A 25% tariff on Brazil, round two

Summary

On July 15, 2026, the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective July 22, 2026, after a USTR determination that Brazil's digital-trade, electronic-payments, ethanol, IP and deforestation policies are 'unreasonable' and burden US commerce. It exempts coffee, beef, orange juice, some energy products and aircraft parts.

What happened

After the Supreme Court struck down the administration's IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, the White House pivoted to Section 301 as its country-specific enforcement tool. USTR issued a determination (Federal Register notice June 4, 2026) finding Brazil's acts on digital trade, electronic payments, preferential tariffs, IP protection, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation unreasonable and burdensome to US commerce. On July 15, 2026, President Trump directed a 25% ad valorem tariff on most Brazilian-origin goods, effective July 22, 2026, with exemptions for coffee, beef, oranges and orange juice, some oil and gas, aerospace parts, rare earths and pig iron. This follows the earlier 50% IEEPA-based Brazil tariff (a 10% April 2025 baseline plus a 40% July 2025 surcharge tied to Brazil's prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro) that lapsed when the IEEPA tariffs were invalidated. Lula condemned the move and vowed WTO retaliation.

Impact on the United States

Raises costs for US importers and consumers of Brazilian goods (steel, machinery, wood and pulp, footwear, food products) at a 25% rate on roughly $40B of annual imports before exemptions, and invites Brazilian retaliation against US exporters (ethanol, agriculture, tech), adding a targeted layer of trade-war uncertainty on top of the 12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariff that replaced the expired Section 122 global surcharge on July 24.

Global ripple effects

A US measure targeting Brazil, justified by a USTR Section 301 finding that Brazil's digital-trade, electronic-payments, ethanol, IP and deforestation policies burden US commerce; follows earlier IEEPA tariffs politically tied to Brazil's prosecution of former president Bolsonaro.

Documented effects

1. Jul 15, 202625% Section 301 tariff on most Brazilian goods announced July 15, 2026, effective July 22, 2026[1][2]
2. Jun 4, 2026USTR Section 301 determination on Brazil's digital-trade, ethanol, IP and deforestation policies[3][4]
3. Jul 15, 2026Exemptions for coffee, beef, orange juice, some energy products and aircraft parts[1][5]
4. Jul 16, 2026Brazil condemned the tariffs and vowed to retaliate[6]
5. Jul 22, 202625% Section 301 tariff on Brazilian goods took effect July 22, 2026[7]
6. Jul 24, 2026Separate Section 301 forced-labor action imposed a 12.5% tariff on products of Brazil (with exemptions) from July 24, 2026[8][2]

Why this is rated significant

New 25% duty on roughly $40B of annual Brazilian imports (major staples exempt) raises input and consumer costs and invites retaliation, but is country-specific and partly carved out, so realized harm is moderate.

25% tariff effective July 22, 2026; a separate 12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariff on Brazilian goods applies from July 24, 2026

Corrections & updates [6]

Every change to a fact on this page after publication is logged here, newest first.

1. Sep 29, 2026UpdatedCost estimate

   Once the tariff took effect on July 22, 2026, it was costed with the same method now used for all durable tariffs: Tax Foundation's dynamic 10-year net revenue as a conservative floor for the burden on US importers and consumers, with the cost so far pro-rated by the days the tariff has been in effect (an estimate).

   Previously

   $0 so far; $20B broader 10-year cost

   Now

   ~$0.3B so far; $16B broader 10-year cost

2. Sep 29, 2026UpdatedStatus

   The 25% tariff took effect on July 22, 2026 (USTR notice of action, Federal Register July 20, 2026). Separately, in a Section 301 action on forced-labor import enforcement, USTR imposed a 12.5% tariff on products of Brazil, with exemptions, applicable from July 24, 2026 (Federal Register July 28, 2026). CNBC had reported it could be added on top of the 25%.[7][8][2]

   Previously

   ongoing (takes effect July 22, 2026)

   Now

   in-effect (25% tariff effective July 22, 2026; a separate 12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariff on Brazilian goods applies from July 24, 2026)

3. Sep 29, 2026ClarifiedSource

   The ~$40B annual import figure is now sourced: Census Bureau data show US goods imports from Brazil of $39.9 billion in 2025. The Federal Register determination's full title has also been corrected.[9]

4. Sep 29, 2026UpdatedUS impact

   Updated: the entry said the Section 122 global surcharge "nears its July 24 statutory sunset". It expired that day and was replaced by Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, including a 12.5% rate on Brazilian goods (Federal Register).[8]

   + Show previous and current text- Hide previous and current text

   Previously

   Raises costs for US importers and consumers of Brazilian goods (steel, machinery, wood and pulp, footwear, food products) at a 25% rate on roughly $40B of annual imports before exemptions, and invites Brazilian retaliation against US exporters (ethanol, agriculture, tech), adding a targeted layer of trade-war uncertainty as the temporary Section 122 global surcharge nears its July 24 statutory sunset.

   Now

   Raises costs for US importers and consumers of Brazilian goods (steel, machinery, wood and pulp, footwear, food products) at a 25% rate on roughly $40B of annual imports before exemptions, and invites Brazilian retaliation against US exporters (ethanol, agriculture, tech), adding a targeted layer of trade-war uncertainty on top of the 12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariff that replaced the expired Section 122 global surcharge on July 24.

5. Sep 29, 2026CorrectedSource

   The entry described the earlier IEEPA tariff on Brazil as a 10% April 2025 baseline plus a 40% July 2025 surcharge, but cited no source for this. Two executive orders now support it. Executive Order 14323 (July 30, 2025) imposed an additional 40% duty on Brazil, citing the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, on top of the Executive Order 14257 duty. Executive Order 14257 (April 2, 2025) set the 10% baseline rate.[10][11]

6. Sep 29, 2026ClarifiedDisplay copy

   Replaced informal wording ('killed') with 'struck down'.

   Previously

   After the Supreme Court killed his IEEPA tariffs, Trump hit Brazil again under Section 301, effective July 22.

   Now

   After the Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA tariffs, Trump hit Brazil again under Section 301, effective July 22.

Sources [11]