U.S. measles death after omitting Pa. data from its dashboard for weeks · Sep 24, 2026 ↗
- T3KFF - Measles Elimination Status: What It Is and How the U.S. Could Lose It · Apr 7, 2026 ↗
- T1CDC - SchoolVaxView: Vaccination Coverage and Exemptions among Kindergartners (2025-2026 school year data) · Aug 17, 2026 ↗
- T1Pan American Health Organization - Update on the review of measles elimination status · Mar 2, 2026 ↗
- T1Los Angeles County Department of Public Health - Public Health Reminds Residents About the Importance of Measles Vaccination Following the Death of a Child from a Measles-Related Complication · Sep 11, 2025 ↗
Image: CDC / Cynthia S. Goldsmith; William Bellini, Ph.D., Public Domain (US Government Work) (Wikimedia Commons)
