Forced-labor tariffs replace the expired global surcharge
As the Section 122 surcharge expired, 10-12.5% forced-labor tariffs took effect on 60 economies that supply 99.4% of US imports.
Key facts
- 60 economies supplying 99.4% of US imports
- $805.6B in 10-yr duties before offsets (Tax Foundation est.)
- Sued by importers and 25 states
Summary
On July 23, 2026, President Trump directed Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on 60 trading partners, citing each economy's failure to ban or effectively enforce a ban on imports made with forced labor. The tariffs took effect July 24, 2026, the day the temporary 10% Section 122 global surcharge expired. USTR says the 60 economies account for 99.4% of US imports.
What happened
USTR opened the 60 forced-labor investigations on March 12, 2026 and finalized action on July 23. Economies that ban forced-labor imports, have committed to do so in an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, or have a partial regime pay 10%; all others pay 12.5%. For the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan the rate is set net of the MFN duty. Exemptions cover goods under Section 232 tariffs, certain raw materials and supply-critical products, and, per trade press, Canadian and Mexican goods entered duty-free under USMCA. A senior administration official called it 'the most sweeping international labor rights action the United States has ever taken.' USTR Jamieson Greer told the Senate the administration would keep using tariffs to support 'the reindustrialization of our economy.' The tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. on July 24, when the 150-day Section 122 surcharge lapsed. A parallel Section 301 excess-capacity investigation of 16 economies was still pending.
Impact on the United States
The duties are paid by US importers on goods from economies that supply 99.4% of US imports, subject to exemptions. Yale Budget Lab puts the average statutory tariff rate at 11.0% after the switch and estimates that current-law tariffs (all authorities) cost households about $1,100 a year. Tax Foundation estimates this action will collect $805.6 billion in direct customs duties over 2026-2035 before income- and payroll-tax offsets, and projects long-run GDP 0.1% lower and 123,000 fewer full-time-equivalent jobs.
Documented effects
- 10% or 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on goods from 60 economies (which USTR says supply 99.4% of US imports) took effect 12:01 a.m. July 24, 2026, replacing the expired Section 122 surcharge[1][3][5][6]
- Yale Budget Lab: average statutory tariff rate at 11.0% after the Section 122-to-Section 301 switch; current-law tariffs cost about $1,100 per household annually and raise about $1.9 trillion over 10 years[7]
- Tax Foundation: the forced-labor tariffs will collect $805.6 billion in direct customs duties over 2026-2035 before income- and payroll-tax offsets ($571.6 billion in net revenue on a conventional basis), and will reduce long-run GDP 0.1% and hours worked by the equivalent of 123,000 full-time jobs[8]
- Importers including Burlap & Barrel and Learning Resources sued in the Court of International Trade on July 24, arguing USTR set rates first to replicate the invalidated IEEPA tariffs[10]
- 25 states sued in the Court of International Trade on August 3, calling the forced-labor rationale a pretext to revive tariffs the Supreme Court struck down; the White House defended the action as a lawful response to unfair trade practices[9]
Projected cost to Americans
Cumulative cost if current policy holds: direct federal cost plus the broader economic burden. A conservative, lower-bound estimate (low confidence).
- So far
- $8.00B
- By 2035
- $440.00B
- By 2040
- $440.00B
How this is calculated: This DURABLE tariff replaced the expired Section 122 surcharge on July 24, 2026. As with the Section 232 blocks, its customs revenue is neither a federal cost nor a federal saving, so Layer 1 is 0 for 10yr and 15yr. If the Court of International Trade strikes it down (importers and 25 states have sued), refunds and interest would become a Layer-1 cost like ieepa-tariffs-struck-down. That is NOT booked. Layer 2 (~$440B) is a conservative floor for the tax burden on US importers and consumers: Tax Foundation's DYNAMIC 10-year net revenue for this action, $440.5B for 2026-2035 [S1, Table 5], rounded down. The gross duties importers are projected to pay are higher: $805.6B in direct customs duties before income- and payroll-tax offsets [S1]. Using $805.6B x ~90% US-borne (the NY Fed pass-through used in web/scripts/tariff-consumer-cost.mjs) would give ~$725B, but that assumes the tariff survives the full decade at current rates, which the pending litigation makes uncertain, so the lower figure is used. Tax Foundation's long-run GDP effect (-0.1%, -123,000 FTE jobs) is not added, to avoid double counting. BOOKED (~$8B) is an estimate: $440.5B / 10 = ~$44B a year, x 67 days in effect (July 24 - Sept 29, 2026) / 365 = ~$8.1B, rounded down. No official collection figure for this authority alone was found.
Why this is rated severe
A 10-12.5% tariff on goods from 60 economies that supply 99.4% of US imports puts a broad, ongoing tax on US importers and consumers. It is the third successive global tariff regime, after the IEEPA tariffs were struck down and the Section 122 surcharge expired.
took effect July 24, 2026; challenged at the Court of International Trade by importers and 25 states
Sources [10]
- T1The White House - Actions by the United States in the Investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 of the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor · Jul 23, 2026 ↗
- T1Office of the United States Trade Representative - Fact Sheet: USTR Section 301 Action in Response to the Failure of 60 Economies to Ban Imports Produced with Forced Labor · Jul 23, 2026 ↗
- T1Office of the United States Trade Representative - Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor · Jul 23, 2026 ↗
- T1Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov) - Legal Authority for Section 301 Tariffs to Address Forced Labor and Excess Manufacturing Capacity (LSB11460) · Jul 21, 2026 ↗
- T2CNBC - Trump imposes 'sweeping' new tariffs on 60 trade partners as global duties expire · Jul 23, 2026 ↗
- T2CBS News - Here are the new tariff rates on dozens of countries targeted by President Trump · Jul 24, 2026 ↗
- T3The Budget Lab at Yale - The State of U.S. Tariffs (updated August 24, 2026) · Aug 24, 2026 ↗
- T3Tax Foundation - Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War · Sep 10, 2026 ↗
- T2Al Jazeera (with Reuters and AP) - Trump administration sued by 25 states over new tariffs on trading partners · Aug 4, 2026 ↗
- T3FreightWaves - Importers sue over forced labor tariffs on 60 economies · Jul 28, 2026 ↗
Image: CBP Photography, Public domain (Wikimedia Commons)
